/bet/

Surely it won't be a draw

I can't believe you tricked me again.

Guy on ESPN said Pac 12 first round picks over 4 is a good bet. 4 are locks, 1 is questionable. If there are exactly 4 it's a push

why the fuck did i bet on the mariners im retarded

>just give us that 10% piece of the pie in advance goy

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That's how betting works man. You bet 11 against the house's 10 when it's a coin flip wager

Friendly reminder to all Euro bros you should be betting UFC and you're leaving money on the table if you're not.

it just feels as extreme jewery when there's no clear favourite and they take 10% on both teams

Lmao these big teams are so fixed 90% of them are draws

It's literally a coin flip tho. It's binary. One team covers the spread, one does not. If the house offered even money they wouldn't make a profit.

post picks instead of lecturing

i dont expect them to offer even money, just 1.95 odds on both teams would suffice and they would still make a profit

CHELSEA YOU FUCKS REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

ALERTA

Circulo +5.5 vs. Coindeguesa and moneylione

Also the U120.5, I have the game at 57-50 Circulo

Guatemalan League

No bookie offers 1.95 on a 2-outcome wager, there's not enough meat on the bone. You'd take in $22 in bets and pay out $21. No bookie can survive on 4.5% margins

Who the fuck takes these bets? I have 8 apps in my state and none offer Guatemalan basketball

Bovada, any offshore book.

So this is the power of /bet/

Chelsea should have won, the mother fuckers. Can't finish anything.

This is why soccer is by far the worst sport to bet. The better team fails to win all the fucking time. Chelsea dominated the game and the bet loses. At best you did DNB and got your money back

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Thanks, for tomorrow I like over 22.5 for the same odds in Fokina - Tiafoe. I'm also considering Kecmanovic to win 2-0 over Basilashvili since Basilashvili really has been terrible for a longer while now.

Soccer is fucking stupid. Basketball is simply a stochastic process that relies on a pre-defined definition of team quality that can be extracted by previous games. We have n realizations determined by how quickly teams play which can also be estimated but you can get a rough estimate and its usually around 140. So random draws from some distribution that is representative of the team.

Soccer is a spatial game with no real realized process. Shots are random and determined heavily by play style and situations that vary between games. Play styles change depending on scores. Even with shots, there is such inconsistency that betting it is pants on head retarded. But instead million of fat British bet on games with loaded odds everyday while chads are hitting longshots because they bet on real sports with realized outcomes that can be very accurately estimated. Soccer is for ants, its for non-sentient beings, its for basic bitches, its for the British.

Ok, in every single thread without exception this drivel. Are you done soon? Your opinion is noted. Thank you very much.
I dont mind if you want to bet on @1.30 favorites in UFC or whatever it is you bet, but why do you obsessively care so much that other people bet another sport than you? Every single thread, multiple times.

Nobody says you have to bet on big team trash games in Premier League if you bet football or pick games where they cant score, or pick the favorite for everything--who if they fail to win "all the time", you should be rich double chancing the underdog/draw and not complain. Nobody expects every tiny little fun bet to win either

Like you expect that in football only, for whatever reason, one should be able to close their eyes, pick a random high profile game in a competitive league with an odds favorite and expect them to win without fail, as you conveniently ignore the dozens of games every day where the favorite does win.
For all anyone can know, the "muh soccer is the worst" is the only thing you do in here.

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I'm the guy you're talking to and I'm not reading any of this lol

Stop betting soccer.

Lay off brits man they only have one sport. It's not like here where we grow up playing and watching 4 or 5 different sports

I'm watching tape on the fights tonight. I saw this line though.
You get better payout betting the over 1 min in this fight than it not going the distance.
Going to investigate how big a can chase sherman is.

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What? That's a massive fuckup by draftkings. -650 is insanely good odds for the fight lasting longer than 60 seconds

That's why inever bet on single outcomes in soccer, instead I bet on who wins the whole season since the randomness averages out and there's o y a handful of potential champs

Sherman is a can but a heavyweight fight with those odds is crazy. Who is going to lay 20 to 1 on a fighter?

Double chance bets are decent but you have to pay a lot of juice for favorite + draw. A +105 3-way favorite will be maybe -320 double chance

model god does it again

idk if there's a worthwhile bet on that romanov fight.
the under 1.5 is at -290
fight ends in round 1 -200

Chase sherman is just showing up for a paycheck after getting a new ufc contract. He even admitted in interviews he's not physically ready to fight. He will get taken down and finished in this fight. It probably happens in the first round but it is insane that the line on rd 1 finish by romanov is -190.

He could honestly shoot in and take sherman down and finish him in the under .5 of the fight but those odds are +215 lol.

not really sure what the bet is.
romanov rounds 1-2 is -450 yet fight doesn't start rd 3 is -500.

The only redeemable thing I saw about chase sherman is that he stopped one of parker porter's takedowns in rd 2. He was taken down at the start of rd 1 by porter though.

sherman looks like a fish out of water on the ground. I think he gets taken down in the first rd and finished there. I am more of a coward though so i just think the romanov rd 1-2 at -450 is the better bet even though it is juiced to the gills.

one of the better lines I just noticed for this ufc fight ard is vera finish only at -115.
Vera gets the vast majority of his wins via finish and has only lost decisions in all of his ufc fights.
He is very durable and and good grappling. He did better vs jose aldo than rob font did.
Vera has never been knockedown in his ufc career and he has good cardio to survive in a fight.
The problem with vera is that he absorbs more strikes than he lands; rob font also has more volume and better striking differential than him. So if this fight goes to a decision, on paper, rob font wins.
This bet seems like free money.

Alternatively, you could bet Rob font deicision and then bet vera rd 4 / rd 5 win.
This would have a payout of -125 if you split the money 5/4 in favor of rob font vs vera late finish, under the condition of rob font winning a decision.
If vera wins in rd 4/5 you get +411 odds payout. quite juicy.
I'm not sure if chito can win a decision. I'm going to watch tape closer and see if there's anything there.
I think chito did start to take over in the aldo fight in rd 2. In rd 3 aldo back packed him and won the round.

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For sherman vs romanov, again.
sherman was taken down near the end of rd 1 vs parker porter, taken down at 3:42 on timer vs colier and finished afterwards.
He likes to throw low kicks without much of a setup and people just grab his leg and push him back to take him down.
He did vs porter and he did it vs colier.
He is a can that was going to fight in boxing so he will probably do it again vs romanov, or just get double legged throwing a punch.

Another decent bet is gerald meerschart finish only monley line at +110.
He has a high finish rate and the guy he is fighting is a decision machine.

pretty trash card but heres my ufc picks

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Can someone from the Romanian mafia tell me this game is rigged in favor of Gaz Metan? This shit is worth around 100.0 (Gaz Metan hasn't won in 14 matches irrc)

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Thankfully Kecmanovic won that first set tiebreak so he could close it out in the second set.

Nah. Sepsi are a nasty team at home. 5-0 6-0 according to my model

What is happening to Gaz Metan anyway? It stood its ground on 1st division for years and now it's being BTFO like a punching bag.

owner was a crook who didn't payed the players for like 6 months or sth, so everybody from the first team left. my source in Medias says the club will disband at the end of the season

1-1 right now
Let's fucking GOOOOOOOO

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>so everybody from the first team left
Are the current players at least 2nd division-tier?

i also like today
Hajduk Split
Schalke
and U-BT in basket

except schalke they're all massive massive favourites, but i said a thousand times how these games are to be bet. speculating. doesn't matter they're 1.01 to win pregame. hajduk 0-0 at min 60? 1 goal hajduk at ~1.60 please. U-BT in basket goes 10 points down in 1st quarter? getting a comeback at ~1.30. (this is how pros bet)

more predictions for the weekend coming soon. i've been retired [as a tipster] for the past week, but i'm making a comeback for the end of this season (i mean their football season, cause for us, gamblers, this game never stops)

did you get anything? it's 1-1 now with the help of a penalty. it's still a home win

they're 17 y.olds brah

2-1 for Sepsi.
It's fucking over

Ya I'd do finish only too. Jotko is a boring point fighter and almost definitely wins a decision if it goes 3 rounds. Meerschaert can sub anyone if it goes to the mat

>Kecmanovic
Went for ML , not so good odds, but is something.

Agree with all except Fili. He's probably better than Brito but I'll take +190 against a guy who has been in UFC too long and never been a contender

breece hall first RB drafted free moni?

just remember when i say finish only, i mean the scorecards = no action bet ; it refunds your money if the fight goes to a decision.

3-1 for Sepsi
I just lost 9 bucks, fuck Romania. Any gipsy could have cursed Sepsi to win on this bet, but they were too lazy to do it.

Since Rommy said 4-0 was likely and Sepsis had a goal VARd, the bookie finally coughed up the -1.5 handicap marked with 15 min left so I figured I shall fish for the 3-1 result, you could have done the same as well.

Since Hajduk got equalized its time to watch for livebets, but they seem to have been sleeping for a little bit and not playing as well as their @1.08 pre-game favorite odds would indicate, so Im gonna try to get them to win when its above @1.65

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who else feeling sevilla-cadiz to end in a draw?

Stop taking teams to win, take them to score one more