You should be able to solve this

crit + crit
crit + no crit
no crit + crit
33%
?

this is the correct answer
if 1 crit is certain, only the uncertain crit matters

if a crit happened second, the first one could have also been a crit
if a crit happened second, the first one could have been a hit
if a crit happened first, the second one could have been hit

that's three distinct possibilities (50% is two possibilities)

you're right en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

the order of possibilities is the definition of probability

50%
>Crit (mandatory)/Crit
>Crit/Crit (mandatory)
>Crit (mandatory)/No crit
>No crit/Crit (mandatory)

two of those are the same outcome in terms of what the question is asking though

not in probability, because they directly reduced the chance of two crits happening from 1/2 to 1/3

It really is just 50%. Anything else is just a confused take that the guaranteed crit is randomly placed (it's not) and that this would affect anything.

There are four possible outcomes
>No crits
>One crit, one miss
>One miss, one crit
>Two crits
As it's a coin-flip, each is equal possibility. However, since we know that we have to have at least one crit, we can eliminate the first result. We have three results, each as likely, so the probability of two crits is 33%.

Order does matter because it means that you're twice as likely to get one crit as you are to get two crits.

>Guaranteed crit doesn't happen first
>First crit is a 50%
>Guaranteed crit does happen first
>Second crit is a 50%
Literally nothing changes

Attached: 1651484057127.jpg (570x318, 20.86K)

why did you describe a 25% hypothesis and conclude with 50%?

very good, finally someone with a brain

Attached: best-units-of-fire-emblem-awakening.jpg (1200x1200, 69.01K)

ok time to flowchart this shit.
attack 1: 2 outcomes, crit or not crit, fifty fifty.
>scenario a: attack 1 is not a crit, attack 2 will be forced crit. this has a fifty percent chance of happening, so the total probabilities of events in scenario B have to total 50%
>scenario B: attack 1 crits
your confirmed crit has happened, the second attack being a crit is now random.
>scenario B1: attack 2 crits
this has a 50% chance after the fifty percent chance of us being down the B branch in the first place, the double crit timeline has a 25% chance total. the same applies to scenario B2.
tldr:
>normal, crit (forced): 50%
>crit, normal: 25%
>crit, crit (random): 25%

you have a twenty five percent chance of both hits being a crit, assuming my math is correct.

Attached: 1646238592329.jpg (1497x2242, 1.39M)

is fire emblem actually this retarded? do they try to pass this off as 33%? this is professor layton levels of misdirection retardation

user... you listed three possibilities that are all as likely to happen, how much of a percentage is that?

it's edited

you are saying it's 1/3 but isn't getting two crits two cases, when first one is the guaranteed one and when the second one is

No it does not matter. You can easily verify this by making two tracks, one where the first hit is guaranteed and one where the second is guaranteed. No matter which track you choose you are always rolling for that other hit for a 50% chance.
You can use any algorithm for selecting track - a 50/50 chance or 16/84 percent chance or whatever. You always end up in a 50% scenario.

no because the result is still effectively a double crit, the order of no crit and crit actually changes the probability

courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/cse312/11wi/slides/04cprob.pdf

Attached: 1651409737858.png (1033x804, 114.94K)

If the first crit isn't guaranteed but crits anyway, the "At least one crits." rule is satisfied and the 2nd is no longer guaranteed, it's now up to chance. But if the 1st hit fails to crit, the 2nd now needs to crit.

they AREN'T just as likely to happen, because we have the flag that means you always get at least one crit. if the first attack isn't a crit, then the second is forced to be one, but if the first IS a crit, you already got your 'at least one crit' fulfilled, meaning it has to pass the second coin flip if you want 2. the three outcomes aren't all JUST as likely to happen specifically because of the additional rule.

you guys keep saying
no crit + crit
crit + no crit

and not listing crit + crit twice.

there is
no crit + crit
crit + no crit
crit + crit
crit + crit

in which it's 50% to get both crits. if you want to be autistic and try to morph part of the question into something else to make a point where you don't need to, you need to remember that for every crit side there is either crit or no crit. meaning there's two cases of crit + crit

The actual order of the results doesn't matter, but considering it as two separate events does. The events aren't influenced by the result of each other, which is the error you're making in assuming one is guaranteed when the other's not. Saying that at least one of them is a crit is just saying that you can remove a possible outcome.

You're overcomplicating the question and turning it into a mess. It's literally flipping a coin twice and eliminating one of the possible outcomes. This is an incredibly basic probability problem. The order matters because, like I just said, they're separate events and thus you're twice as likely to get a result of just one crit.

The ACTUAL order isn't what's important, it doesn't matter if you get a crit first, but treating them as separate events is what matters. Like rolling dice. Rolling three six-sided dice, you're more likely to get average results than the extremes because there's more possible combinations that can result in an average outcome (three 3s makes a 9, but so does a 1,2, and 6, or a 2, 2, and 5, or a 1, 3, and 5), whereas rolling a 3 or an 18 has a single possible combination each (three 1s, or three 6s). The dice are separate entities. Rolling a crit is literally rolling a die.

you're processing it seperately, when the premise is determining the probability (the total amount of possibilities) which should produce a number with the first coin flip accounted for. this is the basis of bayesian theorem.

We just had this thread you faggot.

GOES IN ALL FIELDS

>meaning there's two cases of crit + crit
You are dumb as rocks. There are no crit "sides" you fucking ape. The first crit is NEVER guaranteed. The 2nd crit IS IF ONLY the first hit doesn't crit.

I treat anything past 30% like it is a 100% so 100%

there is no morphing going on, crit + crit and crit + crit is not equivalent to separating no crit + crit and crit + no crit because the latter is a genuinely distinct order of events whereas the former is effectively identical

This post was made by a retard that realized his answer was wrong so now he has to bait pretending it isn't 50% because of how butthurt he is lol

you are schizophrenic if you think it's 50%

no, imagine if i have a double headed coin and a normal coin. What are the odds if both lands on heads? if you say 33% you're a retard.

If one is guaranteed there can only be one coin flip, not two.

It's 50%. Even if one crit wasn't guaranteed, it's still 50% because each attack is a seperate event. 50% chance for the first crit, 50% chance for the second crit.

Yes I've taken mathematical statistics and these are modeling different problems.

100%

I reset until I roll both crits

git fukt

Attached: 1565858437508.png (508x610, 26.51K)

you need to pick a tougher math question than this if you're going to try to defend the wrong answer for attention. it's obviously not 33%. only a retard would think that

Is that why you have no argument for it? lol

>Flip once
>Tails, game over, assume 2nd is heads

>New game, flip once, get heads
>Flip afucking again to see if you get heads twice now

Attached: 1556358587573.gif (600x450, 78.92K)

>Even if one crit wasn't guaranteed, it's still 50% because each attack is a seperate event.
even if you're a 50% retard you're even more deluded here, there were two attacks

>plays on classic
>resets because one of his unique units dies

argument for what? your initial response was a complete ad hominem
>lol
go back

>you need to pick a tougher math question
obviously not when you can't even answer this one correctly

For the purpose of the thought experiment though, theres actually only one attack being made.

One of the attacks is a 100% crit, we are trying to figure out the chance of the OTHER attack being a crit.

If crit chance is 50%, and we only need to find the chance of 1 attack being a crit...

It answers its fucking self.

Anyone not answering 50% is reddit tier.

There's nothing that changes the odds. If a roulette wheel was spun and black got chosen 10 times in a row, that doesn't suddenly change the odds of black being chosen on the 11th spin, it's still 50% (if you ignore the green 0) chance of black being chosen again.

This is impressively bad understanding of probability and mental math gymnastics.

That 50% is the correct answer. Go ahead disprove it.

C/H
H/C
C/C
There is only three possible outcomes. therefore 1/3

>C/H
>H/C
These are the same

C/H
H/C
C/C
C/C

50%

Even if the game was programmed to roll first and then overwite the answer with the guaranteed roll if applicable the chance is still 50% because the outcome of any one roll does not depend on the other.

are you genuinely retarded or trolling? if there's two attacks with 50% crit attributes that's four distinct possibilities so it does matter there are two attacks

and one of the four possibilities is eliminated, you do the math and determine how many possibilities are left. you have to be american.

Pretending to be retarded for (You)s doesn't not make you retarded.

.

Attached: tzfkzutfvkluzhg.png (946x469, 22.07K)

NOOO YOU HAVE TO TAKE ORDER INTO CONSIDERATION
NOOO NOT LIKE THAT

Yes, but the odds of getting black 11 times in a row aren't 50%. Getting it on each spin are 50%, not in a row. The odds of getting black twice in a row are 25%, because it's 50% of 50%. Similarly, the odds of getting red twice in a row are 25% for the same reason. Getting red-black and black-red are each 25% because they're two 50% results following each other. That leaves four possible outcomes, each at a 25% chance.

Now apply that to crits. No crits is 25% chance because it's 50% of 50%, so on. In this question, getting no crits isn't a possibility, though, so we can remove that outcome, which leaves us with three outcomes of equal possibility. 33%.