His crazy luck ran out

His crazy luck ran out

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Their XG for was about 9 over expected, and XG against about 5 below what they should have conceded.

They were due to revert to the mean eventually, I just hope they fall for the meme and give him a contract

This

People mocked xG. I said they wouldn't score for 5 games while it normalised.

2 down.

how much should i bet 8-1 aggregate barca?

>xG
Cringe

Justice for Moyes

I dont know guys. He had to play without Poodab today. It's hard to play without one of your squad leaders

It's a good method for seeing whether a team is a genuinely top team, or a decent team going through a purple patch/lucky period.

Messi is way over expected xG is he lucky too?

>I just hope they fall for the meme and give him a contract

this, i want another season of no team coming close to competing with us

That's literally not how it works though

But Pogba was the best player on the pitch

Funny how that's literally how it's working

He's not "way over", he's 5 over, and that's because he's arguably the greatest player of all time.

Can XG accurately model everything? No. But it's a pretty good indicator of when a team is genuinely great at creating chances/defending, or when it's getting an abnormally high conversion/miss rate that will unlikely be sustained

I don't know what his xG vs. goals numbers looked like in past seasons, but he's kept it up so long that I think you have to conclude he's just exceptional (obviously)
it's when someone or some team is massively at odds with theirs over a 5-10 game spell and you can't put your finger on why that it might be a useful number

Reminder.

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If his job is looking like he isnt actually playing then, i must say, he had an amazing match

It just means he gets into goal scoring positions a lot, which is good.

He's lucky he is playing Leganes, Huesca, Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano week in and week out

I'm just saying bruh. They were obviously running way too hot. Also going from sitting deep doing fuck all to 150% running all game has had it's toll and it's fucking brilliant

No, because it doesn't factor in individual ability. An elite player like Messi should be over xG. That guy is a retard who doesn't understand the metric and statistics in general

>Comparing the finishing rate of Lukaku and Rashford to Messi

Fuck off retard

It's nothing to do with that. They're professional footballers.
It's not like Ole took over a team with Paul McGrath and his gang of pissheads.
They're fit enough to run about for an hour and a half.
It's just that the xG is now normalising; it's statistics and long term it's always correct.
Flip a coin and it's heads 9 times at the start eventually you're going to end up with an even amount of tails.

xG is literally based on the average player so it's normal that messi scores more than the xG he has

I mean my degree is literally in Physics, but sure.

United have been scoring far more than is expected from the level of chance they've been creating, whilst simultaneously conceding far less than expected from the chances they concede.

Now whilst De Gea is arguably the best keeper in the world and that might keep up (although look what happened earlier in the season when he dropped to mediocre standards for a while), it's incredibly unlikely United's forwards will continue to be able to finish at GOAT tier standards reliably.

What they saw today was what they can expect to happen more going forward, games where their forwards can't carry on that level, and where the opposition doesn't miss many clear cut chances, or their keeper makes reliable big saves.

United have always been an extremely lucky team

>xG
Is this, what is like to have autism?

>It's nothing to do with that. They're professional footballers.
All you have to say is that you're utterly clueless on the subject.
And I'm fucking agreeing with you you moron, it obviously normalises but you don't get 9 heads then hit tails then get 8 tails immediately after. So they're gonna be up and down but not having such consistent over or under performance. Maybe they go on a shit run, maybe they go on an average one, a switch isn't just flipped.

>I mean my degree is literally in Physics, but sure.
Sure has a lot to do with understanding statistics. Maybe you're not the same retard as like I thought you were, but you're still retarded.

>It's just that the xG is now normalising
No, again top teams always have more points than the expected points they should have because they have top players who naturally are better than the average players,

>United have been scoring far more than is expected from the level of chance they've been creating, whilst simultaneously conceding far less than expected from the chances they concede
that's because they have above average players user

reddit thread

And United are proving you all right aren't they?

Above average, yes, Messi tier? No.

None of United's forwards have shown throughout their career the ability to sustain that level of finishing, so it's unlikely mid-season that they just all of a sudden increased that quickly in ability, that also just happened to coincide with a new manager and their defence also overperforming

You've lost it

>it's statistics and long term it's always correct.
statistics are 'correct' long-term because they are adjust based on what happens. if man utd continue to score goals and win games then their xG will adjust to reflect that... its not magic

For Wolves maybe

That's not how xG works.
Every player is given the same xG from the same position.
Messi shooting from 10 yards out results in the same xG as Matip shooting from the same position.

according to xPoints they are where they belong
understat.com/league/EPL/2018

No they won't, it's based upon quality of chances created. Unless their number and quality of chances created improves, then the XG would stay the same.

Recently United have been outscoring their quality/number of chances created by an incredibly large margin

they played shitter teams in a row tho'

Lukaku is a consistent finisher in and out of a Utd jersey

Poonited are the kind of jammy team that tends to overperform those xG advanced statistics (for many reasons, pic related).

That being said, they are still a deeply flawed team in many areas, and if your xG is so deep in the shitter like theirs is, even outperforming it on a regular basis might only mean a 5th place finish or so every year desu

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Bump

yeah, this is why xG is cancer
these fags just don't stop going on about it

I remember he took the Hull job, had crazy luck at the start of the season and it went poo from there, the Phelan effect

>manure without ferguson

wow it's fucking nothing

>I just lost ten times so I'm guaranteed to win now!
This is unironically what you are claiming and it's wrong. Yanited won't do so badly that they "make up for" their good spell recently, they'll just stop winning everything.

In 2019, Man City has 25 goals and 26.19 xG in League. Wow City must be full of slightly below average players.

Chaos luck, you mean

reminder that manu are allowed to defend with their hands

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Yes, look
understat.com/player/618
understat.com/player/5543
understat.com/player/619
understat.com/player/750
understat.com/player/337
only aguero is the really talented striker, also the ultra high possession often means less goals than the supposed xG

This is what happens when Americans try watching football. Everything becomes statistics

i really hope this is bait

Wtf even is xG

xtreme gore

Messi xg is 0.89 and his g90 is 1.08, he's a severe outlier. An exceptional goalscorer in top form is only 0.05 above, (See Aguero or Cristiano who are 0.04 and 0.03) , Messi is nuts and should not be even included in discussions.

extra goalkeepers

xhaka granit
he rates every player in his free time

Probably because he’s a free-kick specialists.

Reminder xg is fucking bullshit. A game of football is not just the shot taken and xg also makes no discernment between if Messi or my grandma takes the shot

It also doesn't care if i'm in the goal or De Gea is. That's the main reason United concede so few goals and outperform xg so much. De Gea is world class and way above your average keeper.

xg can give you a small glimpse into what happened in a game but to follow it as the gosple of truth is fucking retarded . For example imagine a situation where a team scores early and then defends the lead for the rest of the match. Their xg would be shit but you have to look at the game flow in it's entirety to judge shit like that. xg is way too simplistic of a view of football.

hahaha, told ya

why dont they just fire him, then immedietly sign him back so his effect goes on???

This is why they don’t make physicists manage soccer teams

I personally only use xG to see if a player is good or not.

>degree in physics
Cecks out that you understand fuck all about statistics.

>Xg

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underrated response