Hardest choice is at the very end of the game

>hardest choice is at the very end of the game

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Other urls found in this thread:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/
youtube.com/watch?v=RYzQvj3icjs
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

>hard
But it's not hard at all

switching increases your chances

NIGGA I WANT THE GOAT

BE STILL, MUHAMMAD. If we get the car we can trade it for many goats.

1 / 3 if you don't switch
2 / 3 if you do switch

I call shenanigans

It's 50/50 you mongoloid there's only 2 choices

>women math
you make a choice, initially, 1/3 per door. once a door is revealed fake, you have a binary choice, to stay with your choice or to move your choice to the other door. this is 50/50.

Incorrect. To understand this, you might need to think about what the person that reveals the other door already knows.

The chances that you picked the wrong door initially was 2/3. You are shown one door that is absolutely the losing choice. Your chances of having initially picked the wrong door are still 2/3. Switching increases your odds of landing on the winning door, because the odds were you picked the wrong door in the first place.

Either:

1) The "don't switch" side is correct, and there is a 50/50 chance to win once a door is revealed to have a goat, or;

2) The "always switch" side is correct, and you have a greater chance to win by switching doors.

You cannot do worse by switching, regardless of whether (1) or (2) is true, but there is some non-zero chance that (2) is true, so which case you should always switch.

If an outside party comes in at the same time as the decision, and must choose between the two doors with, are their odds of success the same as yours?

Do you think all goats are the same? I want THAT goat.

Their odds are better if you decide not to switch so they pick the remaining door, actually.

You always switch

Imagine 100 doors. You pick 1. 98 other doors are now opened. You had a 1/100 chance picking right the first time, so you probably picked wrong. Therefore you should switch, because the other door is probably the prize

What if they are unaware of your decision? To them, it's just picking between two doors?

Think about it this way. If you originally chose a goat, switching doors will always yield the car. If you originally chose the car, switching will always yield a goat. Because you had a 2/3rds change of originally choosing a goat, switching will give you a 2/3rds chance of ending up with a car.

Someone explain this to me

Then naturally their chances are 50/50, unless they are like ahmed in this thread, and just want that goat.

It's the same odds because the way it makes sense is your door is probably wrong. Your door is still probably wrong even though they have no context to understand why.

So with both choices in play, if we were to say from a neutral standpoint aware of both parties, "what are the odds of door 2 being correct", what would the answer be?

Doesn't that mean every statistical calculation would be wrong, due to lack of perfect information about all of the aspects leading up to the choice?

except the third theory is correct

if feminists weren't pushing fake math, they'd understand that it's a 40/60 40 staying and 60 switching,

Monty will always reveal a wrong answer, but you are given a binary choice, it depends on what the person who is showing you the door's motives are.

but i guess the "I HAVE THE HIGHEST IQ FOR A WOMAN" math lady probably knows best, she's watched rick and morty

honestly, Yea Forums defending this whore just shows how far it's fallen.

Who or what in the fuck are you talking about?

This, Mythbusters did it

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Marilyn vos savant, the fraud who made her "solution" and when actual PHDs went at her, shut them down as sexist.

monty hall problem is just feminist propaganda, with no real backing unless you "turn off your brain XD"

>brainlet cope

What does that have to do with the monty hall problem?

>monty hall problem is just feminist propaganda, with no real backing unless you "turn off your brain XD"
I don't even know where this comes from. I'm guessing you're trying to make /pol/ look dumb, but it's not necessary.

The sheer problem with this broken ideology is that it simply moves the binary

instead of the binary being at that choice, it's at the actions, which isn't the case in real world application. it's why it took 50 experiments to get 1 set of results to "prove it"

this is some "rick and morty big brain math" good job feminist

go back to whatever up voting trash you came from.

FINALLY
someone gets it! I fucking hate these retards who act like it's not a 50/50 choice

Seethe more brainlet

/thread

>it's why it took 50 experiments to get 1 set of results to "prove it"
You can just write a quick program to run it and tabulate the results from both the "switch" and "don't switch" options.

I agree with this, not because i know math but because i think women shouldn't be allowed to do math

>i dont know what a mathematical paradox is
seethe harder retard

I love that people go around in life assuming that Monty Hall was just randomly opening doors every episode, but never did
>well let's see what's behind here
>whoops, it's the car! Go sit the fuck back down, now.

Forget math and statistics; how do you not understand basic showmanship?

this is probably the only intelligent thing i've read in this thread

The goat isn't revealed, the goat reveals itself to you. When you understand this, you understand that not switching is the only answer.

Anyone else here love probability threads? Exposes brainlets every time. The answer to the Monty Hall Problem is 2/3 if you switch and 1/3 if you don't. Program your own simulation and after 100 runs this truth will be evident. Here's another for you guys.

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It's not really a paradox. It's more an... unintuitive answer.

I don't know but I don't think that really applies here. We know the door choice for the new guy isn't 50 50 and if anyone leads him to believe it is they'd just be lying. What's the point of a hypothetical statistics problem where the setup is a lie?

>50brainlets trying to cope against the 66chads using some schizo retard logic
lmao

no

it's 50%

just like the monty hall problem

monty hall fags btfo

You are retarded and I could explain both problems to you but it would be a waste of effort on my part.

>50tards can't understand the existence of two different entities that share the same qualities

The Monty Hall problem is so compelling because it directly contradicts some innate biological intuition we have.

You can test it, you can run it, you can reveal to yourself that it's unequivocally scientifically 100% correct and yet you still *feel* in your gut that it's bullshit. It's actually a really odd sensation.

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How the fuck does this problem trip people up? The 2/3rds odds for switching make complete fucking sense, it's really simple.

>it's not 50%

>pull out 1 gold ball
>the silver ball box is not in play now
>it's either 2 gold box or the combo box and 1 gold ball is removed
>1 out the 2 options is gold
>1/2=0.50 aka 50%

shut up retard

I think "unintuitive answer" perfectly describes what it is, being that no-one here appears to understand it, but it is certainly true.

We call that feeling "stupidity."

I have never felt that the Monty Hall solution was bullshit though ever since it was explained to me that when you initially pick a door, there is a 66% combined percentage stacked against you. Having one door opened to reveal a goat doesn't make 33% of that go away, it transfers to the other door because the host was forced to reveal a goat door no matter what you picked. Therefore when you started, you either picked the only other goat door or you picked the car door. Which is more likely?

This. It's fucking braindead simple, why do retards get confused?

i thought i understood the monty hall problem until now, wtf

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I think because you're working with three sets of one door. Open goat door, chosen mystery door and idle mystery door. It's easy to somehow compartmentalize them as equivalent.

You can prove it by expanding the test to 100 doors. If you pick a door, then the host opens 98 goat doors, then asks you if you want to switch to the last unopened door, it becomes obvious you're gonna say yes.

>even when given explanations, simulations, and formal mathematical proofs, many people still do not accept that switching is the best strategy

>durr the two gold balls are the same thing

What about when you accept that switching is the best strategy but you still feel something down in your lizard brain going "fuck you that's wrong"

no matter how many doors there are its always 50% hes either there or he isnt

No retard. If you pulled a gold ball on your first try, how likely is it that you reached into the double gold box? Significantly more likely than reaching into the gold/silver box. If you pull out a gold ball, then like you said, the all-silver box is out of play. So what's left on the table in total? 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball. Your chances are 2/3.

VIDEO GAMES

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but what if I want the goat?

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fucking brainlets
how does this shit still fool people

This is some next level shitposting. I have to applaud you.

no it isnt

you are reaching into the same box
you have one ball in there
if it is the gold and silver box, then the ball is silver
if it is double gold, it's gold

you fucking dip shit this isnt the monty hall problem

It's easier to grasp when you add more doors into the equation.

you tell us user, you're the one who is failing at basic statistics

I like how majority of best pokemon memes are done before game comes out.

>people falling for the 50/50 bait
nobody is stupid enough to believe that

2/3rds right? cause you can ignore the box with no gold in it and that leaves 2 gold balls and 1 silver so 2 gold out of 3 total

are you actually retarded?

A good way to understand monty hall is if you scale it up.
At the end of the game, monty wants to leave you with a choice between 2 doors.

So imagine if there were 100 doors (with 1 car).
You pick a door.
Monty eliminates 98 doors by revealing the goat behind them
The initial probability that you chose the door with the car was 1/100
Now that monty eliminated every door except for the one you chose and another one (which hides the car if your initial choice was not the correct one), you must logically change doors.

The key here is that Monty always leaves out one door on top of the one you originally chose, and since your original probability of findong the car is low, the chance that the one monty left you to chose from is the one with the car.

That just means your brain is stronger than your instincts

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Goat doesn't change anything if you already chose a door and he was revealed.

The answer becomes obvious when you increase the amount of doors and goats. If there was 1,000,000 doors and you chose one and 999,998 doors opened to reveal goats, the smell would be awful. It would be foolish not to swap each time.

>It may seem that the probability that the remaining gold is 1/2, but in truth, the probability is actually 2/3.

>HURR IT MAKES SENSE IF YOU MAKE THE PROBLEM COMPLETELY DIFFERENT

It's 1/2 retard.

Because it don't make no damn sense
50/50

The physicality of the boxes does not matter. You pulled out a gold ball on your first try. That gives you a lot of information regarding the likelihood that your next ball will be gold because not only did you reach into a box with a gold ball (2/3 chance) you pulled out a gold ball before the silver ball which is something very unlikely to happen if you reached into the gold/silver box. Not only did you beat that 50% chance but the only thing left on the table is TWO GOLD BALLS and ONE SILVER BALL. Which box they're in doesn't matter, that's what's left to draw from. You cannot know which box you drew from with absolute certainty, you simply know it's more likely to be the gold/gold box. You have a 66% chance.

It is definitely easier to grasp if you scale it to 100, but nevertheless the three door version in particular causes a visceral, emotional, irrational reaction where even once you fully understand and completely recognize that it's true, some part of your psyche just refuses to accept it.

Neither?

There being two choices doesn't mean that the outcomes have an equal probability

Yes user, thank you. You're smarter than most in this thread

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Easiest way to understand it is
>If you pick the car, to win you need to stay
>If you pick a goat, to win you need to switch since the other goat gets revealed
>2/3 to pick goat first, so 2/3 win with switch
>1/3 pick car first, so 1/3 win with stay

It's more likely you picked a goat door. Before anything it decided or said, you have a 66% chance to randomly pick a goat door. The host is forced to open the only other goat door later, no matter what you picked. So despite going against common sense, you then have a 66% chance of winning the car if you switch your door after that reveal

I considered calling you an autists,but autists actually have the ability of understanding basic mathematics so I'll just call you nigger

then you stay

Easiest way to understand is to not be an absolute retard.

People who think it's 2/3 are the same retards who think portals work like B

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Thanks, I feel like the ball one is more intuitive than the monty hall one

More like retards who can't understand that these probability problems don't end with 50% are the same flatlined downies who think A is more likely.

Make the experiment at home.
>pick a random number from 1 to 3
(this is the door behind which the car will be)
>pick another random number from 1 to 3
(this is the door you initially chose)
Case 1 :
Don't switch doors, and calculate your winrate.
You'll see it quickly tends towards 33%
Case 2 :
Always switch doors, and do as before
You'll see it inevitably approaches 66%

Tired of fucking mongoloids.

Note that a site already allows you to do this, but niggers will callconspiracy when they see 50/50 is incorrect.
betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

Can I pick the door with the goat?

3 wins in a row and I'm 100% right

but it is 2/3

BUT
BUT
1 OF 2?

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Don't switch and you are more likely to get goat

>gambling
>listening to other people's advice on your bet
Fuck you niggers. Lady Luck is riding my chad cock.
I choose to open both doors and prove there was never a car. My good luck leaves me with ALL THREE goats. Beat that pythagoras wannabes.

I like your bait user, have a (you)

I know but I want to pick the door that I 100% know is a goat
don't want to take any risks

It was 1 of 3 with two of those being goats. New information doesn't change how the chances are stacked, it just clues you in on where you stand.

It isn't B because Valve outright said that the cube isn't imparted with momentum. The cube isn't moving as it appears on the other side of the portal.

>He believes in propoganda.

your site doesn't work cause I can just pick the door already with a goat and lower my win percentage to 50%

Ok now do it with 30 lol.

Then why not after the goat door is revealed switch to that door?

Valve also probably never cared to research the implications of portals. Imagine that scenario in your head, the platform is coming down pretty fast right? Yet the cube must be taken into the portal, inch by inch. It doesn't all come out of the other portal at once. It emerges from the other portal, inch by inch, at a speed relative to the portal coming down on the cube. Momentum IS imparted on it.

>monkey smells a book, is not impressed
do the experiment at home

more like 56% amirite

Oh no I agree that 66% is correct it's just some dumb fuck could purposely make it say 50% if they wanted to shitpost

Tried it myself and it's not 50/50 and I'm still calling bullshit.
It's just a coincidence I'm sure

The rules won't allow it.

Which game have the best asses?

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This question is impossible to answer because the pyisical properties of the portals are not defined well enough.

>pick a door
>picked the one with the goat

Always switch.

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>ITT retards who've never taken a discrete math or basic statistics course in their entire lives.

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momentum of what? the portal is just a hole. how can an empty void have momentum?

Increase the doors to be 1000 fucking doors with 999 goats and 1 car, you're most likely not going to pick the door with the car behind it the first choice you make and that isn't going to change just because he opened the rest of the doors after the choice

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Says who? Go to link and click on a goat door

DO IT YOURSELF NIGGER
DO IT 1000000000 TIMES
0.66 IF YOU SWITCH
0.33 IF YOU DON'T
NIGGER NIGGER AAAH WHY ARE YOU SO STUPID, ITS FUCKING SIMPLE

YOUR INITIAL PROBABILITY DOESN'T CHANGE WHEN MONTY OPENS THE DOOR
YOUR ORIGINAL DOOR DOESN'T GO FROM 1/3 CHANCE TO 1/2, IT'S STILL 1/3

NIGGER, BRAINLET, SMOOTHBRAIN, RETARD


YOU HAVE THE FUCKING EVIDENCE IN FRONT OF YOUR FUCKING EYES

It is demonstrably not a hole. In the very image you can see that the cube has moved. It had to fall out of the blue portal. Whether it plopped out or shot out, you cannot deny that portals are more than holes. Objects do not just move through them, they transport objects. Do not start this hula hoop shit with me.

This, it's a simple thing to understand. There are only 3 possible scenarios to be in. In 2/3 scenarios switching is better. in 1/3 scenarios staying is better. You have zero information available to you on what scenario you're in, so just staying to the more probable scenario's move is better.
There is nothing else to it.

What the fuck is switching your choice? It's just a new choice.
A goat is revealed and thus one of the 3 possible variations is now eliminated. Now you are a playing a game of pick door 1 or 2, I picked one earlier so I'll just pick that one again since it's 50/50

I did do it myself and its 66%
but that's just a coincidence

>A goat is revealed and thus one of the 3 possible variations is now eliminated.
This is where you fucked up. New information does not eliminate the original chance. Try again

This question makes no sense because the cube is inscribed in two different manners in the same reality.
Another victory for physics.

>when you realize reselecting the same door is functionally identical to switching doors as they are both 50% choices compared to your first 33% choice

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The "always switch" is always correct because the chance gets skewed. The Player is not alone in the decision making. The Host knows which door holds the reward, so the Host's choice is weighted towards revealing a losing door. The Host knows which door is the winner, and actively avoids it.
The door the host does not pick becomes far more valuable and far more likely to be the winning door assuming the player did not choose correctly the first time. The player is not making the same choice twice, the two remaining doors have had their values altered by the Host's knowledge of which door to open.

youtube.com/watch?v=RYzQvj3icjs

DELETE THIS POST YOU BRAINLET AFAG AND ADMIT WHAT'S RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOU

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you literally aren't making sense.
it's a 50/50 chance
it doesn't matter what is on the table, it matters what is in you box, which then is a 50/50

here's an image i made to explain it better

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You're twice as likely to pick a goat at the start since there's two of them compares to only one car. The host then reveals the second goat. The other door probably has the car.

LIKE A HULA HULA HOOP

>/sci/ raid

nice

>In the very image you can see that the cube has moved
it moved in A because of gravity affecting it once it went through
>portals are more than holes. Objects do not just move through them
did we play different games

>it doesn't matter what is on the table, it matters what is in you box
You're wrong by virtue of the fact that this information is unknowable. Probability is only based on the likelihood of a scenario, and all you can know is what you have on the table. Your argument and image are therefore meaningless.

Not him but it is a strange mathematical phenomenon. In practice it doesn't seem to work the way it logically should. Should probably look up some studies about it, you'll end up sounding like a moron to a big brain some day.

>Switching increases your odds of landing on the winning door, because the odds were you picked the wrong door in the first place.
This is theoretical only.

Choice 1: 1/3 odds of correct choice
Choice 2: 1/2 odds of correct choice
Choice 2a: Left door 1/2
Choice 2b: Right door 1/2

On choice 2, you are presented with choosing now either left door or right door in the Monty Hall problem. Staying with the same door is making a second choice and thus has the odds stats of choice 2.

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>You're twice as likely to pick a goat at the start
I think this did it, something clicked in my head

The silver-only box is a red herring. You are explicitly told that the first ball drawn is a gold one. It literally can't be the box that only has silvers.

the only information available to you is that the 2 silver balls are not in play

>he doesn't believe in basic demonstrable statistics

>it moved in A because of gravity affecting it once it went through
So if you put the cube halfway through will it shift to one side due to the gravity? If you say yes, you have to admit that portals can move objects simply based on the laws of physics working around them. And then you must admit that a fast-moving portal will cause an object to emerge from the other portal fast, which is motion. They are transport devices.

i already said that
1 gold ball OR 1 silver ball is in your box
therefor it is 50/50

That's extremely significant information, brainlet. It doesn't mean that the two silver balls are meaningless, that box existing affects your initial chances of pulling a gold ball and your initial chances are all that matter. That's what I'm telling you, what happens first affects what happens next in probability.

this doesnt take account into the second pick, this just proposes the boxes in the form of monty hall

you need to account for the second draw/guess

>999,998 doors opened to reveal goats, the smell would be awful.
thanks user i laughed pretty hard

I already accounted for it, retard
i never said they're meaningless, they affect the statistics mathematically drawing a 50/50

>monty hall
This has nothing to do with Monty Hall brainlet, this is just being able to tell that different objects exist and basic probability

>brainlet

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You drew a gold ball first. You don't have the same chance of drawing a gold ball when there is also a silver ball compared to when both available balls are gold. Twice as likely to pick gold first when there's twice as much gold.

my lust for goats is UNFATHOMABLE

holy fuck dude. If you reach into a box and pull out a gold ball it is MORE LIKELY that you just pulled from the gold/gold box than the mixed box. What's hard about this?

exactly, you have a 50/50 chance of what you draw out of the SAME box

either you picked 2 gold or combo box and removed 1 gold
that leaves either 1 gold or 1 silver within your box.
learn to count brainlet
the 3rd gold ball matters as much as the double silver

Post yfw you will never be this stupid

it's like a toddler got on 4channel

Why don’t you take a real math course staticianigger?

The cube isn't going anywhere. It's not going "into" anything. Portals are just holes in space. It's more like dropping a hoola hoop over something.

here you go
this is how i feel, knowing i'll never be as stupid as you

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You're trolling now. Jesus. Imagine the portal scenario in slow motion. It physically has to "emerge" from the blue portal, that implies motion. I can't handle this thread anymore

There are three gold balls you could have picked.
They all have the same chance of being picked aka 1/3.
Two of them are in box 1 aka 1/3 + 1/3 or 2/3
You fucking idiot

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if you're going to troll someone you have to make it comprehensible
no one's going to strut in and lord it over you if they can't even tell what the fuck you're trying to say
what a shameful waste of presumably good bait

>i'm gonna flip it
That's the thing though, what's inside the doors doesn't change after the host reveals one of the doors.

The output should be 50%. Did I program my simulation wrong??

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