All of you are retards (except a few that agree with me)

You're an idiot. HH is removed due to the clause of a guaranteed crit. Its not part of the formula. It is one in three. Educate yourself on mathematical probabilities.

Except no, the ones where you don't crit on the first hit are removed from the set of possible actions because you can't crit and not crit at the same time
That leaves two possible choices, of which only one can actually happen therefore 2/1=0.50

if you say anything other than 50% you are a retard

The chance is 1/3
It's either True True, False True or True False

HH is not a possible outcome in the scenario laid out

One of the CHs are actually a HC dumb

>CH
>HC
>CH
>HC
>HC
>CH
These are the same thing retard

t.brainlet

if you really think about it its 15%

1/3
/thread
*hides thread*

Not from a mathematical standpoint. Go flip burgers with your high school education and let the adults talk math.

in terms of the question they are you fuck head

Wrong, american brainlet.

Its not asking for the fucking order you dropkick

what about FF?

This problem has been asked many times before. The chance changes based on the order of the first crit. It's not as simple as listing the three options and saying the chance is 1/3.

He's right though. Which hit is the one that crits is unknown, therefore they are not exempt variables. The only variable exempt is the one where neither hit. Order is a fundamental aspect of math and you are unintelligent.

I'm with you.
People who say 50% assume you're guaranteed a crit even if you crit the first time, making it a 50% chance.

it is 1/3 tho

The sheer fact that you cannot grasp the basic idea that the order in which it happens is part of the formula to define the answer is astounding.

You are truly a brainlet among brainlets.

It's negligible because one is already a crit no matter what, so it's 50% ,if you can't understand that YIKES CUNT

It is one in three though, because of the fact that no crit order was specified.

It can't be determined because the order isn't defined.

Oh look, the fool fancies himself intelligent.

haha ok buddy i know im gettin played :)

There's no such thing as negligible variables in math.

The people who are saying anything but 1/3 are fucking stupid and beyond salvation, and probably American.

The hits have no memory. It doesn't know if the previous hit was crit or not.
Each individual hit as a 50% crit rate. No matter what the previous hit was.
So its 50%

>LOL XD EITHER YOU HIT IT OR YOU DONT

Americunts are fucking retarded, of course they'll say 50/50.

That doesn't make the fact that the answer isn't 50%

The hits have no memory

its 1/3 you bronzes.

the possibilities are
Crit Crit
NoCrit Crit
Crit NoCrit
NoCrit NoCrit

Since we assume at least one is a crit it removes the NoCrit NoCrit possibility. No this is left:
Crit Crit
NoCrit Crit
Crit NoCrit

the chance is 1 out of 3 which is 33%. Get some math classes kids.

Yep and if you have 100 hits with a 50% crit chance and 99 of them crit you only have a 0.5% chance to crit the next hit. That and you are clearly an RNG god.
Simple math you fucktards

equiseq.com/learn_probability.php

Attached: 1445965545569.jpg (1209x706, 138K)

Re-read the problem

>2 hits
>one is crit
>what is chance both are crit
>50% crit chance
>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Women are retarded and generally uneducated, so this image is bait

>flip a coin
>lands on heads
>'the next time I flip this coin, it has a 33% chance of being a heads'
Imagine actually believing this

Attached: upload_2018-10-24_12-43-18.png (511x459, 85K)

Think of it like this:
Since one is guarranteed, that means the actual crit chance is 100% for that hit only.
2 possible times the guarranteed crit happens: C* or *C
there is a 50% chance the * is a C as well in both cases
therefore 50% both hits are crits

>hit an enemy twice
2 hits
>one guaranteed crit
1 hit will always be a critical
>the last hit now has two possibilities which can logically nullify or validate the problem, each having an equal chance of happening, but only one fulfilling the criteria of "both hits being a crit"
1/2 critchance•1/2noncritchance=.25critchance
>factor in both the given crit and the odds of the scenario which validates the statement happening
1/2crit•1/4critchance=12.5%

I'm probably wrong

Attached: 1531594173215.jpg (446x1000, 186K)

we just had this thread a few hours ago.

The logic is not certain.
>You hit an enemy twice with a crit chance of 50%
That means our ideal output is 1 hit and 1 crit.
>At least one of the hits is a crit.
If our output is ideal then this will be true and the logic is fulfilled.
In this case, the probability that both hits are crits is 25%. via .5*.5

>You hit an enemy twice. At least one is a guaranteed crit
Our output is then 1 crit and 1 uncertain.
>Your crit chance is 50%
If we treat the guaranteed crit as an independent required proc - not a natural roll and therefore does not affect our law of averages - the chance of the uncertain hit being a crit is the same as our base chance -- 50%.

This, only the outcome of one attack is in question, not 2.
Fuck all of you pseuds.

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Attached: cointoss_Punnet.jpg (850x850, 407K)

100%

Attached: Engineertaunt1.png (516x681, 230K)

50% because only 1 of the crits has a chance not to hit

Imagine failing highschool math...

no. it doesn't specify if the first or the second hit is the guaranteed crit

if the first one misses, the second is a guaranteed crit in ALL circumstances

if the first one crits, it odes so on a coin flip, and the second one skill flips the coin to see if it crits too

so you have only three situations
miss>crit
crit>miss
crit>crit

the probability is 1/3

It's obviously 50%. The first crit is guaranteed and the order doesn't matter. The remaining H has a 50% chance to be a HH or HC/CH. If the order was important then the answer would change.

The problem does not state “the first hit is a crit”. The problem states “at least one of the hits is a crit”. Therefore the second hit could be a crit.

If you don’t believe this, go pick a vidya and do an experiment. Equip a weapon with 50%CC and attack twice. Write down whether each hit was a crit or not, as a pair. Do this 500 times. Then go through and remove every instance where beither attack was a CC.

Now you have your data set for “at least one hit was a crit”. Count how many total pairs remain. Now, count how many of the remaining pairs are double crit. Basic division will reveal it’s about 1/3rd of the total.

t. high school dropout

I meant CC not HH

50%

Idiot, you didn't factor in the 50% chance of crit

50% since one of them is already a crit, how is this even a question.

This is the only correct answer and I can prove it by example.
If I flip a coin 3 times, what are the odds of me getting heads? The outcomes are HHH TTT / HTH THT / HHT TTH. Since the order of the flips can be organized into six different inversely proportional permutations, then the answer is 1/3 or in other words, the same odds as OP’s question.

Based reading comprehension you highschool dropout

So why isn't the order important? Its less about order and more about probability isn't it?

You can't even read: who the fuck said the first?

I think 1/3 makes sense
True True
False True
True False

Oh, and the name for this problem is the Boy or Girl paradox. There is no definitive answer.

I have no idea how Yea Forums people who deal with games with mathematical precision is so bad at actual mathematics, it's 50% chance

There is a GUARANTEE hit of a crit and THE ORDER DOESN'T MATTER since it's just asking you what are the chances of both hits doing critical damage so we are basically left with A SINGLE ATTACK that we have to account for.

THAT ATTACK is the one we have to take into account, we can ignore the other one because as it was established that the other one is a GUARANTEE HIT and again THE ORDER OF THE CRIT DOESN'T MATTER since it ain't asking you that, just if the 2 hits are crits

Project harder negro

Morons who say 50% have never taken a single probability class.

Attached: 33% chance.png (1440x890, 79K)

Wait was I right but in a retarded way?

The scenario is a 50% crit rate for one hit. not whether it will miss. But its stating that there is a 50% crit hit for a hit.
You are over-reading into it.

Depends on if you interpret the question as P(Both Crits|One of the two this will crit) or P(Both Crits|The first hit has happened and it crits). The former is 1/3, the latter is 1/2.

But muh order doesn't matter.

The first hit has a 50% chance of critting or not critting, if it doesnt crit the next hit will always hit so non crit than crit has a 50% chance of happening . if it does crit the next hit either crits or doesnt since its still 50% chance. Which means 25% chance for either those options not 33% for all of the options like some of you fucktards think.

Noncrit crit = 50%
Crit crit=25%
Crit noncrit=25%

P(2 H)/P(At least 1 H)
= (1/4)/(3/4)
=1/3

Do you want to show the world how stupid you are?

What are some games with elder god-tier crit mechanics/critical hits.

Attached: 1545712995049.jpg (960x951, 57K)

Crit>No Crit
No Crit>Crit
Crit>Crit

I don't understand how you can think it's anything but 1/3

The order isn't important because a HC and CH are functionally identical according to the question. We are only interested in finding CC. If we were asked to find HC specifically then it would be a third.

>All this people defending 1/3 without taking into account the 50% crit chance.
>OP actually defending 1/4
Holy shit, shameful

>crit mechanics
Warframe

Its already in the possibility. Keep drinking your dumbfuck juice.

miss crit
hit crit
Crit crit

1/3

so what's the correct answer and can you please explain why?

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox
Everyone read this and then shut the fuck up. I didn't think it was possible for people to be dumber than when arguing about the Monty Hall problem but I was wrong

The answer is 1/3. While you can technically arrive at 1/4, it relies on an assumption and also ends up contradicting the information provided in the question.

There are two ways to interpret the situation. One is to analyze it before it happens, and the other to analyze it after it has happened. The former works like this: 1) Hit once 2a) if it's a crit, roll 50/50 on the next attack, 2b) if it's a hit, the next attack is a guaranteed crit. This results in 1/4. However, you're making an additional assumption here, that is not stated in the question, that there is such a thing as a guaranteed crit after a hit. "At least one of the hits is a crit" doesn't mean that there should be a guaranteed crit after a hit. If it read "will be a crit" instead, then you could assume that. Secondly, by assuming a guaranteed crit after a hit, your overall crit chance is no longer 50%, but higher. This is in direct contradiction with the question that assumes a 50% crit chance (or alternatively, you're adding another assumption that didn't exist in the question).

On the other hand, you can analyze the situation after a CC, CH, HC and HH have occurred. Because the question only wants you to take into account cases where there is at least one crit, you are left with CC, CH and HC, leaving you with a 1/3 chance. This requires no additional assumptions to the question, nor is there a contradiction anywhere.

The 1/2 answer simply doesn't make a distinction between HC and CH, so that's obviously wrong.

So if you want an answer that is logically sound, pick 1/3. If you want an answer with a bunch of issues, pick 1/4.

Attached: 1539968015763.jpg (596x691, 35K)

First hit is a crit so it doesnt matter. So all we have to know is the chance of 2nd hit being crit. Which is 50%

It is 1/3
The question is a conditional probability - it is asking given that one of the hits is a crit, what are the chances that both hits are crits.
So you take the chance of 2 crits and divide it by the chance of at least one crit

Not to a game it isn't important. If you crit someone first before hitting them its more lethal then vice versa.

>Crit has a 50% chance while Hit/miss Guess they never miss, huh? has to split a 50% probability.
Dumb pseud.

One of the hits is a crit, so it doesn't matter whether it's the first or the second hit that crits.
If the first hit crits, it's a 50% chance to crit on the 2nd.
If the first hit doesn't crit, then the next hit is a 100% crit.

Idk why I'm bothering to go through this for you artards but here I go.

The easiest way to think about these probability questions is in terms of alternate timelines.
A hit has a 50% crit chance, that means that when you hit, two equally likely timelines are created, one in which the hit is a crit, the other it is not.

If you hit twice, that means there are 4 resulting equally likely timelines (look up probability tree if you struggle with this conclusion).

In 1 of these timelines, no crits are landed. In 2 of them one crit is landed and in one of them two crits are landed.

BUT, the problem states that at least one crit is made, so one of these timelines is impossible (the one where no crits are landed).

That leaves us with three equally likely timelines, only one of which contains 2 crits.
1 / 3
Now never post this downs ridden bait again.

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>HC and CH are functionally identical
That’s true, however there’s twice the odds of them happening versus CC.

The reason this question is tricky is the way information is excluded. When attacking twice with a 50% Crit weapon, the odds of BOTH hits being a crit is 1/4 because the odds of ANY unique sequence of hits (CC, HH, CH, HC) is 1/4.

The question simply removes one of these sequences (HH) from consideration by saying “at least one hit is a crit”. That leaves 3 remaining possibilities, of which the odds of getting any specific outcome (CC) is 1/3.

If the question stipulated “the FIRST hit was a crit”, or “the SECOND hit was a crit”, then you’d be right that it was a simple 50% roll. It’s the time-ignorance of the question that fucks things up.

does monty hall apply to this though, since the OP dillema isn't "revealed information"? instead, the determinant is the primary flip, heads or tails, and that is guaranteed to be 50%

I'm 70% sure it's 1/3. I am a little drunk though. OP is trolling everyone here that isn't a math major on multiple levels. he's trolling retards, obviously. but I feel like he's altered the conditions of a very common problem, and I'm too drunk to actually solve it

GODDAMN IT I DIDNT PLAY VIDEO GAMES TO DO MATH FUCK

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there is no case in which non of both crit you stupid. thats why its 33%

>people give sound explanations
>HEY GUYS READ THIS MOBILE WIKI AND SHUT UP. YOU ALL ARE STUPID
>it's the same shit spouted in this thread

yup. you make a convincing argument, retard.

>he doesnt calculate crit chance of every single attack on the fly
Yikes

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There are three possible scenarios
hit then crit
crit then hit
crit then crit

the fourth possibility(hit then hit) is ruled out since at least one hit has to be a crit, and the first two are NOT identical scenarios, since scenario 1 has the second hit at 100% crit, while scenario two only has a 50% chance for the crit

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thats why its noncrit crit = 66%
crit crit = 33%
why is it that hard for you retards to get?

Just re-read the scenario and don't overcomplicate.
He's asking what the crit hit probability is, which he states is 50%.
That is all. Don't overcomplicate.

Hit or crit
I guess you never crit huh?

With no guaranteed crit there are 4 outcomes.
00
01
10
11
All that adding the guaranteed crit does is turn 00 into 01. We only care about 11, so that isn't relevant, and the chance is 25%.
01
01
10
11

fpbp

is this bait

>all these mathlets ITT completely ignoring the implied miss change

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Your crit chance is 50%. It either crits or it doesn't

Interesting,
That's definitely how a game would implement mandatory crit per x strikes

What's the answer?

OP is right

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Fine
Hit/crit
Crit/hit
Miss/crit
Crit/miss
Crit/crit
Crit/crit

Look at a scientific calculator. See those nCr and nPr buttons? You're getting hung up on the difference between those.
>nCr (combination)
The number of different, unordered combinations of r objects from a set of n objects.
>nPr (permutation)
The number of possibilities for choosing an ordered set of r objects (a permutation) from a total of n objects.

If you're arguing that there are three possibilities, you're saying it's an nPr problem - that the order of the hits is significant. But since the problem is just asking whether both are crits instead of "Was hit A a crit, followed by hit B being a crit?", it's an nCr problem and the 100% guaranteed crit becomes completely irrelevant if it's before or after the risky hit. The only thing that matters is the 50% risk of a crit on the remaining hit.

The first sentence is “you hit an enemy twice”.

No misses.

The answer is 1/3, period. No debate. No math to disprove it.

1/3

Since we know that there is at least 1 crit 100% of the time we know that if a H comes first, then it's a 100% chance that a C will come next. If a C comes first then there is a 50% chance that the second hit will be a C again because we assume our guaranteed hit has been used up.

If you're unironically interested in the difference between permutations and combinations:
mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html

Op BTFO

I GUESS THEY NEVER MISS HUH

Attached: HUH.jpg (430x464, 24K)

Sure, that also makes sense, but it’s (a) not what the question actually implies, and (b) if we’re using “guaranteed second-crit” mechanics, the odds of both attacks being crit is 25%.

Belle is better

>does monty hall apply to this though, since the OP dillema isn't "revealed information"? instead, the determinant is the primary flip, heads or tails, and that is guaranteed to be 50%
I was making a joke, user. My math doesn’t make any sense. This is not like the Monty Hall problem as that question has no ambiguity, just a really not obvious answer. In all seriousness this question is considered to be a paradox, but in actuality is not. The answer is 50% like anyone would naturally reason, due to one of the four possibilities being impossible and the other being redundant probability-wise with itself. The only people answering this question as 1/3 is due to them either trolling or viewing this question as conditional. In reality, we don’t really care if you say crit hit or hit crit because these are the same outcome odds-wise. Sorry to spoil the fun.

It’s experimentally verifiable that the answer is 1/3rd dummy. Try it out for yourself.

you counted both cringing twice

*criting

You're right. I didn't take the phrasing into consideration. If it was asking the probability of the first shot critting+the second shot non-critting or the first shot non-critting and the second shot critting, then it would be 50%, right?

The chance is 1/3 like the gold ball problem.

>gold ball
>double sided coin
>Monty Hall
you fuckers trip me up with this shit every time

This one is easy cause 50/50 makes it simple.

Possibilities are:
Hit Hit
Hit Crit
Crit Hit
Crit Crit

With all equal chances because of 50/50. Since the puzzle says that hit hit is removed, then it's 1 in 3

It can only be 1/3 if we’re in common core land, otherwise my outcomes are crit hit or crit crit. The question does not ask me for the order of my crits and hits.

Thank me later retards
youtu.be/MDzbD2Ay5b4

It doesn't specify which hit is a crit you fucking illiterate retard.

HIT + MISS AND MISS + HIT ARE THE SAME THING YOU FUCKING RETARDS IT DOESN'T MATTER WHICH CRITS, ONLY THE OTHER ATTACK WHO'S ORDER IS ARBITRARY AS ONE IS GUARANTEED ARBITRARILY

>my outcomes are crit hit or crit crit
or hit crit

Try it yourself. Seriously, go find a coin, a pen and a tablet of paper and run 1,000 iterations. The answer is 1/3rd whether it makes sense to you or not.

So the answer is, in fact, 1/3. Thank you for the proof.

Miss is irrelevant, just like you.

If you weren't guaranteed a critical it would be a 25% but because you're guaranteed a critical it's 50%

If crit hit and hit crit are the same outcome, with regards to the OP asking what my chance of a second crit is, does it matter which hit is a crit? The answer is no and will always be no. You can lay out the 3 scenarios over and over, but hit crit and crit hit will always be the same outcome when asking about the probability of which being more likely.

cringe incomprehensible poster

They’re functionally identical, but the fact that there are two ways for them to appear means the odds of them occurring are twice as high.

Treating functionally identical outcomes as statistically identical is retarded. By that logic, I have a 50% chance of being mauled to death by a grizzly bear since, when I leave my house, only one of two things can happen: “I get mauled by a grizzly bear” and “I don’t get mauled by a grizzly bear”.

If you are hitting it twice and one of the hits is guaranteed to be a critical all that is left is the single hit that has 50% chance. So you have 50% of both hits being a critical.

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Turbobrainlet

people who can't understand that the order is irrelevant are legitimately sub-100 IQ
not even trying to just insult them, it's legitimately a demonstration of an inability to think abstractly enough

Wrong. Watch

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
Cope more faggot

it's 50% because of how probability works.

you get a 50% chance that _every_ hit will be a crit, which means that each hit you take has a 50% chance to be a crit INDEPENDENT of other hits

Yeah, user, about that...the order does matter in this case.

that's what I thought but is right I think

t. janitor

That’s not the same question as OP, but nice try.

But the guaranteed crit changes position, so they aren't the actually the same case

Order of crits isn't specified.
There's a 50% chance you roll a H first, and you are 100% going to get a C next but you've failed because you need 2 crits.
There's a 50% chance you roll a C and you can move onto stage 2. There is a second roll where there is a 50% chance to get a H or C because your guaranteed crit is used up already.
The guaranteed crit isn't helpful at all because it's only relevant if you've got a H on your first roll and you fail anyway.
Chance of getting CC is 2 50% rolls so 25%.
Chance of getting CH is also 25%.
Chance of getting HC is 50% because on the first roll you have a 50% chance of getting a H.

Hello American, how is retardation treating you today? Huh? C'mon, speak boy

Sorry but considering hit miss and miss you ss hit as two different situations is wrong is this scenario since it doesn't matter the order of the hits.

I know this all a joke but this kind of shit just ignites my autism. Have more vamp mommy.

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>DURR DUH GOLD BALLS ARE SAME
>DURR DUH TWO SCENARIOS ARE SAME
Cope

in all possible probability problems, there are two scenarios: either an event happens, or it doesn't. therefore the answer is always 50% and the details of the question are irrelevant.

uh oh looks like I struck a nerve lol

Flip a coin. There you go.

Nice try, but you're still wrong and someone smarter than you illustrated why. Must suck being stupid huh

>it has been proven that it's 1/3
>brainlets still coping by pretending order doesnt matter
OH NO NO NO

Nah, you're the one that's mad. I'd be mad too if I were a virginal, angsty americunt. The most retarded country on earth

Die in a ditch, fatty

>be retarded
>post Yea Forumsshit
What a coincidence.

It's 50%. You're guaranteed one crit. The crit chance is 50%.

If G is the guaranteed crit, there are only two options. If the crit chance is determined by a number rolled between 0-49(no crit(we will call this N)) and 50-100(crit (we will call this C))

G into N
G into C
N into G
C into G

since G into N and N into G are functionally the same, they cancel each other out. G into C and C into G also cancel each other out. There for there are two outcomes. One where you get two crits, and one where there is only one. You CANNOT refute this

Thinking about it, it makes sense for you to be right.
If you add the guaranteed crit as an option, the chart is as follows: GC: Guaranteed Crit, C: Crit, H: hit
GC | H
GC | C
H | GC
C | GC
divided by the possible ways to order: 2! = 2
=> 50% chance to get 2 crits in any order

>mathematicians say it's 1/3 and that order actually matters
AHHH DELET THIS ITS NOT FAIR ME SMART

two different outcomes... not comparable

But they aren’t the same. OP didn’t give me three scenarios where I randomly select the outcome of hit hit, crit crit, and hit crit, and then asked me my odds of getting a second crit after getting a first crit from those three scenarios. Do you see how the gold coins question doesn’t ever present the option of gold coin silver coin and silver coin gold coin?

I don’t think that’s a real distinction

hahaha look at him go!

>i-it's not the same
:^)

Its deflection of fact and of being in the wrong. Pretty standard Yea Forums stuff, since everbody here thinks they're the smartest person of the bunch. Its always fun watching a gaggle of retards with hyperinflated egos argue, knowing that their shallow hubris will crumble at the slightest push.

1/3, baby. 1/3. If you said otherwise, you're about as stupid as they come, since the answer is extremely obvious.

Bayes rule ignoring the intuition behind the answer:
A = both hits are crits
B = one hit is a crit
P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B)
= (1*.25)/.5 = .5

>mathematicians say it's 1/3 and that order does matter
Yeah your post's going into the cope compilation

If you had to flip to determine if the first hit crits or not, then in neither case are you treating that as the guaranteed crit.

You have to make normal crit and guaranteed crit be two separate variables.

Your actual possible outcomes are
GH
GC
HG
CG

Stay mad, stay free, stay unintelligent.

Oh, and stay single. Not that it'll be difficult for you to achieve that.

fortunate you were able to rely on somebody else to think for you!

It's 50% since crit chance is 50% and you're guaranteed one crit at least. If you hit then you're not getting two crits

>B-B-B-BUT ORDER DOESN'T MAAAATTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEER!

Order always matters unless explicitly stated otherwise. Its like you fuckers never went to college,

Oh wait.

man I haven't seen a little bugger riled up this hard in a long time! they make you pay for the broken broom handle janny?

Retarded brainlets, that theres 3 outcomes doesnt mean they have the same chance of happening.

Dumbass, you have to account for two different CCs because there are two different hits (the first and the second) that could be the given crit(the one in the op image that is already stated to be a crit). It’s 50%

1/3.
There are only 3 possible outcomes, HC CH and CC.

It's really not that complicated.

Oh who am I kidding? I’m a brainlet. I just wanted to sound smart so that you guys wouldn’t think my math was wrong. Maybe it was my way of trying to make the world a bit simpler. Forgive me, user. I love Big Brother.

>h-heh your answer is supported by facts and logic that means ur the dummy not me
Cope more faggot

Nope and its been proven multiple times already as to why I am right and you are w-r-o-n-g.

The answer isn't very difficult. Stay salty.

Well one is apparently guaranteed, so then its 50/50 on the other.
I ain’t even reading all that because there’s no way you used that many words to just say that.

Theoretically it’s 1/3, but practically it’s 1/2.

it doesn't though because the order doesn't affect the outcome, they're independent events

Why are you so upset that you got outsmarted? Answer the question.

Just google the coin game of two-up if you want a real world analogue of this puzzle. It's where you flip 2 coins and bet on it coming up as 2xHeads, 2xTails or 1 of each. This is a perfect example of this puzzle.

The odds of getting a double tails are 1 in 4, the odds of double heads are 1 in 4 and the odds of mixed are 2 in 4. Just say 2x heads is a double crit and 2x tails is a double hit. Take the double hit away and you have 1 in 3 chance of double crit and 2 in 3 chance of one hit and one miss

>if you know basic math you support authoritarianism
so this is the damage control of 1/2fags

>Dumbass, you have to account for two different CCs

I...err...that might be the most retarded thing I've read this entire thread. Wow. Congratulations. You cannot into basic math.

it’s tricky, but not complicated

There are two universes, one where the second hit is guaranteed and one where the first hit is. In both universes the crit chance on the non guaranteed hit is 50%. Therefor the probability of both hits being crits is determined by the innate crit chance-50%.

He’s asking what the probability is that both crits hit. We know the first one always lands so that leaves room for only 1 crit to observe. We know this 1 uncertain crit hits 50% of the time and since the first 1 is always guaranteed that means the second hit is the decider. 50% chance both hit

Attached: 7684E221-77AE-4E06-A1D8-AA5C6981EA42.jpg (960x1440, 217K)

use Bayes rule niggers and try to argue it's still 1/3

t. statistician

3 outcomes doesn't mean 3 equal chances

>We know the first one always lands
It doesn't state that, reread it.

Crit or miss?
I guess they never miss, huh?

But the question says "at least one of the hits is a crit". It doesn't say that it was always a guaranteed 100% chance and it only is relevant for it to be 100% chance if the first roll isn't a crit.
You can't have a guarenteed crit after a regular crit because you already fulfilled the requirements of a crit with the first roll. Your other outcomes of GH, GC and HG are 25,25,50% likely.

>Monty hall problem
>Bertrand box problem
>this problem
I-ITS NOT FAIR BROS THAT FACTS, LOGIC, MATH, PROBABILITY, SCIENCE AND THE UNIVERSE ALL SUPPORT 2/3, 2/3 AND 1/3

The first one or second one always lands. Either way the other is the decider cuck

Holy shit you 50% retards just flip 2 coins a few times and have a look what happens. In 50% retard world 2 heads, 2 tails and one of each all happen in equal amounts. Just. Fucking. Test.

Nice falseflag, since you don't even understand the theory that you cited.

FUCK I hate stupid people

The reasoning is mathematically sound if order changed the crit chance of OP’s question, but it can’t. Order is hugely important for the gold coins question though, due to the fact that we ignore the scenario where we draw a silver coin from the gold silver bag. This increases our odds of drawing two gold coins since we are only considering the odds of our drawing the second coin AFTER the first coin. See, user? Please see. I’m losing my mind over here.

You kind of do though.
ONE of your attacks in a guaranteed crit, but the question does not specify which one.
If you flip for attack one, it doesn't matter if it comes up crit or normal hit, you did not treat that as the guaranteed crit because you flipped for it.
So you still have to account for the scenario where the first hit IS the guaranteed crit and you're flipping for the 2nd hit instead.

Once again the possibilities are:
Hit, Guaranteed
Crit, Guaranteed
Guaranteed, Hit
Guarenteed, Crit

The probability of one crit is 50%. The probability of the other crit is 100%. There is only one hit left up to chance, so the probability of getting that to crit is 50%

Nah, and I can't even write out why you're wrong since your formula is flawed at a fundamental level and can't be converted into an equation.

Two tails can't happen.

But you don't know which one it is.
Watch this

Close, but incorrect.
Your P(B) should be AT LEAST one crit as per the question. (HH CH HC CC) As three out of those four outcomes has at least one crit, this gives us P(B) = .75.

2.5/.75 = 1/3, as it should be.

t. math major.
At least you tried harder than some of these other brainlets.

>like um... wow.. like... seriously
You’re the fag who thinks a 1/2 chance becomes a 1/3 chance because another 1/2 chance has a determined outcome, you have to account for the fact that one of the critical hits is the guaranteed one, they aren’t the same just “durr hurr they’re the same letters”. The actual distribution is as follows
CCg
CgC
CgH
HCg
With the lower case g coming after the critical that is the guaranteed critical (as it isn’t made explicit which one is the guaranteed critical, the first or second hit)

The true answer isn't 1/4, 1/3 or 1/2. The true answer is that there is insufficient data for a meaningful response

You're ignoring the variable of order, simpleton.

I give up, let's try this shit again when the Amerilards and BRs go to bed.

Which is why it matters, it gives 3 outcomes instead of two.

Attached: 1540944953463.gif (487x560, 898K)

where did the idea that a crit and a guaranteed crit being two different things come from?

Rather, .25/ .75 = 1/3. Not 2.5.

But you get the point.

Okay I’ll bite the bait. Let’s use the coin theory if you want. This puzzle is saying that there’s a 50% chance you crit(heads side of a coin) but 1 crit(heads side of a coin) is always guaranteed. I just flipped the stupid coin you’re always bitching about and never got my guaranteed crit(heads side of the coin) In fact I only got 2 tails so why didn’t I get my guaranteed crit like your promised me? That’s right because your mom is a cum guzzling whore and she is also worthless too.

Just ignore double tails then. Do it 20 times, ignoring TT and write down how many HH and HTs you get. It's the easiest way to wrap your head around it in a real world experiment

I've already been proven right in that it's 1/3 chance. Sources are in the thread, whereas none exist that support any other.

You. Are. Fucking. Stupid.

It is here because all outcomes have the same probability of happening. It's like tossing a coin, it's 50% for each, it's not "70% heads, 30% tails". Therefore the outcomes can be simplified like this.

When you account for order, it's STILL 50%

Two of your three outcomes are identical when determining probability.

Please explain. I just flip a coin and never got my guaranteed crit. Weird.

do Americans not get taught basic probability in high school?

That's not analogous at all

Citing yourself isn't a source, mongrel. Video and written sources have already been provided. Good day, libtard!

fug that's right, at least one is the right event to condition on. it doesn't matter because I think even my B event should've included the case of both. whoops

Because they are?
one you have to flip for and the other you don't

Apparently not, since I'm pretty damn sure everyone that's saying 50% is Amerilard.

Order has nothing to do with it since there are 5 outcomes. Cg is the guaranteed hit.

CCg
CgC
CgH
HCg
HH

HH is removed since one of the hits is a guaranteed hit.

CCg and CgC are effectively the same
CgH and HCg are effectively the same

2/4 becomes 1/2. 50%

Attached: criticalautism.png (1920x1980, 757K)

>It's like tossing a coin
It's not like tossing a coin because they're not independent events

The two coins are distinct entities, CH and HC are not equal.

Imagine that one of the coins is 1 dollar and the other is 2 dollers and you get which ever coin is heads. Do you think you would care which coin ended up heads?

Answer this

Kill yourself brainlet, I just showed you have to count two CCs yet your in denial because you have no argument
>buh buh buh buh muh authority! Buzzfeed says it’s 1/3!

>Order has nothing to do with i

And stopped reading there.

33%

That's not specified at all. It just says you have 1 crit. Which is only relevant if you fail to get a crit naturally on the first roll and forces a crit then.

Again that's the point, it isn't irrelevant.

Because the question explicitly states that you discard any results that do not have at least one crit

>durr duh two hits are the same hit
This is what 1/2brainlets think

>I can't refute the post so I'll pretend I didn't read it

I'm onto you

No, lots of things say it's 1/3. You're just delusional.

you flip for both, we just ignore the 1 scenario where neither happened

Where does it say to reattack if you do not crit? Underline it for me.

Its already been substantially refuted multiple times. You're either just too dense to realize it or have a shitty ego vacuum

50/100 × 50/100 = 2500/10000

>33%ers argue that Hit>Crit and Crit>Hit are different things
>yet Guaranteed Crit>Crit and Crit into Guaranteed Crit are the same.

BRAVO

RETARDS

Not necessarily. I took your B as "precisely one". Maybe I'm wrong. Even so, at least some here is using their brain.

P(A|B) = P(AnB) / P(A) = 0.25/0.5= 0.5...

50% chance

Attached: file.png (1391x433, 136K)

I'm sorry you find this so hard to understand.

STILL WAITING FOR A PROPER EXPLANATION OF THIS

I already used an actual argument to demonstrate why it’s 50%, putting it in line with all other math that says a 50% chance is a 50% chance outside of this one meme question that even the asshat who coined it admits relies on semantics to even get the 1/3 result

Way to not even understand the image you posted

retard.

Proofs? You have one reply or else you forfeit.

>What is the question asking? What are the odds that both hits are crits
No. You already know one of the two hits is a crit. What it's really asking is what are the probability THE OTHER hit is a crit?

50% probability means you flip a coin twice.
The case where you don't double crit is completely irrelevant for the double crit case.

What actually happens is:
double crit: 25% (y y)
only first crit: 25% (y n )
second crit: 50% (n y) + ( n n) correction to (n y)

>d-doesnt count
>muh semantics
C O P E

It depends if the guaranteed crit is decided beforehand or not

Please refer to
And
You can't slap stuff into Bayes without considering the proper conditions.

>HURR DURR I R SMERT XD WOW I SO INTELIGUNT

I feel bad for your parents.

You can present the same exact question as OP with coins and it will work the same.

>you throw two coins. At least one of them is tails. What are the chances that both will be tails?

So then we have the following possible outcomes:

Coin 1 / Coin 2
Tails / Heads
Tails / Tails

I will not stand for this buffoonery. If I flip a coin twice and ask for my odds of getting heads, you would never consider whether the two outcomes of heads tails and tails heads were unequal in the determination of this probability. I want off this crazy ride.

>You hit the enemy twice, at least one of them is a crit
An alternative solution is to skip flipping the coin and count it as a C.

Because in the case of CC, there is no order to determine whether which is the guaranteed crit.

but you're actually wrong, so you're actually the retard

The answer is both 1/3 and 1/2. Now stop pretending to be smart and do some research.

BASED enlightened centrist!

Only, I'm not. End of debate. If you reply, you forfeit automatically.

>Because in the case of CC, there is no order to determine whether which is the guaranteed crit.

Exactly, hence why we need to take both Guaranteed Crit>Crit and Crit into Guaranteed Crit into account

It really is this though, because the problem is intentionally left vague and up to interpretation. There is no single answer.

>You can present the same exact question as OP with coins and it will work the same.
No you can't you fucking retard they're not independent events you're just using an analogy that your subhuman retard tier brain can understand better but that's not what is actually happening

Flipping for the first crit does not "use up" your guaranteed crit, because you flipped for it.
You only gave that crit a 50% chance of occurring when the given "one crit" has a 100% chance of occurring.
You're treating 50% the same as 100%

Why does Yea Forums get so overly emotional over simple maths?

Attached: 1538832662542.jpg (1920x1080, 752K)

There is no such thing as a 'guaranteed crit' it never says there is, only there is at least 1 crit. The only situation where it is guaranteed is if the first roll is a H and you've failed anyway. Leaving there a 25% chance for a CC and 25% for CH. 50% for HC.

It's 99%. Lucklet not welcome

One of the crits is given
Why would you flip for something that has 100% chance of occurring?

>retard can't understand that the two hits are in fact separate hits
lmao cope

I accept your concession.

Only you are. I'm not him, end of debate. If you reply, you forfeit automatically.

Again, how would you determine which is the guaranteed crit?

It's mostly shitposting to kill time, don't take it too seriously

The two hits and the two coins are independent events because the only condition given is that ONE is a crit/tails, but not which one.

0.25 is correct. It's a simple use of Bernoulli's schema.

wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability of 2 successes in 2 trials with p=.5

>It's mostly shitposting to kill time, don't take it too seriously
Partly, but some people seem to get really invested into these threads.

There is no 'guaranteed crit' at all, only at least 1 crit. It never at all says you don't have to roll for a crit at all.

>do googling
>reddit unanimously agrees that the answer is 1/3

huh... so that explains it...

>Again that's the point, it isn't irrelevant.
It will never not be irrelevant so long as the two different outcomes present the same result. I play poker so I know that My odds of getting dealt 75 are the same as my odds of getting dealt 57. Same outcome, despite the order they come in.

>mostly
And it could be acting.

Why are the "muh 50%" retards ignoring this?

1/3 or 33% refers to the initial chance based on the number of possible outcomes available at the beginning of the scenario, it's a very simple minded way to look at the problem. It does not account for how developments during the scenario effect the number of outcomes available.

The first hit has a 50% chance to crit, once this hit lands it either changes the number of outcomes available or answers the scenario.

If it's not a crit then it answers the scenario right away. An answer brought on by a 50-50 chance. That's the simple part.

Now if it is a critical this changes the number of outcomes left to two, either our first hit was our guaranteed crit and therefore always had a 100% chance to be a crit OR our first hit was not our guaranteed crit and we managed to get lucky. In either circumstance there is only two available outcomes left, either we have to roll our first actual 50-50 chance or we have already succeeded in our only 50-50 chance.

The one hit will always crit part does more then just rule out a HH it also dictates how the scenario evolves after the first variable is decided.

Tldr it's 50% chance

Thanks for agreeing to my terms. I will take this victory, Issuing the same doesn't nullify it since you crossed mine to make them, you fucking retard :)

One is a crit.
That means that it's roll is irrelevant. It could be either hit. It doesn't matter, this event has already happened and does not need to be factored into the equation.
The other has a 50% crit.
It crits or it does not.
50%

>Again, how would you determine which is the guaranteed crit?
You can't hence why both CC outcomes need to be taken into account.

>the only condition given is that ONE is a crit/tails
Which means you can't use a coin where the probability is 50%

Why, the answer to that question is obviously 1/3

Attached: 1546978437130.jpg (1080x1331, 216K)

the problem states they both have a 50% chance of happening.
there is no 100% chance crit

The answer is here. Just stop, guys.

Wolframalpha is nice, but you have to know how to use it right. It gave you the correct answer, but the problem you entered does not correspond with the problem from the OP.

Answer my question.

You flip a one dollar coin and a two dollar coin. If you get heads on a coin, you get that coin, if you get tails on a coin, you don't. Let's list out the scenario:

1(T), 2(T) = 0$
1(H), 2(T) = 1$
1(T), 2(H) = 2$
1(H), 2(H) = 3$

What you're arguing by saying that order doesn't matter is that the scenario where you get one dollar and two dollars are the exact same scenario. In other words, you're saying that 1 = 2.

Seeing as that's can't be true, HT and TH have to be separate outcomes.

Attached: 1504040419997.jpg (496x600, 34K)

So we got 50% fags, 33% fags, and now 25% fags. Who you got?

Attached: True Patriot .jpg (720x700, 71K)

Your concession is dully noted, stamped and delivered. Kindly take the receipt on your way out.

I believe this to be a clever troll.

The answer is 1/3.

>In the scenario given, you just happened to get lucky and one of them is a crit.

>If one of them was a guaranteed crit, that's a different question,

This is the mistake, one of them is guaranteed in the scenario. This wording is quite clever and misleading however

Then try it. Flip a coin twice, HH is the equivalent of 2 crits, if you get TT discard the result. Repeat until you're satisfied with the sample size.

thank you

the problem is if the first one was already rolled then its 50/50 or if the thing is just a smaller pool where any outcome needs to have at least one be flipped.

>there is no guaranteed crit, only at least one crit
we're reaching "artificial fun" levels of stupidity here

>there is no 100% chance crit
Of course there is otherwise it would be possible to get zero crits you retard

>Repeat until you're satisfied with the sample size.
Or just view

But...so is the probability of getting a crit / regular hit. You can use coins for this example in the way I presented it:

>you throw two coins. At least one of them is tails. What are the chances that both will be tails?

You could replace it with 50% hit / 50% miss, at least one is a hit, what are the odds that both will be hits. Exactly the same outcomes:

HH - The one we want.
MM - This one can't happen, so it's discarded
HM -
MH -

Again, 1/3.

At least 1 of the hits is a crit != guaranteed crit all the time.
Only if you get H first it will be 100%.

You're right, it should be 1/3 since the condition is that at least one crits. Tbh I remembered this thread from a few months ago and didn't even read the question and so I forgot about the condition.

the odds that (1 = C while 2 = (C or H)) or (1 = (C or H) while 2 = C) are 100%

My only problem with how it’s worded is it’s stating that one hit will land before the attacker even knows so that means technically 1 hit is 100% this round of play.

it is possible, we just ignore that scenario, you silly billy.

Except they can't, as there is no way of determining which Crit is the guaranteed Crit, the reason HC and CH is accounted for as being separate is because we have a way of accounting it, via its order.
With CC, there is no way to check whether or not a Crit was guaranteed to be rolled and which was plain luck.
To put it another way, say we were using coins instead and just discarded the TT outcomes, how would you determine which of "two" results was a guaranteed crit?

Nah, you forfeited, plain and simple. You may go now, brainlet.

>MM - This one can't happen, so it's discarded
It's not discarded because that's how coins work but we're not referring to coins we're referring to critical attacks GIVEN one is guaranteed to occur

>You can present the same exact question as OP with coins and it will work the same.
>>you throw two coins. At least one of them is tails. What are the chances that both will be tails?
>So then we have the following possible outcomes:
>Coin 1 / Coin 2
>Tails / Heads Tails / Tails Heads / Tails One in two. Heads / Heads can't happen because we know there's a guarantee of at least one tail and Heads / Tails is the same outcome as Tails / Heads
:^)

Wrong.

Place a coin Heads up on the table to represent the confirmed crit.
Now flip the other coin at random.

I was a 50% fag until I read it carefully, now I'm 33% fag, but I think 25% is right. Basically I got no clue.

Attached: wew.gif (370x288, 1.5M)

see

>It does not account for how developments during the scenario effect the number of outcomes
There are no changes to the rules during the scenario because both coins are flipped and produce an outcome simultaneously and instantaneously, dumbass.

Childish temper tantrums from you both aside, you did trigger his terms first, so you're the one bowing out.

It's 1/3, the last two digits of this post is my IQ.

>user can't understand that the two coins are separate entities

>it is possible
No it isn't possible at all as stated in the question
It can never happen

You'd be stupid to think they are the same thing in all cases when they aren't. If you get a C on the first roll you've already fulfilled the requirements of the question and you can't get a guaranteed second crit.

Except the chances of one of those HM is 1/2

It always is [ (Number of Outcomes that fulfill your criteria) / (Total number of outcomes) ] times 100%.

You are correct.

I'm a 1/3fag through and through. I do understand where 1/2fags coming from but so fucking wrong.

So if there is a guaranteed crit, it's an 1/2 chance
If there is no guaranteed crit, and it's basically "reroll the experiment on 2 failed hits" then it is an 1/3 chance.

Case 1: {GC|H, GC|C, H|GC, C|GC}
a set of 4 elements with equal probabilities in case 1 with 2 elements fulfilling the condition => 1/2 chance.

Case 2: {H|H, H|C, C|H, C|C}/{H|H} = {H|C, C|H, C|C}
a set of 3 elements with equal probabilities and one fulfilling the condition => 1/3 chance.

>retard can't understand that they're not equal independent events

Except he's included an outcome that is impossible to achieve, HH.

Awesome falseflag, bro! Hillary 2020!

1/3 * 100% is 33% user

A laplace experiment where one instance has a 100% chance of occuring means that instance doesn't matter. This in return means only one swing matters and the chance of that critting is 50%, whether it is the first or the second swing does not matter.

>50% crit rate
means 0% chance for double crit
crit noncrit or noncrit crit equals 50% crit rate

Crit Crit can't happen if you want to keep a 50% crit rate. As soon as double crit is above 0% chance the overall crit rate goes above 50% thus it must be 0% to retain 50% crit rate.

Attached: pariston-hill-hunter-x-hunter-2011-0.83.jpg (210x240, 18K)

It's 50%, don't be persuaded into retarding yourself.

Two hits, at least one of them was a critical, meaning we're only focusing on the hit that did or didn't crit. 50%.

it is possible, again we just ignore the scenario, not that the scenario is completely impossible.
it says to assume a 50% chance of crit, so saying one is 100% completely contradicts the question entirely

How do you know the first crit is the guaranteed one? This is math you brainlet, you can't just assume things like that. If the first hit crits, the second one doesn't have to. Likewise, if the first hit doesn't crit, the second one has to. That's why HC and CH are separate scenarios. 1/3 is the correct answer.

>retard still on damage control about the gold ball problem

50%. One has to be a crit so it cancels that one out, so we're left with one that has a 50/50 chance

>It's not discarded because that's how coins work
The problem literally instructs you to discard MM.

You have never taken a probability class in your life or you're a replicant. Hypothetical cases are constantly used, even with coins. "IF this happens, what are at the odds of this other thing" is used constantly, even with coins.

TH and HT are two different outcomes. It's 1/3.

No, it's not. There are 4 overall outcomes, 1 is discarded, so we are left with 3 valid outcomes. Only 1 we want, so it's 1/3. It's really that simple. There's nothing else left to this.

>it is possible
No it is not possible the question states that there will always be a crit so it is quite literally not possible for this event to occur

No, which one is the guaranteed crit matters as well.

Both 25%, 50% and even 1/3rd are correct depending on how you interpret the problem, since it's badly written.
If you take it literally, it's 50%, because the guaranteed crit can happen on both strikes, not necessarily the first, so you have 4 different outcomes. (G) means guaranteed.
Crit(G) + Crit
Crit(G) + no crit
Crit + crit(G)
No crit + crit(G)
Half of the times you get two crits, thus 50%.
Still, no answer is 100% correct or 100% wrong in this problem.
Now everybody maybe can stop getting trolled by the same decade old meme

what

This post is galaxy brain right here

No it doesn't it literally says at least 1 is always a crit

>IF this happens
Yes key phrase IF this happens which the question states it does you cretin

At least one is a crit.
That means which ever strike that crit was is irrelevant. There is at least one. So the only point that maters is the possible outcomes of the other strike. There is no precedence. At least one is a crit. So there is a 100% chance that half of the outcomes have been decided. The only thing that is unknown is the second/other strike.

Hit or crit.

Alright jackass, answer me this.

There's no longer a guarantee that one of the hits is a crit. Chance for each crit is still 50%. What's the probability that both are a crit? What's the probability that only one is a crit?

it is possible. it’s impossible for that 50% to turn into a 100% as you so desperately want it to

Attached: bag.jpg (768x576, 99K)

But the answer is still 50% when you account for that

but the first hit is still a coin flip. there is, at base, a 50% chance of not critting on the first hit

this isn't monty hall. you don't get to change your preference after recieving information

They are NOT equal probabilities though. In the event a H comes first there is are 100% chance that a C comes next. If a C comes first then there's another 50% roll for another C or H.
{CH,CC,HC,HC} are all equally likely leading to 25,25,50 respectively.

youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA

Attached: 1399085403494.jpg (229x238, 37K)

>Yes key phrase IF this happens which the question states it does you cretin
Yes, that's why it's conditional probability. At least ONE is a crit/tail. Are you incapable of abstract thinking?

No it is quite literally not possible for there to be 2 non-crits in a question which states that 1 crit MUST occur you illiterate moron

the only sensible answer

Attached: aquana.jpg (337x613, 25K)

>No it doesn't it literally says at least 1 is always a crit
Yes, which means that results that show not at least one crit are discarded and don't influence the answer.

Which is correct. If the Crit is guaranteed then it'll be 1 in 3 but the image in the OP does not apecify the crit is guaranteed. It just lists your particular scenario, general crit chance and asks what are the odds for double crit. In this case it's 1 in 4 so 25%.

25% and 50%, are you retarded?

>1/3 or 33% refers to the initial chance based on the number of possible outcomes available at the beginning of the scenario
So it's the answer to the question then, you dont get to change your answer halfway through.

>That means which ever strike that crit was is irrelevant.
That is EXACTLY what's relevant. Imagine that one coin is gold and the other is silver and you get whichever is heads. Does it matter which one is heads?

>At least ONE is a crit/tail
Yes so it's a guaranteed event you cretin meaning it is not 2 independent events with equal probability

You're still taking the brainlet approach of thinking the hits are sequential when they're actually simultaneous.

>lil bobby, your answer is incorrect
>it's not, i just interpreted the question differently
kek

If you flipped for it at all, you aren't treating it as the "at least one"
You have to have a scenario where you allow the first flip to be the "at least one" and you flip for the 2nd hit instead

No it means they never occur in this scenario it is literally impossible for them to ever occur

it is possible, we just get to ignore it every time it does. if we are performing this experiment in game we ignore the times when both don’t crit, we don’t get to magically turn that 50% in the game’s code into a 100%

First attack has a 1/2 of not being a crit

You guys are fucking retarded

First attack:
a) 50% chance to get a crit
b) 50% chance to not get a crit

In case a) happens, it's another 50% to get a crit again, so you have a 25% chance in total for both of them to be a crit.

In case b) happens, the second hit normally still has a 50% chance to be a crit, but the special rule activates and it becomes a crit no matter what.

So to sum it up

Crit Crit = 25%
Crit Hit = 25%
Hit Crit = 50%

33% is as retarded as saying "it's 50/50 to win the lottery my dude, you either win or you don't xD"

>Only having 50% crit chance
Go consult a build guide, dumbfuck

You don't know if the crit you just saw was due to chance or it was the guaranteed one, so even if the firststrike crits the second one can still be the guaranteed crit.

They are independent events because we don't know if the crit/tail is on the first attack/coin or on the second. This is beyond statistics now, it's purely your incapability of abstract thinking.

Look at this See what the odds given by 50% crit?

It's not irrelevant because it's a math problem and HC and CH are different scenarios that influence probability. Did they not teach you probability in high school? Use Bernoulli'a schema, discard HH and you end up with 1/3. It's that simple.

that is an assumption

you cannot assume only the second hit is random

That's simply incorrect.

>it is possible
No it isn't possible there is no event in which there will ever be a scenario where there is 2 non-crits when the question explicitly states that this scenario is impossible

>TH and HT are two different outcomes. It's 1/3.
They are the same outcome when determining my probability for getting T or H: 50/50.

it doesn’t state that it is impossible, only that we assume it doesn’t happen. so again, we get to ignore it if it were to happen in an actual experiment

50%

Who else 25% master race?

Attached: Kobe-san.jpg (500x331, 40K)

Doesn't negate my reasoning in the slightest and still applies.
Even if two different people stroke at the same time, if one of them (randomly) will always crit and the other one has 50% chance of doing so, it will be 50% of both critting. The second hit connecting simultaneously or a year later is completely irrellevant.
And you go around calling people brainlets, lol.

>They are independent events
No they're not independent events if there HAS to be a crit it is impossible for them to be independent

>Look at this
Do you think I'm a redditor like you who gets intimidated and bows to the authority of a programme which is completely unrelated?

Essentially you add the chance of getting HH to the chance of getting HC, instead of completely discounting the outcome. So HC becomes 50%, the other outcomes stay at 25%

ye but arguing is fun

Am I being retarded? 2 hits means one guaranteed crit. The only thing that matters is the one hit left. For which the chance is %50 as stated in the image.

It explicitly states that there MUST be at least one crit

It's 50, the fact that there are two hits is entirely irellevant.

correct.
You have to have include two scenarios.
One where the 1st hit is random and the 2nd hit is your "at least one", and one where the 2nd hit is random, and the first hit is your "at least one".

EXACTLY.

However, there are two outcomes that lead to one being a crit, CH and HC and you acknowledge that 2 out of 4 options is 50%. However, in the example stated in the OP, you ignore the fact that these two outcomes are separate. 2 out of 3 options is 66%, the other option (Two crits) is 1 out of 3, ergo 33%. Keep your logic consistent.

Correct, everyone else is retarded and assumes at least 1 crit = guaranteed crits.

Let's say I own a pizza store and you buy 2 pizzas from me. At least one pizza has pepporoni. What are the odds both have pepporoni?

No it isn't. If you assume one strike happens after the other (which is wrong by the way):

First hit doesn't crit 1/2
First hit crits 1/2

If first hit doesn't crit second crit is guaranteed outcome. 1/2 * 1 = 1/2

If first hit does crit you again have 50/50 odds.
First hit crits second hit doesn't: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4
Both hits crit: 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4

Total probability 1/2+1/4+1/4 = 1

If the attacks are sequential the answer is 1/4
If the attacks are simultaneous the answer is 1/3

it says 50% chance of a crit. where does it say one gets a 100% buff?

It's two regular hits both with a 50% chance to crit. You don't have one 100% crit and one 50% crit. The question asks what the chance is for both being crits when you ignore the cases in which both aren't crits.

meant to link

You need to add 2 crits-crits you absolute mongoloid, it's 2 different outcomes since the guaranteed one can be the second hit not necessarily the first.
Crit! - crit 25%
Crit - crit! 25%
No crit - crit! 25%
Crit! - no crit. 25%
50% of getting two crits, 50% of getting none.

This is the easiest conditional probability question I’ve ever seen.
Apply yourselves.

Is there a reason why you can't demonstrate this problem with coins, where the other one is a counterfeit with identical sides? This would force one result to be guaranteed.
If you toss the coins blindly, you will not know which one is the counterfeit one, and the regular coin will determine if you get a pair or not.
Another way would be to toss two coins, and then blindly determine one of them as heads, and then check the other one if its heads or tails.

>food analogies

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No, it doesn't. It states that only results are counted in which at least one hit crits. There is a difference.

>at least one of the hits is a crit

No, it won't. Because there's twice as much chance of one them gritting as both of them critting. You should have finished high school my dude.

Don't solve the problem as if its only 1 hit, there are 2 hits. If a crit is guaranteed then account for that too in your solution, dont just throw a hit out the window because "one hit is guaranteed to crit any ways."

They are not. Look at the example I'm giving to the other guy below. Run it yourself, using two different coins (of different value). They are different coins/attacks. They are not the same.

As I said, you're incapable of abstract thinking. Why not just run the experiment? Grab two coins (of different value, to differentiate them), throw the pair as many times as you want. Write down the results. If it's heads/heads, discard it all together. You're going to end with roughly a third of each combination (TT, HT, TH), proving this correct.

Actually it doesn't state that at all because that's a complete figment of your imagination

That's wrong buddy, you're not coding the second strike to also be guaranteed on occasion.

There are four possible scenarios:

>HH
>CH
>HC
>CC

We care about the CC scenario. We know for a fact that HH can't be possible so we ignore that scenario. That leaves us with three scenarios:

>CH
>HC
>CC

1 out of 3 scenarios gives us two crits, Ergo 33%.

It doesn't matter cause probabilities are worthless. How many times have you trusted in a probability only to get fucked hard. It's the scam math that makes you feel like you're doing something when you are actually doing nothing

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yeah that means we ignore the time both don’t crit, not that one gets a buff

>hard-coding results
Uuuh.

>if the first one misses, the second is a guaranteed crit in ALL circumstances
So the second is 100% guaranteed to be a crit. And what was the chance that the first one wasnt a crit?

>As I said, you're incapable of abstract thinking
As I said you're only capable of using rhetoric to try and intimidate plebs into submission but your logic is completely wrong
>Why not just run the experiment? Grab two coins
Because implied in my answer this isn't how that works

The only real question is :
Is the group composed of the crit hit and the next hit a representation of the global crit population, or is it only a slice?

If it represents the entire population, then the chance is 50%, but if the group only represents a slice, then the chance are a little higher.

>blindly determine one of them as heads, and then check the other one if its heads or tails.
This is the only way the wording of this puzzle would work practically.

Irrefutable evidence that 1/3 is correct, stay seething 1/2fags

>yeah that means we ignore the time both don’t crit
No it means that event never occurs

There is no guaranteed second crit illiterate . Since when does "at least 1" = "2nd crit"

50%
You can't have a situation where two non-crits occur and the chance of rolling a miss is the same as rolling a crit

The only probabilities that you can "trust" as you seem to understand it are 0% and 100%. Are you questioning the basic mechanics of the universe?

I can't believe so many of you are still arguing when the answer is very obviously 33%. If HH was a possibility it would be 25%.

it means it’s ignored

It's exactly how it works. Do you have dice around the house? Do it the same way. 1-2-3 is "hit", 4-5-6 is "crit". Take two dice and throw them 100 times. Ignore those that are 1-2-3 + 1-2-3. Write down the rest. You're going to get 4-5-6 + 4-5-6 roughly a third of the times.

I'm done anyways, you have enough evidence in this thread in form of videos, links and even examples you can run yourself.

>No it means that event never occurs
Exactly, that's what ignoring results means. That still doesn't mean you can just buff one of the hits to 100% chance.

If you flip a coin to determine the outcome of a hit, you are not treating that hit as your "at least one".
Whichever hit is your "at least one" doesn't need to be flipped for at all, because it's a given based ont eh wording of the problem.
You do not know which hit this is.
You must account for both of:
Treating the 2nd hit as the "at least one" and flip for the first, resulting in:
Hit, "at least one"
Crit, "at least one"
(you got that far at least)
As well as treating the first hit as your "at least one" and instead flip for the 2nd, resulting in:
"at least one", Hit
"at least one", Crit

That's not the only way to interpret it.

>Your friend flips a coin
>He then flips another
>He tells you "At least one of these coins is heads"
>You haven't seen either of the coin.

That scenario would give you 1/3

>It's exactly how it works
No that's exactly how it works using your logic but your logic isn't correct

>it's 2 different outcomes since the guaranteed one can be the second hit not necessarily
It doesn't matter, if both coins are heads, it doesn't matter in which order they are determined, you poor dumbass.

It's 1/4 bros.

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You seem to be forgetting one of them is guaranteed to crit, you can simply remove that guy from the equation, be it the first or second guy, the other has a 50% chance, that's the only variable.
If I told you that you know it's the first guy who always crits, would you still tell me it's not 50% chance to get both crits?
Just because you're uncertain about the data doesn't mean it applies differently.
One of them crits, the other has 50% chance, not that hard, now if the problem said "if the first attack crits, that was always the guaranteed crit and you can't have another" you'd be right, but since the first crit can be so just because of chance and not guaranteed, that allows the second strike to also be the guaranteed crit, evening out the odds to 50%.

If i have a billion hits and a billion-1 hits are a crit, it's the same bullshit.
The chance of all being crits is 50% because it comes down to the last hit thats non-deterministic.

Crit, no crit
No crit, crit
Crit, crit
No crit, no crit

The latter is impossible so 1/3

This is wrong. You turn a 1-2-3 + 1-2-3 into a 1-2-3 + 4-5-6. At least 1 means that you get a buff to 100% crit chance if you fail the first throw.

It doesn't! In fact, That's why it's repeated! To allow it to be the first hit!

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At some point you have to realize the people that keep saying 50% or 25% are trolling you.

Is one of the dice rolls guaranteed to be 4-5-6 you absolute gigantic retard?

If the first hit crits that satisfies the "at least one" criteria. It shouldn't be this hard for you to understand.

>at least one of the two hits you just landed were crits

>somehow this results in a 25% chance

It's either 33% or 50% but 25% is absolute 100% mental retardation.

Finally someone with sense.

The outcomes are not equal. Crit crit can only happen if the first hit crits. See

Run the experiment god damnit and see if it's correct. If you're right, it should double "crit" about half the time. Roll a hundred times. Write it down. Ignore when you get two "hits". Post results. Unless you're scarred og being proven wrong?

No capability for abstract thinking is a consequence of low IQ.

Use this user's example: if you want it even more dumbed down.

Or you are simply wrong

some anons are convinced that the 50% chance turns into 100% under certain conditions

YES, there are only 3 possibilities (CH,HC,CC), but those possibilities dont have even odds. If there was no guaranteed crit, there would be 4 even possibilities (CC,CH,HC,HH), but since HH is not possible, and a crit is guaranteed after a hit, HC probability becomes 50%.

I.e
CC = 25%
CH = 25%
HC= 50%

You 33% fags need to join the right side of history. Believe in 25%.

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This thread is some serious autism

If the first hit is guaranteed then it's 50% chance
If not then it's 1/3 chance

Now shut the fuck up nerds.

>If I told you that you know it's the first guy who always crits, would you still tell me it's not 50% chance to get both crits?
Then it wouldn't be the same question.
>Just because you're uncertain about the data doesn't mean it applies differently
That's not how probability works.

Fuck Yea Forumsirgins are dumbasses

NO IT DOESNT YOU STUPID FUCK.
ONE OF THEM IS GUARANTEED TO CRIT, YOU DONT KNOW WHICH ONE, IF THE FIRST ONE CRITS, IT CAN BE BASED ON CHANCE AND STILL LEFT THE SECOND CRIT TO HE GUARANTEED, NOWHERE IN THE PROBLEM IT'S STATED THAT THE FIRST CRIT HITTING AUTOMATICALLY CANCELS OUT THE SECOND HIT BEING A GUARANTEED CRIT.
maybe with caps your brain will understand.

This thread is basically why gambling is so profitable. Too many tards can't into statistics.
Statistics course in uni also has a 50% fail rate. Even those who try are still garbage.

If your simulation returns impossible results, that doesn't mean you just get to throw only those out, it means your entire simulation is flawed.

Whatever logic you use to come up with the answer to this should never return a "No crit, no crit" instance, and if it does your logic it wrong.

Poorly worded bait.
>At least one of the hits is a crit
What does this mean? Why does it matter?
Not necessarily that one is guarateed so the answer would be 1/4.

If it actually meant that, then 1/2 because only one roll actually matters.

It isn't the first hit that's guaranteed to crit. Could be the second one. See

Why would I run an experiment that confirms the result your logic when I am saying that your logic isn't correct? Are you that much of a mouth breathing retard that you think I'm disputing the result of that particular experiment?

Don't you mean 33% fail?

For the last time, there are two crits-crits scenarios, not one, first crit being guaranteed or second hit being guaranteed you fucking underage.

Possibilities:
CxC
CCx
HCx
CxH

H= Non critical hit
C = Critical hit
Cx = the critical hit that was guaranteed
its 50%

actually 1/4 fail you idiots can't you into math?

Because if you actually read the question it explicitly states that there is always AT LEAST 1 crit. Meaning that to fulfil that requirement the only guaranteed crit is if you get a H on the first throw. A guaranteed crit after you rolled a C already is retarded and proves you can't read.

You have a 50% chance to roll a crit
If you don't, you will in the second
If you do, you have a 50% chance to crit again
The answer is 25% because it's .50 x .50 for the only outcome that matters, not because there are 4 potential outcomes

That is a guarantee. You have a minimum (at least) one crit in two swings in this scenario. There is no wiggle room in the wording, you landed a crit.

The only real question is which hit was the crit or if they both crit.

It's the same question, you're just uncertain, tell me what's the fucking difference between knowing who'll do the crit and just knowing one of them will?
For your logic to apply, the second hit could never be the guaranteed crit, and the problem explicitly clarifies any of the two can be a guaranteed crit.

Certified illiterate. At least 1 != guaranteed second crit

it means we ignore HH, not turn one of the attempts into a 100% crit

>AT LEAST 1 crit
Yes, at least one of the two 50% rolls. Which results in a 33% chance overall.

ALRIGHT MOTHER FUCKERS, I'M GONNA CLEAR THIS SHIT UP. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW YOU INTERPRET THE IMAGE:

>I throw a coin. If it happens to be tails then the next one has to be heads automatically.
25%

>I throw two coins. My friend looks down and says "at least one of them is heads". I haven't looked at the coins yet.
33%

>I throw two coins. I look at on of them and see that it's heads. I haven't looked at the other.
50%

There, solved your problem.

Intuition says 66% chance, since there are three possibilities that give a "heads" and two of those possibilities are held by the double-headed coin.

So you're saying an outcome where the first hit crits by chance and the second one happened to be the guaranteed crit is impossible?
Care to explain why? Your reading comprehension seems like a 10 years old.

You have yet to show how that experiment doesn't correspond to the OP

>I throw a coin. If it happens to be tails then the next one has to be heads automatically.
physically impossible. the other two I can ubderstand

What if your first hit was the guaranteed crit?
Just because you don't have a way to tell them apart doesn't mean it can't happen.

Wrong, it means that it's an impossible scenario.
Wrong, there is no guaranteed crit on the first throw only if you get a H first.
{CH,CC,HC,HC} are all equally likely, and fulfils the at least 1 crit requirements.

Correct, it might be the first hit that's guaranteed! So lets write down those cases!
GH
GC
But then again it COULD be the 2nd, because we don't know which is which, so we gotta include
HG
CG

4 different cases
2 of those different cases include 2 critical hits
2 out 0f 4 is 50%
wow!
as an added bonus none of the cases we examined is HH, which is great because that scenario is impossible given the parameters in the problem, so if we saw it we would instantly know we were doing something wrong and not simulating the question correctly

There is no "guarantee" in the OP picture, it just said that one hit was crit, the chance is still 1/4 that the next one is also crit.

We are not thowing coins, it's a game which buffs crit chance to 100% if you get a hit first.

You've had it explained to you a million times you're just a myopic cretin
Maybe instead of wasting $100k on a maths degree you should learn basic argumentation

nope, just means it doesn’t pertain to our experiment, that that we need to change other values to magically make it impossible

If one doesn’t have to be a crit, then you are right.

However it all boils down to the oracle problem which the random number generator is situated in

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Look at this special dumbass here.

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Where in the question does it say guaranteed crit? It doesn't anywhere.

this is the dumbest shit in this thread

>it's a game which buffs crit chance to 100% if you get a hit first
nope

How do you know the first hit isn't the buffed hit?

I think the main problem here is that both groups are doing different maths to get their answers. However, if the guaranteed crit’s placement matters, then it must be denoted differently (i’ll use C rather than c)

This new notation creates the following odds:
Cc
cC
mC
Cm
Meaning that out of these four outcomes, two are all crits. If you believe that position doesn’t matter, then the guaranteed crit occurring first or second is irrelevant. Then we end up with the following:
Cm
Cc
A 50% chance again. Now the way everyone else is trying to solve this equation is by including one set of unique crit placement, but not another. The omission of Cc and cC instead being represented as one possibility is a mistake and doesn’t accurately represent the given data.

You guys are reading it wrong. It's not saying you can repeat this experiment and have one hit be a critical every single time. It's asking about one isolated instance of two hits being made with at least one being a critical.

Assume there's no damage numbers. The enemy goes down in three normal hits, or only two hits if at least one is a crit. The enemy went down in two hits. What are the odds that both of those hits were critical?

It's 1/3, no matter how hard butthurt redneck tier Yea Forumstards scream

math.stackexchange.com/questions/991060/flip-two-coins-if-at-least-one-is-heads-what-is-the-probability-of-both-being

>I understand math better than a math student because I can argue better on the internet.

Thanks for ousting yourself as a retard.

Retard, there is no guaranteed second crit. It never once says that in the question. At least 1 crit != have a second crit for free.

Wrong, its 25%.
See

Two hits

At least one hit is a critical. That is given to you. Work in the scope of the problem.

You forgot the qualifier, you moron.

>even the gaurunteed crit fags can’t agree with each other
this is great

You're so retarded that you don't even understand that it's possible to be wrong despite producing a valid result from your experiment that's how worthless your degree is
Try acquiring more knowledge in a variety of different fields and you might come across as more intelligent than an autistic teenage retard in the future

The math of both situations are the same, user. Even though a crit is not technically guaranteed, according to the data (died in two hits) at least one critical must have happened, effectively having the same odds as if the crit was guaranteed from the beginning.

but wait, that would mean we ignore the scenario where both don’t crit.
THAT CONTRADICTS MY BUFF THEORY

wtf are you talking about?
they all get 50% and show the same 4 cases

The guaranteed crit only matters when the first isn't, it's literally a welfare situation that prevents you from NHing twice
Your first roll is still 50%, your chance to crit again is still 50%

Because that isn't what the question says. It says there is at least 1 crit. Not that you get a free buffed hit randomly. You only need the buff if you don't get a crit first to ensure you can't get HH.

>The guaranteed crit only matters when the first isn't
The question does not say this.
How do you know the 2nd attack is the welfare attack?
Why couldn't the first attack be the welfare attack instead?

The guaranteed crit is determined, even if you don't know which one it is, it can be any.
If I told you the first/second hit will crit, you'd be certain it's 50% to crit twice, but somehow not knowing which one of two hits will have a 100% chance causes the probability to change?
You're fucking retarded, what if I told you "you hit twice, one of your hits has a 100% chance of critting and the other 50%". You'd instantly say 50% chance of critting twice, and this is exactly what the problem is saying.

one says either can be gaurunteed, making it 50%, the other is saying only the second can be gaurunteed if the first was not, making it 25%.
they’ve been arguing about it for a while now

user, I'm sorry you don't understand how probabilities work. Maybe take a course or watch some videos on youtube. Get at least a little educated, You don't need a degree to understand basic shit like this.

>30%
How'd your parents take that E in Algebra 1, anons?

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Doesn't say that in the problem, you're making that rule up to fit your description, that's why you're wrong.
One of the hits is a g crit, the behaviour of the other strike is completely irrelevant, it doesn't say anywhere that the first can't be a crit on chance and the second one can be the guaranteed still.
Your logic is correct but you're applying to the wrong problem.

Quit with the strawmans man.
Where was it said in ops post that it was simultaneous? Not that it matters as there is still two variables and one of the variables is still already decided. And were did I say the rules change? What rule did I say changed?

I think people get confused because of the whole "3 possible outcomes must mean you divide the probability by 3" and don't understand weighted probability. They completely miss how the rule of one hit is a guaranteed crit effects the scenario overall. It does not just remove the chance of a HH it also weights probably in favour of CC to %50 and HC/CH to 25% each. The order of when your guaranteed crit lands does not really matter, you only ever take one actual roll and that one roll is a 50-50.

You can't read and it's painfully obvious. The question says there is a 50% crit chance with at least 1 crit. There are NO guaranteed crits unless you get a H first turning HH into HC.
{CH,CC,HC,HC} is the only answer.

>at least one is a critical
It could mean that you shot once and you got a crit.

>"you hit twice, one of your hits has a 100% chance of critting and the other 50%"
That problem is not equivalent to the problem in the OP.

>, I'm sorry you don't understand how probabilities work
You can keep repeating this rhetoric a million times and it wont effect me or make you correct because it is precisely that. You have failed for the past hour to understand that the problem isn't the result of your experiment but a dispute over the logic required to arrive at the answer

you're pretty good

true genius
Not 1/2 1/3 or 1/4 the truth is 0.

>but a dispute over the logic required to arrive at the answer
I fully understand that. I'm arguing that your logic is wrong.

He is beyond stupid. I get that its a trick question, so it's okay to get tricked. But holy fuck that guy isn't even reading the question. Ignore him

Fpbp
OP BTFO

First one is weird, but the other two are correct.

>I'm arguing that your logic is wrong.
No you're not hence why you keep telling me to perform your experiment
If you have just now realised this then it is because I pointed it out to you but you clearly weren't intelligent enough to understand that by yourself

It's exactly what it is saying.
Imagine you're playing a mmo and you get a skill that gives you a random 100% crit chance for one hit, otherwise your crit chance is 50%, you hit twice, and before doing so, the game tells you that you will have the proc guaranteed for one of the hits you're about to do, it can pop on your first strike, or the second one, and the other strike will be subject to the normal 50% chance of critting.
That's what the problem is saying, nowhere it says "if you don't crit first, you're guaranteed to crit next", which would be the wording necessary to make it 1/3rd.

both of them are

nice, very cool.

>No you're not hence why you keep telling me to perform your experiment
I'm telling you to perform the experiment because it's an accurate representation of the problem. You're disputing that fact. You're wrong. I understand what's going on fully.

now that the dust has settled: were the gaurunteed-critfags trolling, or just retarded?

That's not what the question in OP is and even if it was, the answer would be 3/8 since you'd need another roll with 1/2 chance on whether the first hit is the guaranteed hit or not.

But I agree that it has to be 1/3. I thought you were arguing it was 1/4.

> random 100% crit chance for one hit
That is never once specified in the question.

25% is the only answer.

>one of the hits is a crit
That's 100% faggot

No you told me to perform the experiment because you're a fucking brainlet who thought that I was disputing the validity of your answer using your logic and if you had realised that wasn't the case then you'd have also realised how utterly futile it would be for me to perform the experiment because it would say nothing about the validity of the logic

Only in the specific instance you get a hit first to ensure you can't get HH. Learn how to read.

Wouldn't it just be
CxH
HCx
CC
because guaranteed crits would only come into play if you got a hit