What the fuck?

Vegas lines are frequently significantly affected by the conventional wisdom of bettors

what was the Lakers preseason odds to make the playoffs

He has weaknesses and is very arrogant hand waving them away, but all things considered Nate Silver's models are pretty sharp, light years beyond any other publicly available source

And yet still better insight than FiveThirtyReddit

>everybody
Cringe. Intelligent people such as myself always knew he would win.

>ITT: anons that let reddit live rent free in their heads

If you always knew he was going to win, then your view was not based on actual evidence, but on faith

The thing is that the national polls predicted that he would lose the national popular vote by 2-3 points, and those polls were correct, he did. Usually, people who lose the national poll don't win the election. But he got a late swing in a handful of states that were consistently underpolled throughout the cycle. Which is something that Silver pointed out before the election, and was the reason that Silver gave him a chance to win.

t. Reddit: The Country

national popular vote means nothing in the electoral college you literal negative iq dotard

Their NBA predictions are basically: LOL HOME COURT WINS

Any boomer you pluck off the street could give you the same insight.

He gave Trump a better chance than anyone else.

>tf
>tp
the german peoplekind disagree

That's not even the point I'm making. National polls are still useful evidence for who's going to win the election, even though the electoral college exists. They're limited, and Silver's analysis correctly pointed out their limitations.

I mean, yeah, it seems obvious to predict that the team with home court advantage would beat the team missing their best player

and yet

OH NO NO NO

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>I mean, yeah,
Back to r*ddit, zoomer

>boomer claims that home court advantage doesn't exist

single digit iq

The “evidence” was not actually evidence at all. See: Bernie winning Michigan despite being down by like 25% and Trump winning states he had never led in a single poll like Wisconsin and Michigan. The only “faith” there was was unshakable faith in polls that were wrong.

you dont know me bitch

To be quite honest the only thing keeping them out of the playoffs was Lebron’s injury.

Clearly they’re not. Only state polls matter. Oh wait, they don’t either (see: Wisconsin).

But Silver was the guy who did not have unshakable faith in the polls. These are the exact arguments that Silver was making about why Trump had a chance to win. That's why other people thought Clinton had a 99% chance to win, whereas Silver thought she had a 60% chance to win.

I'm saying any boomer knows home court advantage matters. You could get the same insight from your neighbor drinking miller lite and riding around on his john deere that you will get from 9000IQ numbers prodigy Nate Trashcan. Also, learn to read.

winning by 40% in commie states means fucking nothing in the general election retard

wrong, lonzo's real injury was what tanked the team, not lebron's fake injury

Who does this dumbass think is going to win in 2020? I need to put money on the other guy

State and national polls both provide some amount of evidence but are not entirely determinative. There's a space in between "polls mean literally nothing" and "polls are literally always correct".

Again, that's not even the argument that I'm making.

Usually, the person who wins the national vote also wins the electoral college vote. So if someone is leading in the national vote, it means that it's more likely that they're going to win the electoral college vote. It didn't happen in this election, but that doesn't make the reasoning wrong.

I’m not talking about Silver, stay on topic. You’re saying people who thought Trump would win big like Scott Adams we’re basing it on feels, instead of predicting big turnouts by white blue collars in the Midwest, while the wrong people were smarter with their faulty evidence.

he definitely didn’t have him above 15% you apologist

they were playing way over their heads even before Lebron's injury

their defense was just such total trash esp when Lonzo went out

>Usually, the person who wins the national vote also wins the electoral college vote. So if someone is leading in the national vote, it means that it's more likely that they're going to win the electoral college vote.
Correlation does not imply causation, brainlet. You should have just posted this assumption first so we all could have known we were wasting our time from the beginning.

I think that the people who predicted that Trump didn't have a chance were also wrong. 100% and 0% were equally incorrect predictions.

But yes, I think the people who predicted that he would definitely win were mostly basing it on feels. I think Silver's estimation of the chances was pretty close to reasonable, based on the evidence available at the time.

If I say I'm going to flip a coin and I'm 100% sure it's going to be heads, and then it is heads, that doesn't mean I was right about the chances. Do you see what I'm saying?

538 had him at 29% on election day and 35% on November 4th

Yes. Correlation does not indicate causation or certainty, which is why Silver did not have Hillary at 100%. But it's still useful evidence even if it's not 100% certain. What you're trying to do is look at the available evidence and get as much useful information about it as possible.

everyone thought Hilary had a 90-95% chance of winning.

Nate had Hilary at 65-72% chance.

If Nate Shitstain was really so smart he would've baked that into his projection.

See if you can spot LeFraud.

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Did you not understand his point at all you fucking neanderthal?

bookies odds where about 85/15

win share is a completely useless stat

538's algorithm may have given Trump more chance than the general consensus, but Nate Silver's personal opinions were flat out wrong from the start. He repeatedly said Trump had no chance of even winning the Republican nomination.

Win Share is a counting stat and Lebron missed time for injuries

also BPM / VORP are better stats than Win Shares

>muh national polls
>SHE WON

literally too stupid to tie your own shoes

>i dont understand probability: the post

He was wrong about the nomination (which was based on his personal punditry) but much more correct than the general consensus about the general election (which was based on actual statistical models)

Nobody ITT is arguing that SHE WON

if you're trying to figure out who's going to win before the election, and you know that one candidate will win the national poll, it's reasonable to think that candidate also has a higher chance of winning the electoral college

So I guess Biden has a good chance to win it all this year?

I'm looking forward to this.

I don't think Biden has a chance to win 2020 but it's longshot.