It's 2/3

Possibility and 1 and 2 aren't separate possibilities, ya jackass

its funny that you wasted this much time drawing pictures of balls to troll people

good on you

You're calculating the probability of the second random event, not the overall event, you've already reduced the pool of probable outcomes to one of two things, a box with 2 gold balls or a box with 1 gold ball

i'm not sure how you can possibly convince anyone with an IQ over 100 that selecting 1 of 2 equally probably outcomes is anything other than 50%, but if you think that's a worth use of your time, who am i to judge?

But there is 3 gold balls, and you're twice as likely to get the box with 2 gold balls in it.

2/3 the next ball is gold,

1/2 the box has has 2 gold balls,

1/3 you got the box that we're not including in the probability of 2 silver balls because the conditional probability is that you have to draw a gold ball first to calculate the probability in the first place.

Idc

>Possibility and 1 and 2 aren't separate possibilities, ya jackass
Ya it is. This is why the silver ball doesn't count.
The probability is the NEXT gold ball, not the box. You need to learn to read.

You cared enough to make a post?

No. Youre treating the balls like options, as if you have the choice of picking your colour. The only thing you can be sure of after drawing one gold ball is that you have a 50/50 chance of having a box that has a second silver ball. You cant draw a gold ball from box one then draw a ball from box 2. The only way you have a 2/3 chance of drawing a second gold ball is if you're a moron that cant follow instructions

You must draw from the same box. You have confirmed your box contains at least one gold ball, ergo the box of silvers is no longer a factor and you have now 50/50 of having G/G or G/S.

You're confusing outcome with probability. There's 2 outcomes, either get a gold or a silver ball in the boxes. 1 out of 2 outcomes. 1/2.

But there's 3 golden balls you can draw. 3 chances at 2 outcomes. 3/2.

You don't know which golden ball you have, and just because one of the box has two, doesn't mean they're the same golden ball. They're 2 different balls, with 2 different probabilities.

50/50. By pulling out a gold ball first, you guarantee that you've drawn from either Box 1 or Box 2, because Box 3 contains only silver balls. Either the next ball is gold, or the next ball is silver.

They're random, there's no choice.

You're twice a likely to get a box with 2 gold balls in it since you're not sure which box you have until you draw a gold ball.

You're not calculating which box you have, but what the chance the NEXT ball will be.

Its 2/3 you will pick the gold ball at random.
After you pick a gold ball its 1/2 you will pick another gold ball

Just think of it as this then, the chance the box you have is all silver balls is the same, but the chance you'll draw a golden ball would be much high if the box had 20 golden balls in it instead of 1, all things being EQUALLY RANDOM, since in reality you'd have a 50/50 chance of it being a silver ball, but the first time you grabbed a golden ball if it were 20 balls in each box like this you wouldn't think you have a 50/50 chance of drawing a golden ball next. You would be almost certain you got the box with 20 golden balls in it because you were given the box randomly.

I didn't draw this tho. My favorite trolling is not with lies. That is a waste of both of our time. I like trolling with teaching.

Welcome to the Bertrand's box paradox,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

Attached: 1523462421068.jpg (701x576, 146K)

You already know that you're dealing with a 2 box subset

You either selected the box with 2 gold balls, or you didn't

1 out of 2 is 1/2 not 2/3

Good day to you sir

It's actually 3/6 reduced down to 1/2 that you'll get a golden ball at random. There's 3 golden balls and 3 silver balls. Same odds.

It's 2/3 the next ball will be gold because you're twice as likely to get the box with 2 gold balls.

If there was 100 gold balls in the first box instead of 2, you would almost certainly get 2 gold balls. It wouldn't be 1/2.

wrong. the box with 2 gold balls is counted once not twice. you dont have a different scenario if you pick gold ball A or gold ball B from the same box.
its only counted once.

That's outcome, not probability.

What? Why is counted once? Where does it say that? It is a different scenario if you pick gold ball a or gold ball b. The probability is based on the NEXT ball you pick, not the first box you picked.

I have a 1/3 chance to choose the box with two gold balls.

Once I choose a box and pull the first gold ball from it, I have proven that I don't have the box with two silver balls.

At this point, I still don't know which box I've chosen, but I do know that since I've eliminated box 3, I have a 1/2 chance of having chosen the box with two gold balls.

2/3 only makes sense if the three remaining balls are in the same box and I'm randomly picking, hoping for a second gold ball.

Its a well known problem and has been proven to be 2/3. Theyve even programmed it into computers and the result is still 2/3.

This is only because if you have a gold ball you have a 1/2 chance it's either box, you're correct.

but are you not more likely to pick the box with more gold balls in it??? That would skew the 1/2 odds that the next ball would be same as the first.

Also id like to add that the original problem elaborates and says each coin (or ball in this case) is housed in seperate compartments of the boxes.

It’s a poorly written question.

It's 2/3

Look at if from the start.

Maybe if we label the balls 1 - 3

The first gold ball is 1, the second gold ball is 2, the third goal ball is 3.

The is a 1 / 6 chance you will pick out any named gold ball.

However, because we are disgarding the silver balls, for the purposes of this probablitity there is a 1/3 chance you will pick out any name gold ball.

With ball 1 there is a 100% chance you will get a gold ball next, with ball 2 there is a 100% chance you will get a gold ball next and with ball 3 there is a 0% chance you will get a gold ball next.

So it is 66.666666% or 2/3

This. The fact that the balls are "in boxes" is a red herring.

It's like this.
I have 6 friends, 3 guys and 3 girls.

2 of the guys are gay and dating, two of the girls are lesbians and dating, and the other man and woman are a couple.

Pick a guy at random out the three, what is the chance he is gay? 2/3

Just replace the colour of balls with that, and the "boxes" are the fact that they are dating - it works just the same.

Is it? What part would you say in particular is written poorly, and should be improved to increase the quality of the question?

yeah, so picking a guy at random, because there are two guys who are gay (in the same box / dating) then there is a 2/3 chance.

Like what this is really asking, pick a gold ball at random, what is the odds it's in a box woith another gold ball?

Well 2/3 same principle.

I mean the double silver ball box is the red herring. If you just had 2 boxes with 3 gold balls and 1 silver ball the answer would be a lot more apparent.

rn i haven't got a single gold or silver ball, so i win.

Exactly.

I have three male friends and a female friend.

Two of the guys are dating , the other guy is straigh and dating the woman.

pick a guy at random, what is the odds he is gay? (or what are the odds he has a gay partner, same thing)

2/3 simple when said like that.

>what is the odds it's in a box woith another gold ball?

Ya. What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

That's a damn good example.

We can ignore the box with 2 silver balls. And the other silver ball

So what this is saying is pick a gold ball at random. What is the odds of it being in a box with the other gold ball?

Well, 2/3 because oput the thre three balls, 2 of them are in a box with another gold ball.

The key here is understanding that all you are doing is picking a goal ball at random.

What is the odds that ball is in a box with another gold ball?

There are 3 gold balls, 2 are in boxes with other gold ball, soooo it's 2/3

are you even trying? your scenario is 1/2 and still has nothing to do with the original question in op

So the people telling me it's 2/3 actually believe that I'd get somewhere around 666 golden balls rather than 500 if I did this experiment 1000 times?

I have three male friends, two are gay. Pick one at random what is the odds he is gay. 2/3.

This isn't complex.

youre wrong because probability doesnt exist
there is no "chance" and chaos

Yes, because the key to understanding this is that you are not "picking a box" at random, you are slecting golden balls at random. 2/3 of those are in a box with another golden ball.

Look at it like this - you do this game 1000 times. you would pick each ball about 166 times. So about 500 of those are silver.

Of the 500 left , the gold ones, 2/3s are in a box with another gold ball.

plot twist, the "chick" has a dick, now what is the probability

I have three friends who are male, were born as males, are not transgender and currently identify as male. Alongside this I have a female friend, who is currently a post op trans female, a 100% woman how dare you suggest otherwise.

What is the odds that if I pick a person at random the tranny will; take offence at my obvious prejudice that I don't pick it- typo I mean her.

There is 1 ball in the box, how are both gold balls a fucking option when you had to take out a gold ball in the first place to get to this point. There is no fucking possibility to take out a 2nd gold ball as you already have it.

It’s already shown how much attention it desires by mutilating itself. It’s pretty safe to say that if you order a number two on any restaurant on this planet, it will still take offense that you didn’t choose it.

If you did this experiement 1000 times- lets say 1500 times.

500 times you would pick box A, 100% chance of a golden ball being the second pick.

500 times you pick box B 50% chance a golden ball being the second pick.

500 times you pick box C 0% chance of a golden ball being the second pick.

So, with that in mind you would get a golden ball second pick 50% of the time (750 times.)

HOWEVER for our probability, we eliminate box C AND half the times you pick box B because it was a silver ball first

So this leaves you with this: We are only counting the 500 times you picked box A, and half the times you picked box B (250 times)

The times you picked box A there is a 100% chance of the next ball being gold.

The 50% of times you picked box B that we are counting there is a 0% chance the next ball is old.

So, 500 is a YES and 250 is a NO.

That's 2/3

That's still 50/50. Either it's box 1 or box 2.

People who are still saying 1/2, try this.

There are 4 balls , 3 gold 1 silver.

You take a gold ball away, so there is 2 gold and 1 silver left.

2/3 of the balls are gold.

That really is all there is to it.

If you are still stuck, do it with a random number generator.

1 , 2 and 3 are your gold balls.

4 5 and 6 are your silver balls.

disregarding the random 4, 5 and 6 results (because they are the silver balls) :

when a number 1, 2 or 3 is picked at random (the gold balls), what is the odds the next number is a 1 or a 2 (ie a gold ball from box A.)

if you get 3, its 100% if you get a 1 it is 50% if you get a 2 it is 50%

So that is 200% out of 300% of 2/3

You have a 100% chance at getting another gold with 1 box, and a 0% chance to get gold in the other box, so it's 50%.

You are picking gold balls at random.

Of the three gold balls, two are in a box with the other gold ball (100% chance the next ball is gold.) One is in a box with a silver ball (0% chance the next ball is gold.)

So what is the odds of the next ball being gold

100% + 100% + 0 % divided by 3

You're not picking 1 out of 3, you already picked one and you know he is gay.
Now you have to pick another one where 1 is gay and 1 is not.

Yes, but because there are 2 gold balls in one box and just one gold ball in the other box, it is twice as likely you picked the first box.

THIS is the key. If this is done "real world" the half the times you pick box B don't count. And all the times you pick box C don't count.

But the boxes are relevant. When you choose a gold ball, you have also chosen a box. You can't take the probability of the balls outside the boxes because they are tied to the boxes. It's asserted in the set up of the problem. When you pull a gold ball, you have chosen either box 1 or box 2. At that point, it's a coin toss.

No, the second one is not a "pick" the chance is entirely based on your first pick. You don'r pick again, you just have the other ball that is in the box.

Thats why I choose that example.

If you think of the balls in terms of three gold balls, 2 of which are in a box with another gold ball (like 2 guys out of three being gay) then it's easier.

I have to pick a ball from the same box, if I picked from box 1 there is a gold ball left, if I picked from box 2 there is a silver ball left.

Those are the only outcomes, either I pull out a gold ball, or a silver ball, I don't have increased odds of getting more gold balls as there only is 1 gold or 1 silver.

You aren't picking balls, you are picking boxes.
And conditional probabilities do not count after the fact.

What is the probability of us picking a box with a gold ball? 2/3. Pick up a gold ball. What is the probability that the gold ball we picked is gold? 100%. It's really simple.

No, it's been said above. When you choose box A, there is a 100% chance you picking a gold ball, but with Box b, only a 50% chance you have picked a gold ball.

So whilst if done "real world" then you would pick each box 33.3% of the time, half the times you pick box b and 100% of the times you picked box C don't count.

YES but there is a 2/3 chance you have picked box A! it's not that complex really.

>You aren't picking balls, you are picking boxes.

But 100% of the time you pick box C and 50% of the time you pick Box B isn't counting towards the probability of the answer.

For the situation to be " You have picked a gold ball" there is a 2/6 chance you have picked box A and a 1/6 chance you have picked box B.

It comes down to the 2nd step, it's not a single step where you pick 1 out of 3 where 2 out of 3 are something,but they are put together in a box.

And according to the initial post there are 3 gold and 1 silver, so you would have 3 gay friends and 1 straight friend.

If I open up a door, it's more likely that it's a gay friend, but the second person is either gay or straight.

It's not about the odds of picking a box, it's about the other object in the already chosen box, which is one out of 2 different things.

Possibility 1 and 2 aren't separate possibilities in reality because anyone who's picking will have to be using the boxes as their basis of selection. If you can't even see the balls at first, your method of selecting will not be based upon individual balls but by boxes. So if your basis of choosing is boxes, then you would blindly reach your hand into the chosen box to pick one of two balls. If you choose a silver ball then you completely disregard that outcome. Note that this can also happen even if you reached into the gold + silver box. So 50% of the time reaching into the gold + silver box you must disregard that outcome of choosing the silver ball similar to how you disregard of that coin HH, HT, TH, TT outcome. This means that once you have a gold ball in hand (which must be guaranteed given the conditional probability of the question), the next ball you draw is 50% chance of gold 50% chance of silver.

I could see your answer if your basis of selecting was via individual balls and not by boxes.

No, you are moving into Monte Hall terriorty here. Also confusing.

Forget the woman.

Of the three male friends, 2 are gay. The only pick you do, is when you pick one. It really is that simple.

2/3

The comment you responded to addressed that in the first 4 fucking words retard.

See If you're still to dense to understand it.

Almost, it's 2 out of three different things. And 2 of those are gold balls.

You need to understand that the odds of you picking any specific box are not the same.

>This means that once you have a gold ball in hand (which must be guaranteed given the conditional probability of the question), the next ball you draw is 50% chance of gold 50% chance of silver.

Almost, but no - if you have a gold ball in your hand, there is a 2/3 chance that ball is from a box containing anohte rgold ball.

So a 2/3 chance the other ball is gold.

2/5th chance or about 35% chance

100%, since I put the balls in the boxes.

read that wrong try again.

50% chance

Youre all either dumb or reading it wrong. It says what are the chances of picking 2 CONSECUTIVE gold balls, so if I remember anything from statistics itd be 3/6 × 2/6, which is 6/36 or 1/6 simplified

the probability actually only starts after a gold ball has been picked.

You have already picked a gold ball. You have to pull the next ball from the same box.

I agree that box 1 would be 100%. But there is no way that box 2 would be 50%. If the first ball you take from box 2 is gold, then there is a 0% chance that you'll get a gold ball on your second pull from box 2.

The boxes cannot be a red herring because you must pull the second ball from the same box as the first ball.

Pulling a gold ball first means box 3 is eliminated.

Pulling a gold ball first means you have either chosen box 1 or box 2.

The real red herring is the second ball. That doesn't matter.

If we all agree that box 3 is eliminated, then there are only two possibilities. You have either pulled a gold ball from box 1, or box 2.

There is equal probability for those boxes.

50% chance that you've chosen box 1, which is the only box that would result in a second gold ball pull.

Actually at first I thought it was 1/2 but now I see that it's 2/3. Think of it like this. Each time you find a silver ball first you must start completely over and retry the experiment again. Finding a silver ball first will happen 100% of the time from the SS box and 50% of the time from the GS box. This means 50% of the time from the GS box you must throw the outcome away, meaning if you actually did manage to pick a gold ball without having to throw away the outcome, it's twice as likely that the next ball you pick up is gold as well. Now that we know GG is twice as likely as GS, we know the reasons why we have 2/3 is because either you picked up the one gold ball in the GG box, the other ball in the GG box, or the one gold ball in the GS box.

Why wouldn't it be counted once? You only drew one ball

>There is equal probability for those boxes.
>50% chance that you've chosen box 1, which is the only box that would result in a second gold ball pull.
This is where your logic breaks. There's actually a 2/3 chance you picked box 1, specifically because you know THAT you have a gold ball, but you don't know WHICH ball from box 1 it could be. Because there's 2:1 gold balls in box 1 vs. 2, you could have pulled either ball from box 1, but only the one ball from box 2. So the KNOWN gold ball is 2x as likely to have been from box 1 as from box 2.

Pick one out of 3 boxes, 1 where there is no gold ball so 2/3 I pick a box with a gold ball.

Once I open a box and get a gold ball, it means I either opened box 1 or box 2.. there are 2 gold balls left and 1 silver ball, so 2 out of 3.

But those balls are not in the same box, either I picked box 1, and there is a gold ball left, or I picked box 2 and there is a silver ball left.

It doesn't matter which ball you pulled. It matters which box you chose.

Pulling gold ball A from box 1 is no different than pulling gold ball B from box 1.

The balls are red herrings. The boxes are the only things that matter.

We can forget that the S/S box exists, since we KNOW we picked from either G/S or G/G. The fact that S/S exists is a red herring, since we know we haven't picked from that box from as soon as the problem starts.

So now since we are taking from the SAME box, we either will be getting a gold ball (G/G) or a silver ball (G/S).

Considering that we have ALREADY removed a GOLD ball from the box we are picking, and that we are picking from the SAME box then, since we know that it isn't S/S, that there is either a Gold ball or a Silver ball.

The question solely focuses on the second part, in which we know that we didn't pick S/S, the question boils down to "Did you pick G/S or S/S?". Since the question is "Did you pick 1 or 2 out of the 2 possible choices", there is a 50% chance that you have picked G/G, and a 50% Chance that you have picked G/S, hence the answer being 1/2.

I think the important part to consider is that we split the equation. We know that we got either G/G or G/S, and thus it's basically predicting which one of 2 you got.

>Either it's box 1 or box 2.

That’s not the question. The question is about the color of the next ball you pick, not about which box you’ve picked.

imagine labeling the three gold balls A,B,C. Where A and B are the two gold balls in the same box and C is grouped with a silver ball.

You know you picked a gold ball so you can eliminate the box with the two silver balls.

And now just work through what happens depending on which gold ball A, B or C you picked:

If you picked ball A then you will pick ball B next, i.e. gold

If you picked ball B then you will pick ball A next, i.e. gold

If you picked ball C then you will pick the silver ball next

In 2 of the 3 cases you will get a gold ball, therefore the answer is 2/3

Nope.

Which is either silver or gold, as you already have one that is gold, it doesnt matter how many gold or silver there are.

Oh it’s this thread again...
Make sure you guys are actually doing math! Soft logical reasoning / misinterpreting the question is for niggers!

Nope, you are forgetting that half the time you pick g/s is a red herring too.

There is NOT an equal chance of picking g/g or g/s. We could all the times you pick g/g (as you would always pick a gold ball) but on;y hald the times you pick g/s, as there is only a 50% chance you pick the gold ball from g/s
it helps if we call the gold balls 1 , 2 and 3. With 1 and 2 being in the first box.

So, given that we are holding a gold ball, there is a 1/3 chance it is any of ball 1, 2, or 3.

Therefore a 2/3 chance it is from the first box.

This is correct.

Fucking potato thread

Just read the wiki article

yes

If we are holding a gold ball already, how can there still be 3 gold balls.

We are holding one, which means there are 2 more gold balls and 1 silver, but a box only holds 1 other ball, in box 1 its gold, in box 2 thats silver.

Literally 0 IQ, Opinion disregarded

We don't know what is in the boxes, so there is a 1/3 chance per box. If we remove the probability added by S/S, since we know we didn't pick it, there is a 1/2 chance you picked either given box.

Remember that if you are holding a gold ball, you are twice as likely (2 times out of three) to have picked box a rather than box b.

That is all there is to it.

If you are holding a gold ball then the other ball in box A will be gold and the other ball in box A will be silver.

If you are twice as likely to have picked box A then it's 2/3

There isn't a 1/3 chance per box. READ WIKI .

It's not complicated.

Because we have picked a gold ball there is a 2/3 chance we picked box 1, a 1/3 chance we picked box 2 and a 0 chance we picked box 3.

The probability only starts after a gold ball has already been picked. With means that you have either picked box One or Box two. And you are twice as likely to have picked box One due to it having twice as many gold balls.

Its not about the box, its about what ball you will get next.
If your first one is gold, the second is gold or silver.

It runs like this when faced with the boxes and balls:

pick box a, gold ball, second pick is gold 16.6%
pick box a, gold ball, second pick is gold 16.6%
pick box b, gold ball, second pick is silver16.6%
pick box b, silver ball. Stop 16.6%
pick box c, silver ball, Stop 16.6%
pick box c, silver ball Stop. 16.6%

So, there is a 50% chance we pick a gold ball first, or a 50% chance we "Stop"

But we are not counting the stops, so what we have is:

pick box a, gold ball, second pick is gold 33.3%
pick box a, gold ball, second pick is gold 33.3%
pick box b, gold ball, second pick is silver33.3%

Still confused?

Yep, and if your first one is gold, there is a 2/3 chance of the second pick being gold.

No, because there are 2 boxes, 2 types of balls, 1 pick, 3 doesnt come in here.

If its the double gold box its gold, if its the 1 gold box its silver, those are your only outcomes.

If you repeatedly open boxes its different, but if you always get gold then you're not choosing anyways, how can you repeatedly open boxes when its guaranteed the first ball is gold.

>Prove me wrong.
I can only prove you correct. But other's have done that already and the rest of the retards are unlikely to change their minds, so /thread

Thanks, you convinced me

Actually, the "hack" here is this- look at this- what are the odds that you will pick a box with balls of different colours?

Well, 1/3 .

That's easier.

The fact that you know the colour of the first ball does not change that in any way.

The odds of the second pick being the same colour as the first are 2/3. That is it!

>doesn't understand probability
Go take a high school level course in basic probability, they specifically cover topics like this because they are simple and many people get it wrong.

It is 2/3 since it tells you pulled out a gold ball. That means in this situation there is no way you could reach into the box with the silver balls. That means there are only 2 boxes you could have gotten the gold ball from. There are now 3 balls left and 2 of them are gold, therefore your chance is 2/3.
OP may be correct but you know what they say about stopped clocks and faggots.

>f its the double gold box its gold, if its the 1 gold box its silver, those are your only outcomes.

Yes, and you are twice as likely to have picked the double gold box, due to it having twice as many gold balls in.

You are just insisting on being a retard, aren't you?

Phrased as a probability question, it is simply "what is the odds of you picking a box with two balls the same colour."

There is intentional trickery in the way it is asked.

James Bond! it sort of fools people by specifying the ball is gold. people then assume, wrongly, the there is an even chance they have picked box a or box b.

Heyy...he was behind of this...

Attached: 5sbjxyxrmwh71yxet227963792400.jpg (1638x1116, 122K)

I used to know this one, it is not the "obvious" 50% since you had like 33% to pick the 2 silver ones.

Yeah, and am equal 16.6% chance that you picked a silver / gold from the middle box - meaning that if you are holding a gold ball, there is a 2/3 chance it is from the first box , and therefore a 2/3 chance the next ball will be a gold ball too.

The world is already stupid enough. Why are you trying to make it dumber?

Chances are always 50% simply because there are only 2 types of balls and there is a box with both of them.
Taking gold or silver ball out first changes nothing, as it does not eliminate the "silver and gold balls box", thus chances stay the same.

So only 2 boxes have gold, you have a gold ball, therfore all other boxes should be ignored, out of your two boxes one box has 2 gold pieces and one does not, you have a 1/2 chance. The double silver box is a red herring.

Cool, can you link that you shitbag troll?

Monty hall problem. You're retarded, stay mad.

Bad troll

Google "mont hall problem" dip shit.

You went way too high with 100 IQ... borderline retarded people can figure this out. Anyone suggesting otherwise is either trolling or a legit retard.

>out of your two boxes one box has 2 gold pieces and one does not, you have a 1/2 chance

No, because if you have a gold ball, there is a 2/3 chance it is from the first box.

>if I ignore the forced grouping of the original problem into unique combinations, the answer changes!

Not the same.

Yes, and therefore the chance of the second pick (from the same box) being the same colour as the first is 2/3.

Your logic is sound.

Are you retarded, a troll, or do you not understand that you are answering a question that wasnt asked?

>selecting 1 of 2 equally probably outcomes

That the second ball is gold is not an equally probably outcome, due to a 2/3 chance that the first golden ball is from the first box.

It's the same problem, just with people (not balls) and sexual orientation not colours.

Suppose the condition wasn't there about one must be silver. If I reach into a box at random and pick up a ball, any given ball is a 1/6 chance. Now if you add the condition that the ball I picked up must be gold, that leaves 1/3 balls. Of those 3 balls, only 1 of them is in a box with any risk of me getting silver, so the odds of me getting a silver next is 1/3. Thus the odds of me getting gold next is 2/3.

100% you obviously measure the weight before you draw the next ball

..........nigger live troll now youtube.com/watch?v=rrYyKioQtMA

Smart. :)

Okay, three couples, straight, gay, lesbian.

Each couple is in a room devised by a curtain. Yoh go into one room and find a woman, you dont know who is behind the curtain, what are the chances the person beyond the curtain is male?

Well, there are three males across the three couples, but one of the couples is two of the men together, we found a woman first so we know we havent found the gay couple, it must be the straight or lesbian couple right? So if it has to be the straight couple or the lesbian couple and you've seen one woman its 50% you've found the lesbians.

Pretty simple logic really.

If you're guaranteed to draw a gold ball on the first try, then you already know that it has to be either the 1st or 2nd box since you'll be forced to take another ball from the same box and only two boxes have gold balls, therefore the 3rd box is eliminated.

Now.. the last part is where some people are retarded. They think that since there are 3 balls left, with 2 of them being gold, that the probability would be 2/3rds,,, but that's wrong.

The individual balls don't matter.. what matters is that the box had a gold ball to begin with.

TLDR: Anyone who says anything other than 50% or 1/2 is retarded.

Win

>Like what this is really asking, pick a gold ball at random, what is the odds it's in a box woith another gold ball?
>Well 2/3 same principle.
Well, we know that only two boxes have any gold balls at all, so 50%

2 boxes contain gold balls, you have a box with gold balls, what is the likelihood that your gold ball os with one other gold ball? Well seeing as one box has one gold ball and the other has 2, we know only 2 boxes have gold balls, you have one of those 2 boxes, therfore 50%

Yeah you do idiot

Calculusfag reporting in. This guy and his logic is absolutely correct.

Probability/chance does not even begin until after you have determined you already have box 1 or box 2. It renders box 3 (silver/silver) irrelevant and has no influence on the outcome.

If you begin with 2 boxes, which you do in this case because you are guaranteed box 1 or 2, you have already pulled one gold ball out. The key factor is that you are pulling a second ball from “the same box” which means you have either a single silver ball remaining (if you happened to pull the gold from box 2 already), or a single gold remaining (if you happened to pull the gold from box 1 already). The chance is 50/50 or 1/2

Yes, it is, see here
That os direct analogous to the OP you're options are not becuase there is a 0% possibility that you've picked the lesbian couple if your first pick was a man.

The guy you're responding to is correct, retard.

But one of the balls has been removed meaning that theres only two left.

Two out of five is 2/5, or 4/10, a
So theres a 40% that the next ball is gold

stop arguing with retards.

Either you picked the middle vox, and the probability is 0, or you picked the left box, and the probability is 100.
It's 50%, then.
Also,
>fake and gay

>Like what this is really asking, pick a gold ball at random, what is the odds it's in a box woith another gold ball?
Only tow boxes have gold balls, so we eliminate the silver balls only box, 50/50

Why bother including a box with 2 silver balls?

2/3 is correct. Each box can be drawn two different ways leaving six possibilities for the first ball. The first box has gold1 and gold2 while the second box has gold3 and silver 1. When you draw the gold ball you have no way of knowing which gold (1,2,or 3) you drew. Ergo, there are three different outcomes you could have drawn. If it's gold1 or gold2 then you "win", if it's gold3 you "lose". Two of those outcomes win and one loses, qed 2/3.

You fucking retards, its either one or the other box. 50-50.

It's exactly like winning the lottery jackpot: 50percent chance - you either win or you don't.

To fuck with you

Sheesh

>But one of the balls has been removed meaning that theres only two left.
One ball has been removed from one box.

That ball was gold, so we now have one box with an u known other colored ball, but it had at least one gold ball, so we know that the box we choose from had to co train at least 1 gold ball and therfore cannot be the box with two silver balls, the box with 1 ball left could only possibly be either the box that originally had two gold balls, or the one that had one gold and one silver, it couldnt possibly have been the one with two silvers, so its 50/50

1/3

if you already picked 1 gold there can only be 1 box remaining with another gold ball. hence: 1/3

dont argue with me i did the statistics, biostatistics and statistical modelling units at an ivy league university. I'm right.

To troll people more effectively

You are picking the 2nd ball from the same box. That means There is only 1 box,. The is only 1 ball. That ball is either gold or is not gold.

The question isn't the probability of choosing any specific box. It only asks what are the odds that 1 ball is gold.

The bulk of the story is useless information. All you need to know is 1 box, 1 ball, 50/50.

>drawn two different ways
Flase.

Google, "Monty hall problem" and thank me if you ever get kn a game show you bumbling retard.

>50%

Attached: 1505589106865.jpg (731x609, 117K)

>dont argue with me i did the statistics, biostatistics and statistical modelling units at an ivy league university. I'm right.
You're a liar, if you choose one gold ball, then there is a 0% chance you've picked from the double silver box, 1/2.

2

2

Someone's really eager to prove they have more than half a brain.

Box one has a gold ball and silver, 2 has two gold, 3 has two silver

First pick, you pick gold out of a box

Box cant be double silver, we rule it out, our box has to be either one gold and one silver like box 1 and we just havent seen the silver yet, or it could be box 2 and we could have pulled out the first of it's two golden balls. These are the only two possible results left, if you're trying to determine the likelihood that one of two equally likely events will happen, its 50/50

Did you make it out of 3rd grade?

>Probability/chance does not even begin until after you have determined you already have box 1 or box 2

YOU ARE TWICE AS LIKELY TO HAVE PICKED BOX 1 THAN BOX 2!!!!!! DUE TO IT NOT HAVING A SILVER BALL IN.

this has been explained above, and on wiki.

How are you twice as likely to have picked box two, seeing as weve picked one of three boxes with equal of
Odds, that's like saying I cuaght twice as mmay fish as you becuase my fish weighs twice as much, it's a total non-sequiter

>Box cant be double silver, we rule it out, our box has to be either one gold and one silver like box 1 and we just havent seen the silver yet, or it could be box 2 and we could have pulled out the first of it's two golden balls.

You say it but don't see it.

Which wiki, where above? You could also just google "Monty hall problem"

But you have to thing from the first ball, not the second.
2/3 chance the first ball was taken from box 1
1/3 chance the first ball was taken from box 2

So it's 2/3 chance that you are in the first box when you draw the second ball, thus it's 2/3 chance you get another golden ball.

Freaky question, I like it.

I'm pretty sure if anyone here is missing anything it's you.

This is a trick question, for it to be a legitimate math problem it would have to say "You pick a ball at random until you get a gold ball" which would infer the increased chance of picking box 1.

This is a simple case of conditional probability, something similar to the Monty Hall problem

but the double silver box is not removed.
didnt i say dont argue with me

No, becuase we pick boxes, not balls, it is exactly as likely that you picked the gold and silver box as it is that you picked the double gold, you are using an irrelevant factor.

Google Monty hall problem, retard.

Try game theory, you'll like it

It's not been removed but it has been eliminated, duh

Just seems like a shitty phrased question as the starting point is that you already have a gold ball, and you will get a gold ball every single time, despite it being a game of odds.

>the op literally says pick a box
>nooooo the boxes dont matter only the balls so reword the question like this hurr durr

Fucking mega yikes, did you people fail 8th grade math and 3rd grade reading comprehension?

>How are you twice as likely to have picked box two, seeing as weve picked one of three boxes with equal of
>Odds

It's not equal odds. This has been explained above.

if you pick the g/g box, there is a 100% chance of your first ball being a gold ball.

if you pick the g/s box, there is a 50% chance of your ball being a gold ball.

If you pick the s/s box there is a 0% chance of your ball being a gold ball.

So, with basic chance, if you pick 3000 times,

you have picked :

1000 gold balls from g/g

500 gold balls from g/s

and 0 gold balls from s/s.

So, assuming you ARE holidng a gold ball, there is a 2/3 chance it is from g/g box, and therefore the other gold ball you pick after is also gold.

What
and
said.

To frame this as the monty hall problem:

one box contains mixed balls, the other two boxes contain balls which are the same colour as each other.

You pick a box and look at the colour of your ball.

What is the odds the ball in the box is the same colour?

2/3

.......

>it is exactly as likely that you picked the gold and silver box as it is that you picked the double gold

NO IT IS NOT!!!!! If you pick the mixed box, there is only a 50% chance the first ball you pick out is gold. Which does change things.

You dod say that but you're a mongoloid and a liar, the silver box is irrelevant, if the first pick was gold we clearly dont have the double silver box, that would be impossible. Are you actually retarded? Loke aspergers at a minimum I'd guess.

You don't include the fact that you actually got a golden ball.
If the question was: What's the chance you get a golden ball. 1/2 would be correct.

I'll check it out. Thanks!

A classic. It's different problem though, not the same where goats, cars, and doors have been replaced with balls and boxes. A different problem.

This sums it up perfectly. Why are we still discussing it?

>A classic. It's different problem though, not the same where goats, cars, and doors have been replaced with balls and boxes. A different problem.

It is different, but the underpinning logic is the same- the root of the question is what is the chance of picking a "mixed box" or "winning door."

Showing what is behind one door, or showing you have picked a golden ball, doesn't change the odds (1/3) of you picking a winning door or the mixed box.

Going by the question in the image
>And not your stupid comment
It's a 50/50 chance

You're retarded, atop saying its explained above and stop saying it's on whatever wiki if you wont link it. The fact that one box has two golds does not mean you were twice as likely to have picked it, there are only three boxes, and only three choices, once you eliminate double silver there are only 2 possible boxes out of the intial three you could pick, so ots 50/50.

If you randomly choose 3000 times you're perfect distributions would be 1000 for box one, 1000 for box 2 and 1000 for box three.
If you dont be live me google Monty hall problem or what this

youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0

>1000 for box 2

500 of which are gold, 500 which are silver.

This isn't monte hall , but is similar

>NO IT IS NOT!!!!! If you pick the mixed box, there is only a 50% chance the first ball you pick out is gold. Which does change things.
No ot doesnt, there are only three bo es to choose from, picking the silver ball or the gold ball forst doesnt change your odds of having picked that box, that would be retarded, you're basically saying that if I flip to coins at one 100 times I o ly have a 25% chance of getting heads kn either coin, or just doesnt make sense.

It's 1/2. The only chances that actually exist are 0%, 50% and 100%. Everything else is nonsense. The ball you pick out will be golden or it won't be.

It's similar yes.

Especially in the way that you intuitively think it's a 50-50 chance, when the fact is that it isn't.

So I'm unsure why I should
>Google Monty hall problem, retard.
when I give the correct solution to OP's question. The none-intuitive and correct one.

>You don't include the fact that you actually got a golden ball.
Yes you do dumbass, the question literally starts at "you have selected one golden ball from a box" the fire eliminating the chance of picking the double silver.

The first chance that you get a gold ball is 50%, as there are 3 gold and 3 silver balls.

Out of the 2 boxes with gold balls, it's 2 out of 3 that you have picked the double gold box.

But I feel the whole concept is flawed because by default you're pulling out a gold ball, but you're talking about odds and repeated choices, when choices have already been made, and its just designed to be confusing.

OP only gets blue balls

>A classic. It's different problem though, not the same where goats, cars, and doors have been replaced with balls and boxes. A different problem.
So by that thinking this problem wouldnt be analogous if we changed the balls from silver and gold to red and blue, that doesnt make any sense, you're pulling this out of your ass.

In your calculations I mean.

There's 2 steps.
Step 1.
-- You are here --
Step 2.

But you have to calculate from step 1 with the data you've already gathered. Data you didn't have before step one.

Right, and 1000 are still box 2 which is why it's irrelevant. GG

But I think the issue is that in the example, you already have a gold ball, every single time, so the silver box just has no place there.

So then its only about box 1 and 2.

Yes you are corrct and yes it is confusing.

The puzzle would be less confusing (but less fun) if it said you pick out a ball, what are the odds that the other ball in the same box is the same colour as it?

Which, of course, is 2/3 .

The fact that gold is specified doesn't actually change those odds (of it being the same colour) if you state the the first ball is gold.

Ignoring all the shitposting troll bullshit in this thread, and just answering the question

It is cleary a 50% chance. Why? Because if you picked a gold ball, then you're in one of two boxes. Depending on which box it is you're pulling from, you will either pull a silver ball or a gold ball from the same box, next.

It's a 50% chance that the next ball in the SAME box will be gold, clearly, because you're either in the box with two gold balls or one gold and one silver. It can be nothing else but a 50% probability of the next ball being gold.

So, you've just been proven wrong. it is 50%, not 2/3.

What is your counter point here, that we have to pretend that even though we have a gold ball the box we choose could still be double silver? How does that make sense? When we eliminate a possibility, we no longer factor it in, if you have the option to go to the mall, the theater and the rodeo, but then the mall burns down, do you still have three options? By the line of thinking you're trying to present you would have to somehow, that doesnt make sense, seek an education.

Yes, it is about box 1 and 2.

But think of this- there is a silver ball in box 2 ( the g/s box. )

So half the time, when you pick box 2, it is eliminated just like box 3.

So in every 6 picks, (or 600 etc) you would naturally pick box 1 (g/g ) 200 times, and keep it every time.

pick box 2 (g/s) 200 times, but half of those are eliminations becuse you pick the silver ball.

and pick box 3 (s/s) 200 times, all of which are eliminations.

Do you see? What is left is 300 picks there, 200 of which are box 1 (g/g)

There's always limits. They are similar. That's it.

Why should I google another problem when I got the correct answer to this one? What would it prove?
If he asked me to google the name of THIS problem to prove me wrong, that would be something else

I argued for 50/50 for most of this thread, but I guess what it comes down to is that: You have a gold ball, and 2 boxes where it could have come from.

1 box has 2 gold balls and 1 box only had 1 gold ball in it, so from what box did the ball come.
And then yes, I agree that it makes more sense that it came from the box with the 2 gold balls.

However a part of me still feels that it only becomes relevant when you repeat this proces.

>It is cleary a 50% chance. Why? Because if you picked a gold ball, then you're in one of two boxes

But the chance of you being in one of those two boxes is not equal. As explained many many mnay times.

>and 2 boxes where it could have come from.

But the chance of it coming from those 2 boxes is not equal!!! See the many posts above.

50/50

Isn't that what I said, 2 boxes where it could have come from, but 1 of those boxes has 2 gold balls, so that's more likely.

Ah yeah, sorry! So you are not arguing 50/50- any more?

>The puzzle would be less confusing (but less fun) if it said you pick out a ball, what are the odds that the other ball in the same box is the same colour as it?
>Which, of course, is 2/3 .
So if I pick a ball, and its silver, how do I have a 2/3 chance that my other ball is also silver? I clearly dont have the double gold box seeing as I have on silver, so I have either the gold and silver box or the silver and silver box, there are only 2 options for what box i could have, right? So how do you get to 2/3 when you only have two possible results.

thats irrelevant to the question you mong. It is stated you ALREADY picked a box that had a gold ball, therefore the information about a third box with 2 silver balls is no longer a factor since the final question is " *picking from the SAME box* what is the probability the NEXT ball is gold?"

Had the question been 'what is the chance you picked this box' then sure.

I'm not a teacher, I can't explain pedagogically any better than I did in I think.

If someone doesn't understand that post, they will have to look for someone else to explain it to them I'm afraid.

Its just the whole picks doesn't make sense when the first ball always has to be gold, so it's just the setup of the whole thing that is misleading and confusing.

>1 box has 2 gold balls and 1 box only had 1 gold ball in it, so from what box did the ball come.

THIS!!! there is a 2/3 chance your gold ball is from a box with another gold ball.

Your comment is completely irrelevant to the discussion. You have already chosen a gold ball when this thought exercise begins, so you already know exactly what's in your hand, you're not pulling blind and putting a probability on the second draw, your first draw is done, and accounted for, it's over, forget about the past. You have a gold ball in your hand. There's a 0% chance you're in a double silver box. Forget about it, move on. Your temporal understanding of this problem is strange to the point that you're either conflating the exercise with some other problem, or you're dliberately trolling.

Think about it, and explain to me how what you have said in any way changes that the probability of the next ball being gold is, in fact, 50%?

Like 1 in 3 or something. I only sort of remember the math...

How the hell can you possibly imagine that it's a 2/3 chance? There's a 0% chance you're in a silver only box. There are only two options, you're in a box with 2 gold or one gold and one silver. It's 50%

the question doesn't care which golden ball you pick. and you literally answered the question when you said there are two outcomes. the question only asks if a ball is gold, yes or no. it doesn't ask what the probability is to pick anyone of the golden balls. it is literally "what is the probability the next ball is gold"

Is it not 2/3 because you have to pick from the same box again

It's explained here:

yeah, it hinges on people assuming that there is an equal chance they have picked box 1 or 2, as "they both contain gold balls"

basic false logic is that if you have 2 options, it must be 50/50 .

for the 50/50 ppl:

go try this with a friend-

set up the game with balls or coins or whatever

if u pick a silver ball it's a push, start again

if u pick a gold ball, bet a dollar; if u pick a silver ball next you win, if you pick a gold ball next your friend wins

count how many tries it takes to bankrupt you

I'll make this really easy for you. Probability is tricky and very counter intuitive. It just doesn't work the way you think it would at first glance. Accept it and be in awe at the math of the universe.

Then you can join us in gawking at shit like how in a room of 23 people there's a 50% chance 2 people share a birthday.

>You have already chosen a gold ball when this thought exercise begins

No its not. And understanding that is the key.

You are holding a gold ball, but the chance of it being from box 1 or box 2 is not even.

Can everyone post if they think it's 50% or not and then whether or not they unironically like trump? I have a hunch.

2/3, MAGA

>Then you can join us in gawking at shit like how in a room of 23 people there's a 50% chance 2 people share a birthday.

That is the basic "and" rule. It's the same reason most people see one or two of their lottery numbers come up.

>basic false logic is that if you have 2 options, it must be 50/50

THIS!!!

This. 50% chance the next ball is gold.

I read that, and it's total baloney. I'm asking you to explain your logic. The problem starts with you having a gold ball in your hand. You know you're not in a silver box. You are either in a box with two gold balls or in a box with one silver and one gold. There are only two possible results on the second draw. The second ball is either gold (box 1) or silver (box 2). it is 50%.

Notice how I explained this logically and pedantically? Your turn, prove me wrong.

tl:dr With a gold ball in hand, you are either in box 1 or 2, as 3 has no gold balls. Then, there is an equal chance that you are in either box one or two, and an equal chance that the next ball is gold.

It's the same probability that the next ball will be silver. it is 50%

>So half the time, when you pick box 2, it is eliminated just like box 3.
In what sense? We didnt draw a silver ball, we drew gold, the likelihood of starting with gold is irrelevant to the question being asked.

This question is so easy, so many idiots in this thread.

>you select one ball from a box and it is GOLD
>That means only two of the boxes are possible, BoxOne(1,0) and BoxTwo(1, 1)
>BoxThree(0, 0) is irrelevant because no Gold ball is in it.

The confusion of the 2/3 is simple people here are dumb and didnt read the question.

IT SAYS PICKED THE NEXT BALL FROM THE SAME BOX YOU PICKED THE FIRST BALL FROM.

THEREFORE

You are left with the state

Box(1, null) OR Box(0, null)

The question is asking about this specific state after the first ball is selected. Therefore 50/50.

>You have already chosen a gold ball when this thought exercise begins, so you already know exactly what's in your hand, you're not pulling blind and putting a probability on the second draw, your first draw is done, and accounted for, it's over, forget about the past. You have a gold ball in your hand. There's a 0% chance you're in a double silver box. Forget about it, move on. Your temporal understanding of this problem is strange to the point that you're either conflating the exercise with some other problem, or you're dliberately trolling.

Would it help if there were 100000 boxes with 2 gold balls in, and one with mixed gold / silver.

You are holding a gold ball, it's 50/50 that your ball is from the box with the silver ball in, right? duh.

Fool, it isn't asking you to calculate the probability of which box you're in, it's asking you to calculate what the probability that the NEXT BALL IN THE SAME BOX will be gold. It is 50%

You dont have the correct solution to this problem, the other problem deals with factors relevant to understanding this problem.

Asserting you have the correct solution doesnt make it so, troll.

>With a gold ball in hand, you are either in box 1 or 2

Yes, but the chance of you being in box 1 or 2 is not equal READ the thread.

With a gold ball in your hand, there is a 2/3 chance you picked box 1. (g/g box.)

Are you people retarded or so hung up on some shit you learned in class to just BLOW THE FUCK PAST the fact that the question is not asking the probability of what BOX you're in, it's asking what the probability of the next ball being GOLD

The may post that are irrelevant and giving the wrong answer over and over despite the sevral clear explanations as to why that's irrelevant to the question being asked?

>Fool, it isn't asking you to calculate the probability of which box you're in

Calculating the probability of which box you are in is how your work out the answer.

As someone said above, if you don't get this, make that bet with a friend.

It's 2/3.

Disregard box 3 completely as you cannot pick a gold ball out of it.

There a 3 golden balls and a silver one. Assuming the ball isn't replaced, when you picked it there are now 2 golden balls left.

Now there are only 2 balls out of 3 that are golden.

Ok, new angle...
Surely you know if you flip a coin it's 50, 50 you'll get heads... And the second time, it's still 50/50. Your odds do not change based on what's already happened. It remains based on the options... Now:

You have drawn a gold ball. That eliminates box 3..

There are 3 balls left... 2 are gold, 1 is silver... The odds of it being gold are 2/3...

Is that getting in your skull now?

not the same guy, but here:

the game doesn't start with a ball in hand- the game starts when u randomly draw a ball from a box- silver ball? draw, try again. gold ball? game moves forward. second draw silver? you lose. second draw gold? you win.

well, 'you win' if know the odds are 2/3

Sorry bruh. You're the only answer. Not a good enough sample size. Enjoy your day friend.

You must be very confused.. The question asks what the probability that the next ball is gold. It's 50%. It's not asking you to calculate the probability that you're in any specific box. It's asking what the chance of the next ball IN THE SAME BOX being gold.

You're in one of two boxes. It's either gold or silver with equal chance. It is 50%

You're using irrelevant factors, it impossible to tell which boxes is double gold until we open it, we know we have one gold, how likely is it that the next ball from the same box is also gold? There are two possible options, gold ball or not gold ball, the fact that one of the options has had two gold balls since before we picked is irrelevant.

the probability of the next ball being gold is linked to the probability of which box it was in. Due to the combinations of gold and silver balls.

It's 2/3 because you can choose either the left or middle box to start with

100% of Trump fans are good at math, now

0%

>2 golden balls left

That is false. You're not in a big box with all the balls mixed up, you're in a small box with only two balls. You pulled one and it's gold and THERE IS ONLY ONE BALL LEFT IN THE BOX
You only have one ball left. It's either gold or silver. it is 50%

jesus fucking christ, we laught at facebook posts with "2+2x4=16" but this is probably worse. It's 1/2 you fucking genuine retards.

Nah he's right based on the survey...

Yep, this works too.

>You're in one of two boxes. It's either gold or silver with equal chance. It is 50%

No it's not, because there is not an equal chance you are in one of those two boxes.

You could start with the left or middle box. Therefore it's 2/3

Sigh. No. The first pick is highly relevant.

And explaining logic that >xxx940 want me to do is a little though.

I'll google this shit and let others explain.

>2/3, MAGA
This pretty much sums up trump supporters lol >feels are truth hurp durp

Go test it. Now. Go find 3 pennies and 3 nickels and 3 boxes. Do it 1000 times. That should be enough to show you.

Yay, found it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

and a tldr:
>It may seem that the probability that the remaining coin is gold is 1/2, but in truth, the probability is actually 2/3.

surprise...

Your logic fails you, grasshopper.

This isn't a big box of balls. There is only ONE ball left in your box, and there is an equal chance that it is silver or gold. How the fuck can you imagine that equal chance is 2/3? The answer can only be 50%

If you eliminate box 3, you're in either box one or two. There's not 4 balls in the box you're holding, there's no chance you'll ever pull 2 gold balls or two any color balls. There is only one more draw and there is an EQUAL probability that the last ball in that same box will be silver or gold.

i hope you're just trying to troll

Attached: #METOO.jpg (460x359, 27K)

It's 2/3, stop being retarded

It is impossible for you to be in any other box but one or two, as you have eliminated 3, so how the fuck do you figure?

Just see and be on with it.

The logic doesn't fail. What makes the problem so deceiving is because it is important to consider *all* the balls not drawn. People "logically" really want to see this one way but it isn't.

I think the key is to reverse the proces, because you already have a gold ball to begin with.

If then you were told there are 2 boxes, one with 2 gold and one with 1 gold ball, what is most likely as to where it came from?

Then it should be more likely that it came from a box with the 2 gold balls in it.

the symbol # is actually called an octothorpe properly. Its called hashtag on the internet, and pound on telephones. You are full retard lol

I don't care what the colour is,
that any dupe pulls out first, from any of the three boxes:
I am always going to bet that when the dupe
pulls the second ball out of that same box, it will be the same colour as the first ball he pulled out.

If the dupe wants to bet that the chance is 50-50 ( p=0.5 ) and bet on it being the opposite colour, I'll take that bet all day long and give him slight odds in his favour, if he believes his instinct is correct.

I honestly don't know if the 50/50 here are trolls. Sadly, I think not.

We all seem to understand that the s/s is elimaited.

So lets try it at home, with cups.

put two pennies in one cup, they are your gold balls.

put a penny and a five in another, they are the gold and silver mixed.

Then pick and cup, pick a coin.

if you pick a gold coin, take the other coin in the cup and note down if it was gold or silver.

results will be:

25% silver first, diregarded.

50% gold then another gold

25% gold then silver.

so out of the 75% you are disregarding then it's 2/3 gold-gold.

When you draw the first ball, as long as you get silver you repeat until you get gold. since there are two gold balls in one box, but only one gold ball in the other, it is double as likely to get the "two gold balls" box on your first successfull draw, therefore it is double as likely the second ball will also be gold.

Attached: Confuctius.png (1798x948, 1.35M)

even only two boxes have a gold ball in them so the remaining one is either silver or gold

every time you pick box 2, ( g/s) there is a 50% chance you are elimianting that too.

odds are, out of 6 times you would pick each box twice. so you are left with box 1 twice and box 2 once. see?

>In a survey of 53 Psychology freshmen taking an introductory probability course, 35 incorrectly responded 1/2; only 3 students correctly responded 2/3.

>only 3 students correctly responded

>only 3

Guys, I dunno, this seems pretty bogus. I just tried it and it, and in practice it's like 50% chance, so what's with this irrational nonsense? This can't be right.

Yes, it is either silver or gold, but that doesn't make it a 50/50 chance. Due to what goes before.

try this:

>It's 2/3.
No, it's cancerous faggot bait. Die from your AIDS faggot.

Attached: 154646160912.png (1440x1530, 1.23M)

Gambling is against my religion, heathen.

I read the wiki article

Still don't buy it

Fucking black magic sorcery shit like this is why people end up in debt for generations. Are you sure these people aren't witches and warlocks pushing a false narrative?

Can we be sure?

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probably why you have trouble with probability

actually it's 0%. you're not able to calculate probability because it's based on total randomness

>I just tried it.
How many times? The thing with probability is you'll have to do it a fuck tonne before the statistical outcomes start to show.. you could do this 10 times and draw a silver ball 70% of the time.

Also this is a famous and old problem and there are explanations all over the internet.. Google it. It's 2/3.

There's a similar one called the gameshow paradox. You have 3 doors, one of which hides a prize. You start by choosing your door. The gameshow host then shows you what's behind one of the other doors at random, then gives you the chance to change your pick.

You actually have a *greater chance* of winning if you change your option at this point.

God no wonder you spend so much time on Yea Forums you're fucking retarded.

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---troll line---

pure silver box is eliminated
2 boxes left
50/50 chance to have picked the gold box or not.

---troll line---

This guy trying to be a smart ass.
Probability is very much calculable. It's literally how casinos make money.. they give themselves a small statistical edge, and overtime probability does it's thing without fail every time, so they win.

Probability is very set and predictable over long periods and high numbers.

What went before is you picked a ball out and know you have to remove the remaining ball which can only be silver or gold so its evens

I did it like a bunch of times man, and I used to watch price is right and I've studied that probability problem and understand it, but this one is different, and even after reading the wiki article and doing the math myself, I still don't get it.

Look, I get it, the math says it's 2/3, right? I can do the math. But logically I'm still not buying it. It doesn't process. Are you sure you aren't a warlock? Would you be willing to let us tie you up and see if you float when we toss you in the river, to be sure? If you sink It'll mean you're probably not a witch, so you can rest easy.

You're either a troll or a retard, its 1/2 there's really no grey area with that

>Look, I get it, the math says it's 2/3, right?

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It is 50-50 and anyone who thinks any different is so stupid they should use a shotgun to paint the far wall pink.

How many Balls can be in past the original 2 balls per box. Cause then you can add balls to the color u need and just put a bunch in them.

red
there is likely no grey matter to be found

But this is why it's famous... Because partly it demonstrates how human "logic" can fail.. you're missing something, that's all. just because it "seems right" doesn't mean it is.

>But this is why it's famous
it isn't.
it's popular troll bait

It's existed long before trolls dude. Humans been all over mathematical paradoxes since the dang Greeks and before.

I don't believe it's 2/3, even with all these pedantic explanations. I think some people must be brainwashed like with the climate change shit.

I can only imagine that the next ball is either silver or gold.

I have passed 3rd grade actually. Taken comp sci classes too. Pretty easy to write a program to test this. Go ahead and try. Throw out the draws that pull silver first and you'll find that if you run it long enough you'll pull gold in the second draw twice as often as silver. This problem has been solved long ago. It's a variation of the Two Child Problem. You might as well argue the sun revolves around the earth because that's what you see.

youtube.com/watch?v=RA6POO0x9h8

Think of it like this. I put these three boxes in front of you and bet you money that you'll pull the same two color balls, either gold OR silver, instead of two different ones from the same box. Do you make that bet? Of course not. Because you know the odds of drawing both colors is 2 out of 3.

If it's such a paradox, why doesn't someone put their money where their mouth is and open a casino with just this one game, and if you're right about being 2/3 then you'd be a fucking millionaire, scamming all these poor people with your Jew trickery, right?

But we don't see this game anywhere

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>It's existed long before trolls dude.
trolls is the name given to intentional provocateurs at the dawn of the internet.
intentional provocateurs predate the internet.

outside of math-teachers occasionally using this to test their class, it holds no merit beyond being popular troll bait.

the problem with the 50/50ppl is they're only seeing the outcomes: either it's a gold ball or a silver ball, therefore...

by that reasoning, every time i play the lottery there are two possible outcomes: either i win the lottery or i don't win the lottery, therefore 50/50

>the problem with the 50/50ppl is
that you are a baby-troll unable to fool anyone

>This mathematically.demonstrable problem is wrong because it doesn't look right to me
>Just like climate change

I need to screenshot this, frame it and donate it to a museum and call it "my feelings are as important as your facts: why America went to shit".

because it's so blatantly in the house's favour that no one would play it

finally a troll who at least put "some" effort into his post

This is literally exactly how casinos work dude... They do exactly this. they play probability and make your odds look better than it is...

>the price is right doesn't exist
k

The whole thread you are changing the conditions for your little experiment. That's how I know you are a troll. And changing it further doesn't prove shit.

That's how I came into it as well, and whilst trying to argue it was 50/50, I kinda get stuck at 2/3.

It's just the question itself that is misleading, for starters the third box is entirely useless, and its not so much about, what is the next ball, but more of a, where did the ball come from.

If you have a gold ball in your hand that came from a box, is it more likely it was picked from a box with a 100% chance, or picked from a box with 50% chance.

Both are possible, but it's obviously more likely it came from the 100% box.

how much does the player put down when playing the price is right?

It's not misleading or meant to be lol. It's just an exercise and demonstration if how counter intuitively probability is. It's not meant to trick you as much as it is, in itself, tricky.

Let's rephrase the question.
Remove all the silver balls, the don't exist.

You have 2 boxes.
Box A has 2 balls in it.
Box B has 1 ball in it.
You close your eyes and pick a ball at random.

How big is the chance that you picked one from Box A?

Itt
Trump voters are faced with a logical problem and scream and cry when it isn't as simple as they think and demand the world conform to their perceptions.

Its (3/6 + 2/5)%

Consider the implications of this post :

It has 3 boxes for starters, whilst dismissing the third one entirely from the very beginning, then talk about odds whilst already having you with a gold ball by default, and then ask about what happens next, whilst the real problem is about what happened before that.