Is soccer the most brainlet sport? Why can’t soccer manager figure out how to take advantage of statistics?

this might be the dumbest thing ive read that wasnt bair

Moneyball

>managers don't use statistics
Are you retarded?

Baseball is the perfect sport for analytics though tbf

When "Quantifying Ngubu" comes out I am gonna preorder 10 copies.

Something like corsi and fenwick in hockey

Yes, surely the answer why statistics aren't used in soccer is because every manager is a brainlet. Fucking dumbass

because american football and basketball are a series of set plays that you have massive sample sizes to develop reliable statistics that give an accurate representation of what is happening on the field/court
that isn't how football works

You fucking americans are retarded with your statistics

Some of the extrapolations are true brainlet mode

>NA math

math is a spook
math don't real

You’re an idiot lmao

Soccer and hockey are very similar and hockey has fully embraced the advanced statistics revolution while soccer is still woefully stuck in the Stone Age

Flashy niggers like Coutinho and Vinicius sell for a fortune but players who actually produce like England’s brave Glenn Murray get totally ignored

Nba used to be the same, coaches were obsessed with having a big massive center and PF until just a few years ago when teams realized it’s more efficient to chuck threes than defend and dominate the paint

Is using stats why the US lost to T&T and missed the world cup?

That doesn’t mean it doesn’t apply elsewhere. Look at how the nba has shifted in the last 20-30 years

Soccer is the most subtle sport of all. You could have a player like Deli Ali who you think is bad. If you watch the game you don't see Ali but if you watch Ali you see the game.

>basketball is a series of set plays
Wat

>be Mike D'Antoni
>read muh analytics and advanced stats
>they say to meme chuck it to infinity and beyond
>lose
Wow, so this is... the power of math.

it's a 24 seconds on a small playing area where the coach/point guard calls a play and you run it
sure you have options if the play breaks down or if the defence do something unexpected but you these are situations you can and do replicate not only in training thousands of times over but 100+ times every single game

outside of set pieces (corners, throw ins, free kicks, penalties) in football, there are essentially infinite different scenarios a team can find themselves in - where are they, where is the ball, where is the opposition

What about hockey you stinky Brit

All the execs heavily use fenwick and corsi when building a teak

Scouting in soccer consists of “he has nice dribbles and runs fast let’s buy him”

In the 90s players like Andre Drummond and Demar DeRozan who “pass the eye test” would be considered elite but now we can see they’re actually shit cause of stats

australian rules football tracks a lot of stats and it probably has the same stoppage intervals as football

i've never watched a game of hockey or aussie rules in my life so i'll take your word for it

i'm relatively sure scouting in football is more in-depth than you suggest, especially given how most mid-level teams stay afloat by buying players cheap and then selling them off a couple of years later for a much inflated price

(((stat tracking)))
I would stay away from that stuff. The NBA uses Jewish missle technology to track stats and RIG games.

Why are you retards trying to claim managers don't use stats in football?

You cant honestly believe this

>basketball is a series of set plays

You're fucking retarded

i do

Well then you are incredibly stupid

not really an argument there

Because retards like this give soccer a bad name

I wasn’t trying to argue with you. Merely stating a fact. That you are incredibly stupid

Basketball is almost as free as flowing as soccer. The shot clock exist so that teams don't pull the faggy shit that happens in soccer where a team just passes the ball around midfield for 10 minutes at a time. Plays exist, but gameplay is not stopped just to call them unless it's the last two minutes of the game. You've obivously never even played a single game of pick up basketball if you think point guards are calling detailed plays on every single possession.

Go watch bielsa's PowerPoint presentation with the media, then we'll talk

I thought ameristats was just a meme but then I started watching NBA this season and you people are really crazy about statistics. Why?

you cant compare pick up basketball to professional basketball
pros do practice these half court scenarios every single day; teams don't just accidentally find themselves running horns or calling pick and rolls or whatever

Football isn't that easy. You can't win games by using statistics alone there are loads of contributing factors. Maybe in American football you can rely heavily on stats e.g. one guy might cover a running distance in x amount of time so you can time your play for the run or something but in football that's meaningless because it's not as cut and dry like that.

Some player might score 30 goals in some statpad league but might perform worse than another player who scored less goals but showed overall better technique and pitch IQ in his own statpad league, when both play in a much harder league.

And soccer players don’t practice? Wtf are you on about?

>You can't win games by using statistics alone there are loads of contributing factors
Said every baseball manager in 1954

It's not the managers that are brainlets, it's the fans. Big clubs already have huge analytics departments but their data and stats aren't publicly available. Liverpool was actually one of the first to hop on the advanced stats train thanks to their American owners.

of course they do, but specific scenarios are harder to practice because the field is so much larger and the defensive shape you'll be up against is so much harder to predict

Because they are useful for comparing players? Go to any American sports thread and it will be easy to get (mostly) objective rankings of players and their skill based on stats. In your gay povertyball threads people argue about which players are better but have no means to discern who is better and always resort to "if you saw him play you'd know he was the GOAT". We have statistics so we know who is good and who isn't.

It would be essential to predict if you used analytics

Those flashy cunts had great stats, look them up. Glenn Murray gets ignored for the same reason Rickie Lambert was shit at Liverpool, it's because stats don't mean dick. The system/league babby meme exists because there are certain intangible traits that can't be captured in numbers that affect how a player will fit into a favourable or awkward system.
Glenn Murray does well as a target man, bringing his team into the game because his team has a direct play style, this is probably something you can see and prove with stats but it's a wasted effort because it's much easier to just see it happen in person

there's no equivalent in football to those really well-liked single number yank stats (e.g. per in basketball, war in baseball) and it'll probably be many years before a reliable one has developed

xg has its uses but it's still a long way away from the be all and end all of football (as you can see because it's often highly inaccurate as to what actually happens on the field)

Soccer is gay

>teams don't just accidentally find themselves running horns or calling pick and rolls or whatever

They actually do which is how we can tell you've never played basketball. Basketball is one of the only American sports where unorganized amateur play is not much different than the professional sport. The game of basketball is so heavily influenced by talent that calling plays is virtually irrelevant if one team has a Michael Jordan and the other is a bunch of G-Leaguers. Plays only matter for teams with shit players because good teams just have chemistry and a general strategy/tactic.

Next you´re going to suggest to use videos to check controversial plays, fuck off.

There are stats posted in every single Messi vs Ronaldo thread you fucking retard. Any other thread comparing players has stats posted too, you're either a lying faggot or you're shitposting

Caveman kick ball is about as basic as it gets. Come of it already.

>Goals/Assist

That's literally it. Dribbles complete is a meme that you know no one cares about.

this. how will any indio goblino shithole ever win anything again in concacrap if all the goblino refs can't screw USA and Canada at every chance anymore?

The stats used in soccer debates are brainlet stats like goals and assists. If you tried to talk baseball and mentioned shit like RBIs you'd be laughed at for using retarded boomer stats.

What the fuck is xGoals

>hurrr no one uses stats
>wait i meant they only use goals/assists
People post far more stats than that too. Confirmed for being a shitposting retard, enjoy your last reply.

using statistics would be so easy. Like for example you could find some data that shows messi converts at a very high rate when shooting from the right of the GK just outside of the box with his left foot, or something to that extent

Then you build you gameplan allowing messi to get the ball in that situation, it’s really quite simple

Another thing that would be easy to analyze is tackle and interception rate for midfielders. If big clubs used that they would have bought players like Kante or Torreira much earlier

Have you ever played in a match? There aren't many stats that are relevant other than the big obvious ones desu. What would you like to see? Number of touches on each foot? Touches before passing? Crosses Vs cutbacks? I'm confused which epic stats I'm missing that would actually help anything

It's supposed to be goals scored or goals for but some autist made that

Expected goals, it's worked out using Jewish trickery and voodoo, largely means fuck all which kinda disproves OPs point

>people think they can predict how many goals teams will score or concede
Wait why is that a thing?

Stats mean fuck all. In 2015 I remember fucking Mathieu Flamini had the highest pass completion percentage in the premier league. Does that suddenly mean he's on the same tier as Xavi? Fuck no this argument is retarded. Some players stats are so good yet they contribute nothing to the actual game. A winger can make 50 successful dribbles a game but it could all be in his own half and it doesn't mean shit if he doesn't contribute anything worthwhile to the game. If you told some zoomer amerilard that stat he'd think the guy is fucking Messi.

If your gameplan is to restrict your opponents movement in football then you will lose, it's incredibly difficult. Messi instead would just react to the situation and play in a teammate in those positions. It's way too fluid of a game, this is why teams choose to man mark Messi, because it's the only way to affect decision making but you lose a man for the entire game

Maybe Americans should lead the charge and be an easily adapter of stats then. See if they can use stats to finally get a world cup placing.

not that guy, but things involving passing success with right/left foot and whatnot could use a little more development in terms of metrics. you have obvious one-footed players like robben, but say some guy looks decent with both feet dribbling the ball but is far less accurate with his passing to the left rather than the right or something. similarly you could have someone who plays as a centre mid but has a much better first touch getting the ball from the right side of the pitch than the left side. I'm just speaking in hypotheticals, but there is definitely some room for statistical development in the game. would the metrics actually prove to be beneficial in analyzing player performance or team management? who knows, but it could be worth looking into

Soccer in general is stuck in the stone age. Video replay didn't even exist until last year lmao.

One more stat that can have a sponsor, 5 more seconds of air time saying that extra stat in the soulless husk that is an american sports studio.

Because of cunts like OP. There are massive organisations trying to figure out football using stats and that piece of shit is the best they could come up with. OP is just suffering from dunning-kreuger syndrome, because he knows little of the game he's simplifying it a lot and this makes him think he knows how to solve football. In reality though stats are used, but more for defensive positioning and decision making

OP give us an example of some stats they should analyzing so everyone in this thread can laugh at you.

All of these things are obvious to the naked eye though, and when you're playing you cotton on to them really quickly, it's natural. I mean those stats are used by coaches I'm certain of that but I don't think they're very useful for a fan

Stats just aren't transferable league to league. Even within a league it's difficult. This is simply because different teams and leagues have different playstyles and meta. It's why some players have unbelievable stats at one team or in one league, make a big money move and then just flop and end their whole career.

Home away splits?

Baseball and handegg largely consist of what would be considered a set piece in football. It's much easier to measure that, than to make any meaningful statistics for open play in football. Even xG works so-so, there's no uniform approach to calculating it.

>mfw Yea Forums brainlets cannot into Packing and Impect tho

mustafi is better than van dijk confirmed

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Is this supposed to prove your point OP? Those numbers are all over the place and worthless

Dude just use stats to win lmao

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the french also play rugby yes?
plenty of stats in both rugbies also and some you can bet on

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_Football

Why don’t soccer managers even use something as simple as this?

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How is that relevant to soccer?

Eurobros and latinbros, dont even reply to this dumb thread
Americans are fat and retarded

They already have this without making it into an advanced heuristic. See: shots on target, total shots, shots blocked/stopped.

Making it one variable is pointless. Blocked shots are irrelevant if you have total shots. Total shots are irrelevant to shots on target, which is used to determine the effectiveness of a team's offense.

Yes, rugby is quite popular here. Not a big fan and can't tell if there's a big difference in rules

>Americans

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All I know is, all I know is... our sports are more advanced than you basic primordial sport.

open your eyes and ears unless you ignore irl data in your life also

me dumb
me need composite index of composite index

>americans

i'm not talking wildly errant balls, but if a guy has like a 98% successful passing rate going to the right winger but like a 94% rate going to the left winger out of 1000 passes attempted, you'd rather have that guy passing to the left. obviously the difference in quality of players he is passing to play into this as well and that is nearly impossible to quantify, but looking at the numbers in a slightly different way completely altered the way we look at boreball players just in the past twenty years.

I say this as someone who wakes up early every saturday and sunday to watch EPL matches (you wouldn't believe the shit they'll put on here as the featured match. It could be Arsenal-Chelsea, City vs Spurs and ManU vs Fulham will be the match they show). I don't know if the metrics will show anything but most of them even in something like football manager are completely grug-tier.
>how much he run?
>how fast he run?
>how much he score goal?
you can have a centerback who is an absolute beast in the air and wins damn near every challenge, but his team fails to retain possession 20% of the time from his headers or a player who might not be able to out jump/position certain players as well as the other guy, but is spot on with getting that ball somewhere it gives his team a better chance of getting possession

xg is a great stat but people comically misuse it
what it isn't is a "this what happened in the game" stat and if it were then it would be a terrible stat because it'd be wrong like 30% of the time

individual stats (even in shitty yank sports) can rarely tell you everything boiled down to one number; they tell you aspect of a game or a team or player's specific strengths and weaknesses

there is a difference but all you need to know is both barely stop for two 40minute halves and they use plenty of stats to make decisions what the players should do like a football team practicing crossing or corners

it does take advantage of statistics, thats what the actual teams and pundits do
the fans actually watch the game instead of watching alternating stat sheets and advertisments while the game is on its 17th break of the night

This is why basedball is the best sport.

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nigga do you even play football manager on steam. gtfo

It has its merits but only autists take it at full value

You completely ignore tactics in your first scenario. Passes completed isn't in a vacuum, it's also a matter of circumstance. If an opposing team knows you have a clinical left midfielder/winger, they'll always man/ball mark him. Passing to him to create chances would actually be statistically worse in this scenario. Also midfielders are not just determined by their passing ability, but by other variables such as their ability to create space, close down defenders, positioning, etc. These are all weighted against opposing teams, who are also studying these stats. Every club facing City when KDB is playing knows KDB has long, cutthroat passes. So they always attempt to close his passing lanes to attackers, or try to shut him down individually by ball marking him because he's quick to let the ball go if he's overwhelmed (so man marking him is pointless).

Also CBs don't play for possession. Most teams don't play for possession. They play on the ball possession, so the stat you'd be looking for is how often is a possessed team attacking/moving forward. Pure possession means absolutely nothing. CBs also don't have the same roles. A CB like Hummels will always clear the ball vs. a CB like Mascherano who will play it safe.

You seem to treat every position in a vacuum and completely ignore the tactical implications each player has attached to them. A CB with a 100% possession or a CM with a 100% passing to a specific player indicates nothing outside a game-per-game basis.

My favourite stat? Goal differential aka who won the game

soccerstats.com/homeaway.asp?league=italy

Here's an interesting attempt at making football more analysable. I wouldn't say more predictable, but you do get a better idea of why a certain team won or just seemed to be playing better, even though the classic stats like possession and passes completed say otherwise.
impect.com/en/
de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packing_(Fußball)
The basic idea is to compare how many people are behind the ball before and after a play (pass/dribblibg/tackle) and by that measure the efficiency of the play. I think it's sensible, addresses the >passes sideways meme.
A former Leverkusen player, Reinartz, developed it together with a partner and was presenting it on German TV for international games some years ago, don't know what has become of it

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Giroud didn't score a single goal in the WC (iirc) yet he was the most influential player in that France team despite statistics showing completely otherwise. He gave the players around him the freedom to play by drawing defenders and it was that link up play which led them the WC and Dechamps said so himself.
So statistics don't mean Jack shit because no statistic is going to show you that Giroud performed well that WC because he barely did anything on the ball.

Not even that, but using the most simplest statistic which is possession does not tell the whole story. Most people will believe that a team that has the majority of possession in a game has to win the game, when sometimes that isn't the case. You can look at teams like Chelsea, Inter, or Celtic beating a team like Barcelona with minimal possession and 1 or 2 shots on goal and they win the game. It's as complicated and fluid as that. The OP is just a retarded faggot who thinks football can be quantified easily.

If Ameristats have figured out football by using statistical analysis, why did they lose against Tripadvisor&Trivago?

>muricans trying to sport

m8s plz, stop. This is a sport where a midfield consisting of fucking Milner & Henderson has been manhandling teams for an entire season. There is no statistic there

i understand that the variables are more dynamic due to the flow of the game compared to something like baseball or handegg where you repeat things over and over, but the fact that these metrics don't really seem to exist is bizarre. i'm not trying to argue these statistics should be the end all be all of a manager's decision making but there could be 1000 more metrics to take for a soccer match that just don't seem to exist compared to other sports. it could be completely worthless, but it's just fucking bizarre how few statistics are out there even in /trb/. all the boreball math nerds got completely destroyed by players and coaches for a decade but then people started realizing they were beginning to work. if the stats just don't seem to fucking exist to the public, how the hell will we ever know how useless or useful they potentially are?

Henderson was one of the first moneyball purchases, along with Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing

>trying to get reliable information to then use it for your advantage is bad
no wonder most soccer fans are brainlets
>muh infinite scenarios
football, baseball and hockey also have infinite scenarios
just in baseball you have the current count, type of pitch you want to throw(fastball, curveball, slider, cutter, etc), location in the strike zone, men on base, number of outs, inning you're playing, the scoreboard at the moment, who's the batter, who's the pitcher, who's the batter BEHIND the current one, who do you have available in the bullpen and how rested each pitcher is
there is infinite possibilities since the game state doesn't reset after each score unlike soccer
and baseball at some point was as archaic as modern soccer, with managers trusting their eyes more than what you can actually quantify on a paper, hell, you can actually see if a batter is a choker or not with just a quick glance at his RISP and comparing it to his regular Average

>no statistic is going to show you that Giroud performed well that WC because he barely did anything on the ball
That's the fault of the statisticians not statistics as a whole. You sound like a brainlet.

they didn't go past Tribango&Topanga's low 'star rating' statistic figuring out the game was a piece of cake
HOWEVER

Henderson was bought when Rodgers decided to go out and buy every teams POTY

They do exist, though. Go on WhoScored or Soccer Stats. They're readily available. They just aren't discussed to consensus because outside historicity they don't indicate anything game-by-game. That's why when some people are saying that anything can happen, that's literally the case. There have been multiple teams in the modern contemporary era that have dominated statistical categories until they were utterly exposed by the very measurements that made them successful. A lot of these same measurements are vanity metrics, so discussing the "complexity" of certain values is a lost cause.

Maybe you're less focused on the stats and more focused on why people don't discuss them more often. They do, just not literally on a measurement by measurement basis. Everyone still talks about possession, shots on goal, headers, interceptions, tackles, etc. They don't have to sound complex to be complex.

>MLS shitters forced into first team to promote muh product
>non-goal counted for panama
>toboggan monkeys spend entire second half of match rolling around on pitch pretending to be hurt
>spic refs just let monkeys roll around for entire second half
>word gets around that if nothing changes that USA won't make it out of the hex
>every other fucking team just stops playing basically
it was just a complete shitshow. yes I still mad.

Nigger if they were playing a team based on statistics alone he wouldn't even have got into the team over players like lacazette who were way more clinical and had much better statistics in general like goals scored and dribbles competed. Football isn't about shitty statistics it's about tactics moreso than anything else and it doesn't matter if one player has better statistics than another, if he doesn't fit into the tactical system the manager wants he is fucking useless. It's why Alex Ferguson managed to win league titles with absolute dogshit players like Ashley Young and Cleverly.

So your point is that the nature of football prevented Ameristats from forming a coherent working gameplan solely around statistical analysis?

>other sports don't have tactics
the Pats trash other teams with mostly mediocre players because their outsmart their opponents
there is also hockey

concacrap is a complete shitshow. we have third world beaner refs for pretty much every match unless we are fortunate to get canadian ones. the quality of refs is absolute shit, and they're the furthest you can get from impartial. basically every team gets to play murderball and time waste as much as they want against USA with zero risk of getting carded unless we get the canadians.

>IT'S THE REFEREES' FAULT!!!

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You have no idea what you're talking about

>muh stats
>muh intelligent
Americans, everyone.

how many times has finland made it to the world cup again? is there any sport you're actually good at? even nordic sports you're cucked as fuck by sweden and norway

Why are you trying to change subjects from Ameristats' failures in football to the level of Finnish sporting success?

Football clubs do use it as much as possible. How can you think otherwise?

Soccer is regarded as a women's sport in America, so naturally we dominate international competition on the female side. No amount of statistical analysis can make up for the fact that all of our top male athletes are funneled into football, basketball, baseball, hockey, boxing/MMA or even military service before they consider playing soccer at a high level.

considering it isn't even close to being the 4th most popular sport here and any guy who plays it past the age of 11 is ridiculed by his peers for being a field faerie faggot, I'd actually argue we're quite successful as a national team. made it out of the group stages in 4 of the last 6 world cups as a country that doesn't even give a shit about the sport.

the guy from moneyball tried to implement a system for building a cost-effective team in football and hasn't succeeded
fuck off

the best athletes and support staff in the US don't play soccer
I guarantee if the US swapped overnight from the dozen sports it plays into a soccer nation then they would win world cups back to back for the next century unless europe united under one team

Why can't mutts use their "advanced stats" to win a World Cup if they are so useful?

You are a cuck adolf

Why can't Finland use Nokia anymore?

of course a sport exclusively played by braindead europoors and south american subhumans is brainlet. they think passing backwards to a goalkeeper is beautiful

Because we let the mutts take it over. But what does that have to do with my question or this thread?

This is true. AFL stats are ridiculous.
youtube.com/watch?v=i_mePwh_02M

Nothing I am just trying to be mean, bored, phoneposting from a clinic where I am waiting 2 hours for my medical check

Liverpool did it before and failed spectacularly. Player such as Ricky Lambert and Charlie Adam were the result.

Football statistics are not really palatable for audiences. Basketball can measure rebounds, assists, points, etc.. as a general guide to how well a player is performing. These are quite simple to tally. In football, some midfield roles ensure that a player will go whole games without entering your or your opponent's box. They might go a whole season without registering any statistic you can check on a box score. Just off the top of my head, Francis Coquelin is a player like this, a midfield destroyer. He's played professionally for 11 years, scored 3 goals, and probably registered as many assists. He's still a valuable player. You have to go into advanced statistics to find true values of players and the average fan isn't going to delve through 30+ categories that only paint half of the picture.

There is another layer of complexity in a team's style. Stats may tell you that a player is performing well at one club, but once you take him out of that team, he can fail hard. Unlike in basketball, nothing's ever won outside of a team performance. Individuals are just cogs in the machine. It's not like the plug-in-and-play nature of basketball. For example in Rudy Gay's last 3 years at Memphis he averaged 19ppg, the 2 years after in Toronto he got 19.4ppg, and the next 3 years in Sacramento he got around 19ppg. His minutes went down the next 2 years in San Antonio, but the per 36 ppg is largely the same. In short, you can put a player in 4 different systems and he's the same player, you know roughly what you're going to get from him. If I take Mesut Ozil and put him in a team where he might be uncomfortable, there's no telling what might happen to his stats.

There's also the ridiculous schedules you have in America. 82 games per season gets an enormous sample size, where things can be analysed in great detail. A football player might only get 10-15 games before he's deemed a failure and shipped off somewhere else.

I chose to focus on just basketball because I feel like American football and football statistics are quite similar anyway, just the nature of the sport is different: stop-start vs free-flow. The former just allows for more pre-planning and strict structuring.

Wasn't arsenal the team that used the most statistics to buy players?
kek

In March 2015, the Dutch football club AZ Alkmaar, under general director Robert Eenhoorn, a former Major Leaguer, hired Beane as an advisor.[47]

On December 19, 2017 Beane became part of a consortium let by Ligue 1 club Nice owner Chinese/American businessman Chien Lee to purchase Barnsley Football Club, which is based in Barnsley, South Yorkshire, England and plays football in League One, the third tier of the English football league.[48][49]

using stats isn't about "if i pass left it's 80% successful but if i pass right it's 60% successful so let's pass left" or "in a 2-1 count i should throw a curveball because it has a 74% success rate in night games on mondays" you brainlets

stats are used to challenge biases and take advantage of inefficiencies. in baseball it was assumed that bunting was good, batting average was the most important thing, and that you should steal bases. we learned that was all bullshit. just like in football we learned that running the ball a bunch is retarded because passing is more efficient, and that memechucking is more efficient than hitting da big man.

so individual stats like xg are dumb to focus on. we shouldn't work backwards from logic i.e. oh this stat makes sense let's use it. we need to reverse engineer what leads to wins and then see if it's exploitable.

also with soccer, there are a lot less scoring plays which is the reason it's harder to see what truly leads to them (and in the same way, what prevents them), and to what extent each part of the play contributed to the goal

How did it take this long for someone to say this Jesus Christ

Baseball is so American that there's a stat called WAR.

Why? Croatia came second with 4 million people. Leicester won the league for fuck sake. Moronic.

honestly you should watch some concacaf matches, especially home games for central american countries. it's like a different sport. shit housing with a side of soccer

>muh exceptions invalidate the rule
Now look at the comparative success of Germany or Brazil or any other massive country that plays soccer and think about why what you just said was retarded.

burger sports should really have their own boards

do you honestly believe mike trout, lebron james, patrick kane, and tom brady would have helped the us win a world cup?

>Now every team spends tens of millions on statistical analysts every year.
And they get beaten by the obvious stars who everybody knows are talented.
Question, if stats are so important and Americans have them figured out, how come their NT is utter crap?
If stats do such a great job at predicting the best strategies, how come nobody predicted the three point shooting modern game until the players themselves started doing it? Literal dumb apes who couldn’t even finish college came up with the strategy before the supposedly genius researchers.

I’m not saying stats are useless but they’re already being used by all soccer teams. They just aren’t the magic bullet that American pundits make them out to be.

They would have dominated the world cup. Go and google D. K. Metcalf's stats. Guy is like 120kgs and 3% bodyfat. He would BTFO literally any soccer player in existence.

not sure if you're trolling or what now

dk metcalf isnt even gonna be good in the sport he chose. the reason he (was perceived to have) dropped in the draft was because he has zero agility, which is even more important in soccer than it is for a wide receiver

jfc m8 why doesn't jamaica just dominate every fucking sport

I'm dead serious, you reddit spacing newcunt.
Jamaica dominates cricket which is the only sport they care about, though. If they gave a fuck about soccer they'd dominate it as hard as they dominate cricket.
youtube.com/watch?v=Ync2pKXveeE
Joel Garner was over 2 meters tall. He'd literally walk over any soccer player.

A lot of the people working in the world of football are unprofessional. Look at how bad they are with head hits. Or how childish managers are, how newspapers can just lie.
Stats and numbers, being something for nerds, are treated even worse. For example a lot of people think that tackles are actually a positive stat and not a warning sign that a team failed to properly defend. Pass%, one of the most pointless stat, is so relevant that it warped the entire discussion of this decade of football, which lead to people not understand what tiki taka was about.

And basically so on, fans and pundits don't want to sit down and actually think about what they saw, what they want to hear and say something safe and boring.

American sports aren’t competitive or interesting

>xG
>xGA
>xPTS
xFuckOff

aussies really are the best shit posters in the league

Also this is kinda true, we don't have yet good models to objectify how a players played, so grugs like this canadian think the whole thing is impossible.
Whoscored rating, to name one, might have done more harm than good.

Mustafi is statistically one of the best defenders in Premier League

its hard to organize your game around stats when the ball keeps rolling all the time, soccer is decided on a play to play basis, where you exploit the opponents mistakes, or with a flash of individual brilliance. For an example, a player can have great crossing skills, basically hitting every cross perfectly, That doesnt mean shit if you have a center back playing the game of his life clearing 7+ balls that game, also, his teammates might be underperforming and missing sitters. on the other side of the pitch, there is a guy with terrible crossing, shooting it in to goal kick 15 times that game, and then once hitting a bad cross that the keeper needs to box hitting another attacking player, he scores and the game finishes 1-0. The guy with the worse stats just produced a goal out of an element of play he is terrible at. How do you quantify all of this?

Non-shitpost answer is that they are just a bit behind the times to advanced analytics. Even NBA teams really didn't start to use them until about a decade ago. The analytic revolution will happen in the sport, though. Soccer is not exempt from reality and being analyzed through math, like some soccer fans believe.

I know soccer fans fear this will "sciencify" the sport and make it more mechanical and rote, but it won't. Stats just help you identify percentage plays and player value, which funny enough, usually correlates to the eye test anyway. But where the eye test is maybe 80 percent accurate, analytics might be 90-95 percent accurate.

analysis in soccer would already tell you that crossing is a shit tactic so stop doing it so often

it would also say stop looking at tiny sample sizes

>by jove he’s done it, he’s solved football!
>i say, wait till the fossils down at the association hear about this

Just saying, there is nothing that stops people from using more accurate stats.
If passing percentage is meaningless (it is) then you move on something more accurate to describe what happens.

The problem is the misuse of stats, for example thinking that pass completion percentage actually means something.

by any metric you can think of, messi is

i know you were shitposting but fivethirtyeight.com/features/messi-walks-better-than-most-players-run/

unironically though if stats gave teams a serious edge then the USMNT would definitely be good enough to win a WC

>by any metric you can think of, messi is

glitched the fuck out. meant to say that by any metric you can think of, messi is elite

stop

typing

like

this

you

dumbcunt

wasn’t Leicester’s victory just that?

lmao fucking relax man

Because the sport is art. You can't quantify art. Leave stats to cricket.

There probably is space for a moneyball-style revolution with SET PIECES ONLY.

Liverpool having a throw-in specialist is regarded as shockingly unusual. Arselel and Manure are only just now hiring a director of football and developing back-office organisations. Sport can really be pretty primitive and I can definitely imagine some manager applying stats to 1000 corner videos and finding something that's been hidden there a few years.

Will probably fuck the game up a bit and require a new law though, even >us at the recent WC relied on set pieces so much it didn't really feel like football.

>based hillary statistics man
yeah uh lemme definitely read this lmao

Leicester's victory was a freak season where all the "big clubs" had shit seasons at the same time.

>the virgin artistic soccer
>the chad scientific cricket

>not written by nate silver
>not about polling or forecasting
>having the time to post on Yea Forums but won't read something that might challenge his current understanding

I’ll advocate stats for corners only when teams stop kicking straight at the first man

538 has trump's chance higher than basically any non-propaganda predictor too. their podcast is very based i recommend it

I don't know why people get so offended by ideas like this. It doesn't take away anything from the sport at all. It's just a concept that might make the game better.

You guys have to admit, for all of the brilliance of individual players, managing tactics in soccer are typically pretty simplistic compared to other sports. There really are very few stand-out managers and even these seem to heavily rely on the individual brilliance of certain players. Ultimately, I feel like soccer could be greatly improved by a more scientific focus on the back end.

This isn't a dig on the game, at all. It's not a dig on the players that play it. Take one look at the cavalcade of mediocrity that has managed England in the past years, for example, and tell me with a straight face that a more tactical and statistical approach to managing football clubs would not be an improvement.

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Whether it's the Democrats or Republicans, whoever gets out in front of the issue of marijuana legalization and decriminalization will win the election in a landslide. I'm probably the least political person on the planet but even I would shake off my apathy to go out and vote on an issue like that just because I think it needs to be done. The tax revenue, the quality of life improvements for people with serious ailments -- it's green across the board in terms of societal benefits. I'm honestly surprised the Democrats haven't been all over this. The Republicans really have a chance to step in and steal a progressive and forward-thinking policy from them. I'm not a fan of Trump but I'd vote for him in a heartbeat if this was in the billing.

Soccer fans like to have this illusion that their game is mystical, artistic, and "natural", and that it can't be solved. Applying statistics like every other sport does takes away from the image they've created of the sport and it upsets them.

It's a actually just to scare away stat-obsessed ameriburger autists like you from the sport

>my medical check
should of asked me beforehand would've saved alot of time, but here goes:

You're a ugly slav cunt, kys.

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the game is low-scoring, live-ball periods are long, positions can be very fluid, the pitch is large. you can see in the variance of league styles the size of strategic space in football - much larger than other sports.

people get annoyed because it's clear you haven't played or watched the game much and realised these things. models are possible, of course they are, but given the basic restrictions above they are much more difficult. it will probably take 30 years, and novel methods of data science that can track players and identify important moments of decision, before tactics change much.

there simply isn't enough data for any particular situation.

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Liverpool tried that, they bought the best statistical crosser and the best header and it failed spectacularly

But there is a lot of data and statistics. Every big club have a fleet of data-analysts. There are also a lot of stat nerd fans.

This thread feels like an unironic boomer meme
Some of you euros sound like 60 year old boomers here who complain about the “nerds” ruining sports

>for all of the brilliance of individual players, managing tactics in soccer are typically pretty simplistic compared to other sports

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>here are your managers bro

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>Ameristats

Soccer is way more difficilt to measure tha baseball
The closest sport is hockey and advanced stats are rubbish for hockey

Weapons of Math Destruction by Cathy O Neill is a great book and it shows why maths and statistic can be applied to baseball but not to other sports or areas. I highly recommend to read it

It's not that soccer is brainlet, its the opposite in fact. Its so high iq that you can't use simple stats to understand what is happening on the pitch. You need to have the right methodology to understand the stats to craft a winning strategy from the stats.

The English in the 50's analysed football statistics and realised that the most goals originate from a short amount of passes (1-5). The result was Long Ball football, a direct style of football that has been obsolete in international football ever since England was outclassed by Hungary in 1953.

If the English took the same stats and interpreted them to understand that teams had to win the ball back quickly and THEN pass the ball they would have maybe developed the total football style that has been the basis of all modern football played today since the dutch invented it in the 70's

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Underrated

shut the fuck up wog.

>football doesn't use statistics
standard 50 IQ amerifat meme
Most clubs use this
wyscout.com

>Lee Tunnell had female groupies that would fuck him for free

cba to read the thread because I'm a busy man but it is pure bullshit that football clubs don't have stats analysts

Too many outliers. A GOAT team drops the spaghetti every now and then, getting all the statpadded guys won't give you the best team on the pitch and individual mistakes can tank a stellar performance.

Americans truly are as clinically retarded as their sports.

Big Sam's been using a stats-based approach for a decade.

Never got why finns are considered nordic desu

soulfull eurochads vs soulless amerimutts

Football teams have been using data and statistics for years at this point so I have no idea what you're talking about.

They all wear these GPS vests when training (black bib thing in pic related) that track all sorts of data.

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>if you had for example some sort of turnover stat or loss of possession
But statistics like that ARE collected for fuck's sake. There are companies like pic related which collect all sorts of football statistics. I remember seeing a job advertised a few years ago that I was going to apply for that would be working for one of these companies - the job literally involved watching football games and collecting statistics, like how many corners, how many losses of possession, how many passes completed, etc. How the fuck do you think they come up with successful passes % on the TV? Do you think they just make it up? How do you think they come up with the heat map? Do you think it's just a pretty picture of abstract art?

I don't know why OP thinks that football doesn't use data and statistics when it has been using them for well over a decade at this point, probably much much longer?

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Stats like that are very popular and fans will always be checking the league tables, and they might well also check statistics on players like the number of goals they're scoring per season etc.

Also in this country there is a very popular game called Football Manager (at least it was popular when I was a kid, don't know if it still is), and that entire game is basically looking at statistics and trying to hire the best players for the best prices, on the basis of those statistics, in order to win titles and become successful as fuck.

Why are you and OP alleging something which is so completely and laughably false when you clearly have no idea what you're talking about?

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>it's another murrican knows nothing about what he's talking about episode
stats have been used for years now you shitter

So this is the power of moneyball

lmao these niggas is wearin sports bras like wtf

England didn't lose because of long ball or a direct method of attack, it was more because their tactics and formation had become massively outdated. The English defence would just look at the numbers of the opposition to know who to mark, but against a fluid, flexible team and style of play they were totally unprepared. The Hungarians were also well trained and familiar with the system and their team mates, and even wore more modern lightweights boots as opposed to England's old heavy leather boots.

Long ball is horrendously outdated though and partly explains why England has been so underwhelming in international football

based xG confirms Liverpool’s season was a fluke

Yeah, go pitch this to ManU right now. They're probably dumb and desperate enough for this drivel

The point of moneyball isn't to buy the statistical best. The philosophy of Moneyball is to identify undervalued players, all them to "over perform" for you (from the non-moneyball perspective), then sell the player for a profit.

A successful club running a moneyball operation would look exactly like any other top level club except that they'd prioritize developing talent.

>2014 meme website
All top clubs have their own stats guys working on models based on feeds from prozone or the other one which I forget.
This is also from 2014
thread/

wired.co.uk/article/premier-league-stats-football-analytics-prozone-gegenpressing-tiki-taka

He is literally losing to a team that copies his strategy and just does it better

> American makes a thread
> europoors come piling seething at our superiority

This. Stats are just a way for Jews to try and insert their trickery into the game. First it was gambling and then fantasy and now muh analytics.
Show me one dynasty built off analytics. Occasionally a meme team will upset everyone and get a championship but because they wrote some numbers on an excel spreadsheet they can say it’s “analytics” instead of pure luck.

>Plays only matter for teams with shit players because good teams just have chemistry and a general strategy/tactic.
*2004 US Olympic team cough cough*

Divegrass is a brainlet sport for brainlet third world countries. Of course they don't know how to think beyond basic "me kick ball" concepts.

scouting is a pretty challenging thing to do. even in basketball where you have way more statistic teams still draft busts at number 1 or some future superstar gets picked in the second round etc.

Americans are statistically the best at keeping statistics. No American interest = no american- tier statistics and this is FACT

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>Oh no, I have to actually watch a sport to talk about it instead of just reading a sheet of numbers!

>maths and statistic can be applied to baseball but not to other sports or areas
>math and statistics can only be used in baseball
>no where else

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I think Fulham tried to apply stats and it was a total disaster.
Opta is doing this and I think Kante signing to Leicester was done bcuz of good stats and scientific measuring.

These are boomer stats. How many of the blocks were in a 2 on 1 situation? It's not about the quantity, not ranking quality of the block.

Go to a pub, read The Sun and fuck an ugly Britbong female ya fookin coont. Fuck your Queen and "royalty" too, cuck.

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Baseball has some fixed and recurring variables that make it easier to apply stats in a convincing way. If you apply the same approach to other areas they sinply dont work. In that book that you should read before talking shit, he explain how the statistical approach to, say, hiring teachers or to the jail system is a total failure. But you dumb amerilards cannot grasp those subtleties and big investors keep on wastong money on yhis so you will probably end up in jail because of some stupid algorithm lel

>Arsenal should have been 7th
>Man United should have been 4th
>Wolves should have been 6th

Then why weren't they?

>Liverpool was actually one of the first to hop on the advanced stats train thanks to their American owners.
Still 0 titles

clearly curled in the second pic lel

well away goals are worth more so it’s a curious metric

only mané is elite

can make stats say anything, considering liverpool is more powerful than arsenal the opponent is less likely to have the ball and thus virgil is less likely to intercept balls or block crosses, but it highlights even more the cases he got better stats than mustafi, despite his opponents having less chances he got more clearances and blocked shots. without the context of the team they play in those stats can't be compared.

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These threads only serve to prove the laziness of fucking americans to actually play and understand the game. Anyone that has actually played footie understands why statistics are from being developed enough for a manager to rely on them, when there are so many intangibles that cannot be measured.
For example, how do you measure vision, or positioning, when positioning is so complex, as often a player would move to x position carrying a mark so that a teammate can move to the space he left without defenders.
It's hard for unitedstatians to understand that footie is the lost conplex of all games if to be analyzed, especially because you could have the best put together team using statistics, and a team of brazilians shows you up horribly just because they have a feeling for the game.
Football is the most romantic of all sports, take your autism induced statistics love somewhere, you lazy cunt.
More playing and less reading, you fucking fatass.

nah sorry soccer is for retards made by retards.

This guy is right ape ball faggots

>let me tell you about your sport

>your

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indeed, I own football

woah

>chase a ball around
>fall and have a seizure when someone breathes on you
>rarely score
>call it a sport
im thinking no

It's the sport enjoyed most in 50 iq favelas and African hut colonies. You do the math.

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there hasn’t been a repeat World Series champion since 2001

Seething third worlders ITT

And yet americans fucking seethe at the thoughts that fucking trinis, people who don't even have iphones in their island, humilliated the national team without the use of faggy stats or whatever other autism shit you niggas care about.

The world will be better off when America is broken into 1000 pieces and ever K Street-Midtown “Wonk” is killed

>That’s what people used to think about basketball and baseball too

Have you ever heard the expression "comparing apples with bowling balls"? American "sports" are not sports per se. They're (((franchies))) that exist to launder money and take shekels from dumb goys. That's literally it.
People have worn Yankees caps for decades without knowing who the fuck the Yankees even are. But they wear them and pay money for them anyway because they're (((popular))).
Whereas football is more like the modern day Colosseum to keep goys pacified, American "sports", for what they are, are just gimmicks. A carnie sideshow that dumb goys with more money than sense will invest everything into to show they have a real connection with their local franchise and by extension their town/city, and by extension their State and by extension their country (which is now 56% white). It's this last part (the part in brackets) that shows you how well these gimmicks work. If you hadn't been hoodwinked from the start with them then that number wouldn't be 56% because you would be solving the real problem.
In conclusion: Never EVER compare a real something with a Jewish something and think the two are even remotely the same. Ever.

Well Barnsley just got promoted so maybe it does work

ICE is creeping, Paco.

Nobody cares that Tripadvisor and Trivago beat the US, unless they're outside the US. Mexicans and Yuros are rightfully making fun of US soccer, but Americans don't give a shit.

The score is much lower in football, statistics definitely help you build your gameplan but the a good offensive match would be around 2 xGs for your team, compared to, for example, 40 expected baskets in a basketball game.

The smaller the sample, the less efficient the data. Basketball with 100 possessions per game is super data-friendly, football isn't.

Created opportunities. Dribbles. Goals assists doesnt tell the whole picture, sometimes in tap ins the important pass was the one before the assist (created opportunity). Look this video (from 0:40)

youtu.be/P6rMNXnXiJE

Messi shot hits the bar, it doesnt count as goal, assist or even as a shot on target. Only a brainlet would say he didnt habe influence in this goal.

Stats suggest barcelina is gonna win 9 out of 10 times, sometimes thrashing celtic. Putting the outlier doesnt prove they dont work, they are fuckin stats. Also variance is much higher in football than other sports as baseball, basketball or handegg.

A shot hitting the post that the goalkeeper wouldnt have reach doesnt even counts as a shot on target. A whimpy shot directly to the keeper arms counts as a shot on target. They have to make better stats.

So what this shows is that
>Liverpool should be behind Chelsea
>Arsenal shouldn't be top 6
>Salah and Auba are donkeys who waste too many chances
>Fabianski and Lloris are elite keepers

Analytics work far better for a sport that is based on set pieces such as baseball. Football is too freeform for this to work effectively

They mustn't have seen your post. Hang on a sec pal

HEY

HEY, AMERICANS

HEY AMERICANS, FANCY ANSWERING THIS Q FOR US? CHEERS LADS

>Goals assists doesnt tell the whole picture
This. And this hints at how sports fans misunderstand advanced stats. They aren't an attempt at "quantifying or solving" the sport. Baseball statisticians were obviously the innovator in this regard and they weren't attempting to somehow statistically solve the sport, they were simply trying to find stats that go beyond the traditional batting average and rbis, which were for a about a century considered gospel in determining batter value. Out of this came a fresh look at on base percentage and slugging.

Soccer managers and front offices seem to intuitively know what works via the eye test, if not, they wouldn't be able to build successful teams (many of which win multiple titles over a decade). Stats simply exist as a supplement to the eye test, and usually wind up confirming what the eye test suggested anyway.

Fuck statball desu

It tends to suck the soul out of sports and leads to shit like memechucking in apehoop and pacebabby systems in divegrass that go against the spirit of the game

Stats are a guide and not a be-all end-all for each sport. Too bad NPC zoomers lack the critical thinking skills to appreciate technique and other nuanced aspects of the game

t. Amerifat

>Drugs

Lmao

Based

Moneyball signing via Billy Bean.

English football was ruined by early misinterpretations of statistics which ended up in the FA coaching manual. Charles Hughes, "position of maximum opportunity".

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More like Eurotards vs Chad American Mathematicians

Everyone forgets the third member of the team.

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Stats can't go against the spirit of the game, that's a rules problem. Stats are just trying to maximize efficiency within the the framework of the rules.

This, all recent Liverpool transfers are based on memeyball

>Keita
packing
>Alisson
xGA
>Salah
xGchain

etc

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I'll give one statistic: I give 0 fucks about statistics.

Third highest point total in the history of the English top flight and CL final for the second year in a row. Solid improvement for a team that has been Europa League tier for the last 10 year.

Get out

Literally what xG is for, especially the newer modern models.

Given that it says the expected points for Liverpool is 83 and for Chelsea is 71, no I don't think it does say that Liverpool should be below them you moron.

Just look at the other replies to the post you replied to.

In high school my team literally sat back for a minute to run out the clock and get 1 last opportunity or get fouled. It's either that or you foul.

The funny thing is they do that more because of stats. Stats have shown that driven crosses then attacking the near post with headers on goal or flick ons produce the most goals from corners so they aim to do that, which means more hitting the first man than if they lofted a cross to the far post.

Because variance exists

Bump >:)

I thought Leicester built their PL winning team with stats, on a "tight" budget ?

>pandering to amerisharts

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I'm going to use this to bet and make infinite amounts of money.

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so for example in Man Utd's case, they scored fewer than their xG, effectively meaning their players were not finishing as many chances as they should do, and they conceded more than their xGA, meaning either teams just happened to score good goals against them, or that >de gay was letting in shots he should have saved

This a way of turning over possession quickly to the more dominant side, it’s embarrassing you don’t understand this. Americans just love a winner. You’ll never understand the passion of the game. Fickle shit heads that follow players and franchises, many supporters will support more than one franchise in their life spread across several different sports. If your a proper football supporter this would never happen if my team didn’t actually exist under its current name at its current stadium they wouldn’t be my team.

>mfw a Euro statlet sat down to pee near me

No. Moneryball's philosophy is to maximize the available talent to the team per any given budget size, in order to make the team as successful as possible.

The reason they keep selling the "finds" is because they can't afford to keep them. And the reason they find these players is because of rigorous analysis, but as soon as they start performing well, they are discovered.

Now, the *true* moneyball would be to find players that *only* work in combination with eachother, making them worthless outside the team. This would allow the team to pay them low wages and be ridiculously successful for the size of its budget.

>they conceded more than their xGA, meaning either teams just happened to score good goals against them, or that >de gay was letting in shots he should have saved
It's not all about the keeper, xG just doesn't account for most defender mistakes

Because most of this data is useless. Just because you can quantity something doesn't mean it serves a purpose