/bet/

Yeah but was wondering what spread you consider best for the risk/reward

I'd say +6.5 is about 72% expected hit rate while the moneyline is ~60%. 11.5 is only 80% so there's some diminishing returns.

My book doesn't offer alt lines on this game so I dunno the actual payouts.

In general +6.5 is good for covering shenanigans when the better team loses by a small amount and there is late game fouling.

Alright, thanks. Will throw a tiny bit on pure ML and then also a bit on the +6.5 handicap.

You're all going to fade UFC picks after last week but here's a winner:

Baeza vs Fialho ITD. Also taking Fialho by KO. Baeza has great hands but he gets rocked in every fight. Someone is getting KO'd

Based Wolves saved the day after Bayern betrayed

>Cavs sucked, Dippers choked away a 10 point lead in the 4th
Cavs covered the spread and Clips were up long enough to get a decent cash out

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Solid hedge

Griezmann fouled 0.5 @1.60
Atlético Mineiro to win against America @1.40
Rivel plate to win @1.44
Rangers FC 1x @1.25
Inter to win against Spezia @1.33
Salah + Luiz Díaz 2.5 shots on target @ 1.90
Colo Colo to win against Alianza Lima @1.27
@12.94

What do you think about this bros? Pretty retarded?

Thought it was lost already. Very sneaky last minute cover. Thanks for the shout. But I think I'll definitely take more generous handicaps even if the returns aren't as juicy.

Chimaev vs Burns was a bad beat. I'm in

Don't like the shots on target at all. Salah isn't starting and Liverpool already has a 2 goal lead so they shouldn't be too desperate to attack at any price.

Liverpool over 1.5 1H goals. They'll end it early. You're all welcome.

Rublev with a huge potential choke. If De Minaur breaks his serve here for the 5-5 I I think he will win. Not going to take him however until I actually see that he breaks.

Rublev barely holds onto his serve to close out it out. Had to save 3 break points. Was up 5-1 before.

>river plate
Something tells me Fortaleza is going to park the bus , gonna be difficult for river.

>colo colo - alianza
That low odds hints an easy match for colo-colo but I don't think is the case. I Don't know much about those teams tho.

City ML
Liverpool ML

Suck a dick firmino. Easy finish and he decides to play a shitty ball across the box

>scored a brace after the break
That's what you get for betting on liverpoo. Tonight i only have jurgen kuck masturbating over 0.5 times while sadio mane is shagging his wife @1.04

Arbitrage opp on this. I'm seeing +100/-140 yes/no on one book and +140/-190 on another. If it keeps moving it'll be literal free money

God fucking damn it mate!! I went with his usual favourite, mane, and he decides to pick konate as his bull tonight... I'm so fucking angry right now. I can't catch a break and win a bet. What's next, norgay afterbooming some ticket on some ligue 2 team scoring in 2nd half? Please tell me there's no ligue 2 games going on right now, i'll literally lose it. The only thing calming me right now is all the r*dditors losing their monies on liverpoop -1 while they celebrate the qualifier

I'm a lifelong river fan since last year and watched most of their games. Tell me one team that isn't parking the bus against them. I have the same feeling, but they're still winning.

Think Ruud - Dimitrov tomorrow could be an over matchup. Ruud looked shaky and I think he got a bit lucky that Rune ran out of gas after all his recent matches.

expected a little bit more balls from city. They looked tired. GG tho.

Racing , defensa and other teams.

>they're still winning.
Likely, but I don't feel like putting a unit on that .

enough for Dimitrov ml? or wait for livebet?.

Defensa got picked apart and could've been 2-5 by half time

Would only take Dimitrov to win a set pre-match. Don't have that much faith in him after some of his recent showings but I think he can at least put up a fight.

Keldon Johnson Over 29.5 PRA

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>2.15
going for that. Livebet is out of question match is at 4am.

Also like over 22.5 games for Musetti - Schwartzman @2. Expecting a pretty close match with how Musetti performs on clay.

on

Remember tomorrow is the game between roma and bodo "/" glimt, who had some sort of fight in the locker rooms at the end of the last same, so the word on the grapevine is mourinho's side hates these norwegians almost as much as i hate norgay. They've met in group stages, first losing 6-1 away but playing reserves in defence in freezing cold, then fluke 2-2 at home, and then this fluke 2-1 away loss, after leading first. So now roma has the chance to wipe all that embarassment tomorrow with the 4th and most important game, which will decide the qualyfing team. So roma needs a win, and the good news are the whole team is available (including zaniolo etc). Mourinho will play their best 11 no doubt. Meanwhile, in the redditors' corner, norway provided another useless piece of information, claiming a few of their players picked up an injury in the last league game, but didn't mentioned who or if they're any good, but forecasted an "interesting" game. Perhaps if "bodo/glimt" have a corner in the opening minutes where they'll have 2 [harmless] blocked shots and 1 shot waaay off target norway will see the stats and report here he didn't expect such domination early in the game by "bodø". What i did found thou is that their [r*dditor scum] coach won't be on the bench. All in all, the bet is roma to qualify @1.55 . I just lost my first free money prediction this year, and i said if roma doesn't qualify i'll have to put an end to my tipster carreer, so you know i'm a man of my word, therefore this a must win. Plus, we need to beat them at 0, because in case "glimt" scores, norgay will post a 2k unannounced slip on them to score over 0.5, which will make all of us go mad. The biggest asset is we play at home
Long story short

Bet roma to qualify @1.55

- Nelu

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I FUCKING HATE HORSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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The uncertain players for Bodø to see if they are playing or not in lineups are Moe and Pellegrino. Bodø manager has been suspended and cant coach from the sidelines.
Solbakken seems to be back again (who was sick for the 2-1 game).
And youre right, Bodø over 0.5 and/or smaller on over 1.5 is what I will be considering live, if Roma looks dominating then I might bet something with Roma instead.
It's not like Bodø/Glimt to just only sit back and let Roma do what they want and hope to protect their lead for 90 min

heh I was totally wrong, mineiro choked anyway.
0 hits today. The lucky charm is over.

redpill me on betting. i have no idea what any of this terminology means

Rennes ML x Monaco

Alright, the main reason i'm confident in roma, besides obviously being better on paper, is as i said playing at home and this time the stadium is sold out and i heard they consider this the game of the season (and want revenge). I guess this final duel will decide who's the better tipster. Fair play norway for all the times i insulted you i have indirectly learned sth from your style of play (even thou you never said when your bets backfired).. what surprises me is how someone winning so much haven't got limited already .. it's my case as well. never been limited (the only bookies i'm restricted to walk in is a place where i've cursed at a cashier 4 years ago. and threw a chair in the tv)

I like inter to win . I'll put my barn on it. They won't miss the opportunity to move in first place. If roma goes through, then IF inter won't win i'll retire (so i'll probably be stuck here forever zz...)

fucking hell, what is this dumb fuck doing

The reason the game will be so interesting, is because I think its uncertain what will happen.
Have no idea how big of an impact it is to not have your manager on the sideline or how well they can prep before the game to make up for that situation.
Glimt have scored in every game against Roma, and even pre-game the odds on Bodø/Glimt over 0.5 is higher than the odds on Roma to qualify coming from behind.
Although it is true that one or two of Bodø/Glimts goal in the 2-1 win were lucky, that does not take away from the fact that Roma were only able to score 1 legal goal that game.
They scored once in 6-1 defeat with lots of B-team players for much of the game.
And they scored 2 in a 2-2 at home.
Which means that 2-1, 1-2, and 2-2 are now like expected results when these two teams meet.
As in, other results would be surprising.
It's not like Roma crushed Salermitana either.
I think 2-1 for Roma after original 90 minutes is a very likely result, taking it to extra time, but in that instance, @1.55 seems too low for Roma to qualify. Roma should have a 2-0, 3-0 or 3-1 result after 90 min for @1.55 to be worth it imo, which would be anomalous results.
Then perhaps one could mention that Bodø/Glimt has not lost a game in their last 35 games.
Despite all this, Roma /should/ qualify, but it doesnt seem like something one should put a lot of money on. It's a sort of bet with seemingly no value that you feel should win, but it leaves a funny taste in your mouth.
After 2-1, I think the most likely resullts at 90 min is 2-2, in which case Glimt qualifies.
The first goal of the game will be very important, and Bodø should fight for scoring first in the first half if they can catch Roma being too ambitious..
Feels like whoever scores first will qualify.
Since it is the deciding game, one might speculate it is a day where an anomalous result could happen, as one side may have to take risks
Wanna see a little bit + lineup before i maybe betting small

he's playing awful, unlucky, he's had enough shots but literally all of them are not falling baka

spurs goes out like this, shame

HEATING UP

Basics
American odds: Moneyline is the payout for a team to win the game straight up. Point spread is the 'handicap' bet where two teams have equal odds regardless of ability. 90% of point spread wagers will pay -110 odds, which means you have to bet 110 to win 100. Of course you can wager whatever you want, but you'll win 10% less than even money.

Point spread example: NE Patriots -6.5 vs NY Jets. You could bet $11 on the Patriots -6.5 to win $10. This means you literally subtract 6.5 from the Patriots final score to find how the bet is judged. If the Patriots win by 7 or more, you win the bet. If the Patriots win by fewer than 7, or lose the game outright, you lose the bet.

What else do you need to know?

Absolutely fucking based. Undeterred by the haters.

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oh look another ufc fag posting a less than 1.5 pick that has a 50% chance of hitting

begging you lot to stop posting ufc picks
they never hit

fuck off MMA picks are the best on /bet/

Hello lads
Tempted by Bodo, even West Ham to qualify
Might make a "safe" with Roma, Lyon and maybe PSV to qf because Leicester seems shit in away games
And maybe some livebet on underdogs
Idk

>Roma currently @1.35
>value ???

Good calls!, day saved.

Roma is at something like 1,6 to qf
Which is decent
But the value is on bodo

Yeah, somehow Schwartzman remembered how to hold serve after 6 lost service games in a row. Sorry for advising against Dimitrov ML but I preferred to only risk taking a set for what were still good odds.

Really don't see the point of taking a team that has been struggling with the opponent all season in a tournament that isn't even particularly prestigious for these low odds. You can get stuff like BTTS in Atalanta - RB Leipzig for pretty much the same odds. That's not saying I can't see Roma qualifying but why take such low odds for this kind of risk?