Has Taleb's "black swan" theory finally become validated through the spread of coronavirus? Can many other modern happenings be considered black swan events as well?
Nassim Taleb
Charles James
Michael Gray
who the fuck is this retard posting about Taleb nonstop
Levi Ramirez
This is unironically my first time posting a thread about him. I've posted in some other Taleb threads but never as an OP. I'm just asking a genuine question, user, relax.
Gavin Diaz
it was already valid but sure
Ethan Campbell
taleb is based
don't get mad because you can't into math, fat tails, phoenician anthropology, genetics, etc.
Andrew Richardson
>DUUUUUDDDDEEEE SOMETIMES RANDOM THINGS HAPPEN LIKE DISEASE THATS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE OR THE LEBANESE CIVIL WAR WHO COULD HAVE PREDICTED THAT A MULTI-ETHNIC,MULTI-RACIAL, MULTI-RELIGIOUS ARTIFICIAL STATE WOULD FALL APART IM GRECO-PHOENICIAN BTW HAHA I CAN DEADLIFE 2 PL8
cool
Austin Cooper
>something unexpected happened
>does this mean that the based arab man was right all along
does it?
Kayden Morris
Examples? It's still debated. Not long ago people were arguing whether Trump's election was a black swan event versus an inevitable result of more deep-rooted issues.
Kevin Bennett
What's the theory? Explain pls
Nathan Green
In a nutshell: There are completely unexpected events that cannot be predicted in any way - yet change the course of history forever. These events are later explained rationally in retrospect as if they were inevitable or part of a normal part of societal progression. If you are fatalistic, you might reject this theory and assume that the world we are living in would be more or less the same despite the outcomes of some of the major events of the 20th century.
You'll find this argument with World War 1 many times: some will tell you Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination changed the world forever, but history textbooks make it seem like the war was bound to happen regardless because of the developments leading up to the war.