A common misconception is that if something has a 1 in N chance of happening...

Dubs confirm

my mrw when

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CUTE!

very true! there are *usually countless variablels in a non closed system!

thanks for the reminder fren : )

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this is fake lole u start with vrey generic assumpion and then procede with very specific binomlial exemple

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eat my ass fardface

checked three same threes + gdoly lcuk

it works for other numberes too tho

say u have 6 sided die
the probability of rolling a 6 within 6 tries is:
1 - ((6 - 1)/6)^6 = 1 - (5/6)^6 ~= 67%

that would be cool if it was a constant
since it's not it tells me nothing about the historical world both past and future

still anothe binolial exemlpe u have two events win and lose and no else and thats why it works equiprobability postulated too bc if elemental events wouldnt be equiprobable woldnt work too reflect

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It's only intended to work for two events. Doesn't matter, though, since any event space of N events can be expanded into N individual pairs of two events each: the Mth event out of N, and the inverse of that event.

So, for example, the probability of rolling a 5 within 6 tries is the same, roughly 67%, as is the probability of rolling a 4 within 6 tries. With only this binomial example, we have, in one fell swoop, calculated the probability of rolling any specific number on a die within 6 tries, no matter what the number may be.

yes u can calculate probability of perfect dice rolling but thats it
>A common misconception is that if something has a 1 in N chance of happening, that means it'll take you N tries to get it to happen. In actuality, the chances of something with a 1 in N chance of happening happening after N tries is 1 - ((N - 1)/N)^N
quoting u this isnt generaly true only with rolling dice thats it

No, it's also true of any other scenario in which an event has a 1 in N chance of occurring for any integer N.

lole no think if you have soccer and you have to bet or if u cant do the 1-p thing its stil a 1/N but no way u can give that formula

vSauce2 has already explained how this works in the real world

But it dont exist in the real world:

This entire statement concludes with a calculation of "chance".
Chance is not an actual occurrence, merely an idea of probability.
Ideas are not events.
Hence this statement indicates nothing about our actual world past and future

>if you have soccer and you have to bet or if u cant do the 1-p thing its stil a 1/N
No it's not. If we're talking about soccer it depends heavily on the skill level of the player.
Philosophies like this are why the concept of reasonable doubt exists. Prosecutors are not required to prove their case beyond all possible doubt, merely beyond *reasonable* doubt. Because of the fundamental philosophical disconnect between observable reality and realms of pure intellectual reasoning, the same principle must by necessity apply to science and statistics: there are always fringe possibilities contrary to the most self-evident explanation for all we've observed, and so, in the interest of being right most of the time, we must abandon the ideal of being right *all* the time without exception, and accept principles which evidence has demonstrated beyond *reasonable* doubt, completely ignoring any doubt which happens to be conceivable but *not* reasonable.

I am undone.
I concede to your higher practical wisdom as I cannot argue against those points.

ur original post is in general not valid since this soccer case isnt in as u notice

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