Here are some calculations how Finland can qualify for the Euros

Here are some calculations how Finland can qualify for the Euros.

Finland has played to this point at "20 point pace" (6 + 6 p From Armenia and Liechtenstein, 4 + 4 p home win and away draws from Bosnia and Greece, 0 p from Italy). If rest of the games are played at the same pace within 3-2-1-record, The groups other teams maximum points are: Italy 30, Armenia 21, Bosnia-Hertsegovina 20 (with Finland having the tie-break, Greece 17, Liechtenstein 15.

With these results Finland will qualify if Armenia loses at least 1 point in the group against someone else except Finland. It is noteworthy that Armenia still have two games against Italy. Bosnia on other hand has the "easiest" game schedule from the group, with both of the Liechtenstein games still up. Thus the scenario where Bosnia will lose great amount of points is not likely.

Under here there are all the scenarios where the point pace of Finland is deviated with 1 deviate result (andd the most likely two deviation scenarios). Under you can see the math on how many points other countries need to lose on their games against opponents who are not finland, so that Finland would be at least at the second place in the group. Due to impossiblity to lose just 1 point (when you draw you lose -2), thus the calculatory -1 point is marked as -2 points.

Attached: 77f0ba5b.png (400x321, 78K)

Results that follow the point pace of Finland

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 20 p
Is required from other games:
* Armenia -2 p

>one deviation from point pace

Any deviation from the budgeted pace upwards = 21+ p
* Group stage is certain, no matter other results

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (1 p), ITA (0 p) = 18 p
* Armenia -3 p
* Bosnia-H -2 p

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (0 p), ITA (0 p) = 17 p
* Armenia -4 p
* Bosnia-H -3 p
* Liechtenstein -2 p

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (1 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 18 p
* Armenia -4 p
* Bosnia-H -2 p

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (0 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 17 p
* Armenia -7 p or -8 p (depends on the tie-break)
* Bosnia-H -3 p

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (3 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 19 p
* Armenia -2 p
* Bosnia-H -2 p
* Greece 0 p or -2 p (depends on the tie-break)

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (2 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 18 p
* Armenia -3 p
* Bosnia-H -2 p
* Greece 0 p or -2 p (depends on the tie-break)

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (1 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 17 p
* Armenia -4 p
* Greece -4 p
* Bosnia-H -3 p

9 p + BIH (0 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 19 p
* Armenia -2 p
* Bosnia-H -3 p or -4 p (depends on the tie-break)

The last two results are the worst one game deviations from the budgeted points. The scenario where Finland will lose to Armenia at home, is unlikely because it would require Armenia to win Italy twice.

Attached: 2ffdf56c.jpg (1000x728, 60K)

Some two deviation scenarios.

There are approximately 50 two deviation scenarios, even if you didnt calculate the results where both of the deviations are higher than the current point pacing of finland or if the deviations would result at the same pace that Finland is currently playing. (i.e. Win Italy, but lose to Liecthenstein)

On the following calculations, the Italy and Liechtenstein results are fixed on the current pace. Additionally I assume that Armenia will at least draw their game against Finland.
Thus thre is 15 scenarios left. The first one where Bosnia and Greece are beaten at their hometurf is trivial.

9 p + BIH (3 p), GRE (6 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 24 p
* Sure qualifaction

The next six scenarios include +1 deviation and -1 deviation from the current pace.

9 p + BIH (3 p), GRE (3 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 21 p
* Sure qualification

9 p + BIH (3 p), GRE (2 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 20 p
* Armenia -2 p

9 p + BIH (3 p), GRE (1 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 19 p
* Armenia -2 p
* Greece -2 p

9 p + BIH (3 p), GRE (4 p), ARM (1 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 20 p
* Armenia -2 p

9 p + BIH (0 p), GRE (6 p), ARM (3 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 21 p
* Bosnia-H -2 p

9 p + BIH (1 p), GRE (6 p), ARM (1 p), LIE (3 p), ITA (0 p) = 20 p
* Armenia -2 p

Attached: 1470113858001.jpg (657x527, 37K)

>Dutch mathematics

It's no wonder you're the only Western country with zero fields medalists.

Finnish expat.

Dutch mathematician

didn't you post this exact thread yesterday? complete with the same apus?
anyway it's still based and we WILL have a pukki party when it's all over

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Yes, but I thought there would be more finns awake at this moment, compared to 3 am.

YED S YES

I hate maths