I decided to do a little calculation to try and predict whether Endgame will overtake Avatar.
I used an assumed drop rate of 60% per week (the second week dropped 60.6%, but the third actually only dropped 56.6%, but I thought 60% was a good rough figure to work with).
By my calculation, Endgame should overtake Avatar during its 7th week (that's about three weeks from now).
What do you think, guys? Do you think Endgame will overtake Avatar?
Pic related is my calculation. At the end of the 7th week (that's three weeks from the end of this week), Endgame should theoretically have a higher gross.
But maybe the drop rate will be higher than 60% for the coming weeks, perhaps if I was better versed in movie finances then I might know that.
What do you think guys?
Probably will. Disney can always push it over if needed.
When Far from home comes out, it will probably give it the final little push to make it to the finish line.
Endgame is on track to finish with 2.8 billion, with a margin of +/- 25 million. So ~85% chance of beating Avatar.
It's going to drop harder because China stops showing it this Thursday and it will have too much competition in the next month which will reduce its screens.
Not sure what you mean by that.
Could do. Or maybe it will have the opposite effect, that everyone will see Far From Home instead of Endgame. But sure, it could cause people to rewatch Endgame.
That sounds like it could be plausible. Do you have a source for this figure?
>China stops showing it this Thursday
Didn't know that. Do you have a source for this?
Can you stretch that to 20 weeks (I believe that's how long Infinity War was in theaters) so we'll get an estimate of the final gross?
You guys are weird.
have sex
Sure. From this estimation of a drop rate of 60% per week, it should come out as $2,795,780,938.28 after 20 weeks.
Whether this is accurate, I don't know. If you look at pic related you'll see that the estimated take for week 20 is $46.11, across the entire world. So that's like three or four people watching it across the entire world in one week. Which wouldn't really make sense, because would movie theatres really be screening a movie still if there are literally zero people, on average, turning up to see it?
This guy thinks it will be $2.8 bn though - - which fits with this estimate, but I don't know what his source is.
I just wanted to predict how much it might make. I suppose if I wanted to make a better model, I should look at how other movies have fared with their drop rates over several weeks, instead of just assuming that Endgame will drop by a steady 60% every week. Avatar actually had a very weird run, where it actually rose on the previous week a couple of times. But Avatar was a bit weird because it was released in a sleepy December 2009, during the Christmas holidays (so parents were off work and could take their kids to see it) and had very little competition.
I don't think Endgame really has any real competition in the cinema right now.
Your calculations are incorrect because they don't take domestic and overseas separately
It's not gonna be at 2.724 by next weekend
It's gonna be around 2.67b
The gross for week 3 was 128 million, not 268.
>Not sure what you mean by that.
I think he means Disney could chip in the rest of the ticket money to push it to the top. Shady, but I guess it's possible (especially if they actually did what people say they did with Captain Marvel).
You did it wrong. It didn't make 268M last week.
Here are the actual estimatives with a drop of 60%. Fortunately it won't be a drop of 60% every week because then it would be fucked. But it's still gonna be a tight race.
All things considered, whether it ends up above or below Avatar, we can expect a close call.
It does - Detective Pikachu provides a little competition, but John Wick 3 was even more significant, usurping Endgame's top spot in the last week. And there are probably other movies coming up too.
I will admit that I used the ~60% drop rate from the US takings (since that's what Box Office Mojo gave me), and applied it worldwide. But I don't see much reason why the international takings would have a significantly different drop rate from US takings? So why do you think it's incorrect?
Why do you think that? It's already on $2.617 billion. And it has both this weekend and next weekend to hit that predicted $2.724 billion figure.
Do you have a source? Maybe you are right, but if that's the case then I think its international drop must have been much larger than its domestic US drop.
That seems a bit crazy. Surely that would only make sense if they thought that "highest grossing movie" would help media sales (e.g. Blu Ray) to the extent that it covers their cost of buying tickets. I would have thought that would be unlikely.
You're showing $2.616 bn for the end of week 4, but Box Office Mojo shows that as the current total, and we haven't even had this weekend yet.
Perhaps you are right that week 3 didn't make that much, but I'm wondering where you got that $127m figure from? If it's accurate then it must have surely dropped internationally much more than it did in the US.
Yeah I think it will probably be close. Competition is likely to decide it, and also if fans consciously go out to see it again to help it beat Avatar (which could happen), then that could end up making the difference too.
this is the last week you get Avengers in cinemas you dumb fuck
Captain Marvel is in its 11th week and is still in cinemas, despite Endgame cannibalising it. Avatar lasted for 34 weeks - although to be fair it was only in 1 US cinema in its last week. But it still had a long run.
bump
It's gonna win.
Look at the foreign totals for each individual country for Endgame and compare them to IW. They've all made significantly more than IW this week, and the accepted metric is that it needed to do WORSE than IW to barely lose.
Reddit wins, unfortunately.